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1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

The latest runs are all systems go for sure. And the trend has not stopped. But it all has to come together just right. The real estate is small in the big picture. Love the short leads but always know and respect the risks.

 

It's not just how the vort passes but how the trough bends while it's passing that has me maybe more bullish than usual.  Perhaps I don't remember the early mo sys correctly as I was in "we'll always bust" mode still after being beat down for so long.  Maybe I'm overcompensating.. for some reason this one sparked my interest as soon as it showed up.  The added impact of the sharp temp gradient etc could help with the fun.. not to mention the temps look awesome. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

4-8 is tough but reasonable in this type of setup.  There's plenty that can go wrong and getting this to be a foot+ widespread is  probably way more difficult.. but pulling .4-.6 liquid won't be impossible here if the Americans are right.  I can't wait to see the new CRAS.

follow the vort.

 

I take back what I said about ji/admin.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

5 days ago there were 3-4 gefs members showing a pop.But it got lost as usual but came full circle for now. Ns is stupid hard to resolve at medium leads. I've definitely gotten better at not hugging ops 24-7 and it's helped my nerves and thought processes. I thank Wes, wxusaf, and wnwxluvr and some other folks for thinking more cognitively and not watching op tv.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Want to bet that someone in Northern MD gets 10"?. You know Sparky is guaranteed 8".

10" is possible.. but probably close to the upper limit as we see now. No way you can say anyone is getting that for sure with the Euro as it is. If it comes in dry at 0z it's an issue IMO.  I don't think it will.. but it's not going to be super wet either. 

 

Wildly guessing is one thing but there's no reason to totally hug the models that are still moving into a solution. I'd lean toward the wetter scenarios given the look at multiple levels.

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

Want to bet that someone in Northern MD gets 10"?. You know Sparky is guaranteed 8".

 

it isnt that....It is that people get so carried away and lost in model fantasy world...12 hours ago, we were talking about how this is the type of system that will have limited moisture.....

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

10" is possible.. but probably close to the upper limit as we see now. No way you can say anyone is getting that for sure with the Euro as it is. If it comes in dry at 0z it's an issue IMO.  I don't think it will.. but it's not going to be super wet either. 

 

Wildly guessing is one thing but there's no reason to totally hug the models that are still moving into a solution. I'd lean toward the wetter scenarios given the look at multiple levels.

As i said in my post IF the Euro comes more in line, if not i would be a lunatic to bet. I do not have 1% of the meteorological ability of you or Matt but living in this area my whole life gives me a good perspective on what storms can do.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

it isnt that....It is that people get so carried away and lost in model fantasy world...12 hours ago, we were talking about how this is the type of system that will have limited moisture.....

I agree but you cannot deny that the model trends have been amazing and that if the Euro come more in line it is not lunacy to think someone in Northern MD will get 10" from this. Plus if we get the upper end of current modeled QPF that would give someone 10".

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

it isnt that....It is that people get so carried away and lost in model fantasy world...12 hours ago, we were talking about how this is the type of system that will have limited moisture.....

Ns is fingernails on a chalkboard. No long track and all timing and placement. If we score this one the next one will be approached as a "remember the last one!" And then after the next event and we clear our sidewalks with a broom we'll be like "what happened?"

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

I agree but you cannot deny that the model trends have been amazing and that if the Euro come more in line it is not lunacy to think someone in Northern MD will get 10" from this. Plus if we get the upper end of current modeled QPF that would give someone 10".

 

The thing is I don't give 2 sh--its what someone in N MD gets....I dont care if they get a T or 40".....All I care about is my backyard

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