1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[Ji]

the GFS isnt that much different from RGEM.

 

Has a 998 off VA coast. RGEM had a 993 i think

 

[Bob Chill]

To your credit you have been saying that you liked this for a while now. I honestly hope we get an area wide 4-8" so we can all celebrate equally.

I think best case has been presented already so 2-4/3-5 would be optimistic. 4-8 is a tough bar with a ns only system. The one kicker is the really cold air pressing behind. We don't get the combo often at all. We're not losing anything to sh!tty bl and ground temps. That's a big plus imby and dc metro folks.

If rapid development verifies somebody is seeing flashes and hearing rumbles

[DDweatherman]

Euro will do something like .15 or .20 that still leaves some doubt in people's minds. 

I think many would take that as a stride. 

[Ji]

we are a northern stream snow town

[snow.]

I'm honestly surprised the GFS went this way... still think more than 2-4 is pushing it (again talking area wide)... will have to see if this holds thru 12Z tomorrow... then I might start to get excited.

 

agreed

[DDweatherman]

Actual GGEM has come in snowy, best run yet for the model. 

 

[Scraff]

Modeled snow > real snow. Makes everyone happy until the EURO S**Ts the bed. So I'm going to bed on that note....and hoping for the best.

[Ji]

the GFS lost the 72 degree late January day

[Bob Chill]

Yeah, I think the Euro will come around. It's been off its game for a while.. or it seems. I will always worry about the north trend when there is a system like this. But whatever.. I should live in N MD I guess.

If the nutty runs continue the euro will make 3 gradual steps up and the nutty runs will take some steps back before gametime

Nw areas are always most likely to jackpot so hardly a shock. In this specific case we stand a chance at not being jv but second string varsity. Cold smoke man. Cold f'n smoke

[Ji]

the Euro is like the parent that comes home at night after the kids have been screwing around all day long and lays down the law

[Ian]

I think best case has been presented already so 2-4/3-5 would be optimistic. 4-8 is a tough bar with a ns only system. The one kicker is the really cold air pressing behind. We don't get the combo often at all. We're not losing anything to sh!tty bl and ground temps. That's a big plus imby and dc metro folks.

If rapid development verifies somebody is seeing flashes and hearing rumbles

 

4-8 is tough but reasonable in this type of setup.  There's plenty that can go wrong and getting this to be a foot+ widespread is  probably way more difficult.. but pulling .4-.6 liquid won't be impossible here if the Americans are right.  I can't wait to see the new CRAS.

[Ji]

If the nutty runs continue the euro will make 3 gradual steps up and the nutty runs will take some steps back before gametime

Nw areas are always most likely to jackpot so hardly a shock. In this specific case we stand a chance at not being jv but second string varsity. Cold smoke man. Cold f'n smoke

having snow fall in lower 20's is something that we just dont do. That might be the best part of the entire storm

[HighStakes]

I remember when it was tony pan, tommy tassylemeyer, and Justin berk on the same channel, now that was a team, very accurate when they were together for a lot of years

Berk was young and enthusiastic, but definitely a lot more grounded in those days. I guess Tony and Tom would have to reel him in from time to time.

[ravensrule]

4-8 is tough but reasonable in this type of setup.  There's plenty that can go wrong and getting this to be a foot+ widespread is  probably way more difficult.. but pulling .4-.6 liquid won't be impossible here if the Americans are right.  I can't wait to see the new CRAS.

Nice, i like the real Ian instead of the trolling one.

[ravensrule]

having snow fall in lower 20's is something that we just dont do. That might be the best part of the entire storm

And the wind behind the storm is almost as exciting, we rarely do that around here.

[Bob Chill]

having snow fall in lower 20's is something that we just dont do. That might be the best part of the entire storm

No doubt man. I was stoked yesterday morning about 1-2 that doesn't melt in my mulch.

[vinylfreak89]

4-8 is tough but reasonable in this type of setup.  There's plenty that can go wrong and getting this to be a foot+ widespread is  probably way more difficult.. but pulling .4-.6 liquid won't be impossible here if the Americans are right.  I can't wait to see the new CRAS.

 

I hope you're trolling... seriously a foot?

[DDweatherman]

I hope you're trolling... seriously a foot?

Re-read his post, then come back. 

[Ji]

hmm...GGEM at 108...repeat?

 

[CAPE]

Nice

 

[Ian]

I hope you're trolling... seriously a foot?

That's not what I said but I know people always shoot for the biggest possible scenario. In this case I think that is more than 2-4/3-5 but I am talking a max stripe not everyone per se.

[Bob Chill]

4-8 is tough but reasonable in this type of setup. There's plenty that can go wrong and getting this to be a foot+ widespread is probably way more difficult.. but pulling .4-.6 liquid won't be impossible here if the Americans are right. I can't wait to see the new CRAS.

The latest runs are all systems go for sure. And the trend has not stopped. But it all has to come together just right. The real estate is small in the big picture. Love the short leads but always know and respect the risks.

[vinylfreak89]

Re-read his post, then come back. 

 

yea i totally misread that.h7 looks.... ok... i don't see any crazy banding setup. Omegas are decentish... could see someone pulling around 8-10 out of it in the best case.

[ravensrule]

That's not what I said but I know people always shoot for the biggest possible scenario. In this case I think that is more than 2-4/3-5 but I am talking a max stripe not everyone per se.

If the Euro comes in line a little more i bet someone in our subforum sees 10".

[jnis]

having snow fall in lower 20's is something that we just dont do. That might be the best part of the entire storm

No doubt. The last really cold snow I can recall was 2003.

[paxpatriot]

All hail Ji, new administrator?

[winter_warlock]

hmm if euro comes around I wonder if NWS might issue watches in the  morning?? hmm

[mitchnick]

the Euro is like the parent that comes home at night after the kids have been screwing around all day long and lays down the law

you're not going to convince me you did anything other than laugh at your parents when they did that to you...

[winter_warlock]

Berk was young and enthusiastic, but definitely a lot more grounded in those days. I guess Tony and Tom would have to reel him in from time to time.

yep, berk was a snow lover  back then, but there wasn't any team to come close to them 3  back then

[ravensrule]

you're not going to convince me you did anything other than laugh at your parents when they did that to you...

He makes up for it. He spanks his kids whenever we have a bad model run.