1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[Ian]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:20 PM, gymengineer said:

Well, your point is a good one, and still stands... just pointing out that liquid totals from 2/5-6/10 were totally wonky for DCA, etc. 

Area-wide, liquid totals for 2/5-6/10 were actually 2.5-3.5" (Sterling reported over 3", and Cocorahs, etc. support the 2.5-3" totals), while they were around 1.5" for 1/26/11. 

yeah, not sure why they never corrected that number. no way only 1.5" liquid fell there especially given it was mild to start snowmageddon.

[yoda]

12z RGEM is tasteh.  997 off NE NC at 33... goes up the coast off of Ocean City at 996 at hr 36 to 994 at 39 as it slowly moves away (3 hr increment movements)

 

12mm QPF IMO... ~0.45" QPF

[87storms]

I'm updated to 3-7" per nws

[ravensrule]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:23 PM, yoda said:

12z RGEM is tasteh.  997 off NE NC at 33... goes up the coast off of Ocean City at 996 at hr 36 to 994 at 39 as it slowly moves away (3 hr increment movements)

Oh no it was 993 last night off of OC we are screwed.

[clueless]

  On 1/20/2014 at 2:17 PM, PhineasC said:

We've already had two 4-6" storms this winter.

More like 4ish for me. But not complaining.

[welbane]

Will there be a temps and snowfall contest for this event?

[ravensrule]

A thing of beauty, good for 6-10":

 

[yoda]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:25 PM, ravensrule said:

Oh no it was 993 last night off of OC we are screwed.

 

I like slowly deepening storms as it goes by our latitude

[clueless]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:24 PM, 87storms said:

I'm updated to 3-7" per nws

Kinda big spread. Guess they have their bases covered.

[mappy]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:19 PM, ravensrule said:

 

thanks!

[nj2va]

12z RGEM total QPF for the storm (in inches) for posterity:

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Central Jersey is gonna get smashed.

 

GFS looks good. 

[ravensrule]

Another beauty on the GFS.

[84 Hour NAM]

990 off OC........... thats so beautiful

[TL97]

GFS clearly improved, with .4 to .5" of QPF area wide. Looks very similar to the NAM.

[mappy]

Cobb QPF output for Westminster:

 

12z NAM: .505 12z to 3z

[ravensrule]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:43 PM, mapgirl said:

Cobb QPF output for Westminster:

 

12z NAM: .505 12z to 3z

7-10" with ratios not to shabby.

[AmericanWxFreak]

[clueless]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:33 PM, clskinsfan said:

Central Jersey is gonna get smashed.

 

GFS looks good.

I think I'm okay. Dark blue?

[yoda]

Looks like GFS and NAM are pretty close in snowfall

[nj2va]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:44 PM, ravensrule said:

7-10" with ratios not to shabby.

 

Your 8-10" bet looks good right now.

[Bob Chill]

Wow, perfect suite. This isnt a really a clipper. It's morphed into the very rare northern stream coastal.

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:33 PM, clskinsfan said:

Central Jersey is gonna get smashed.

 

GFS looks good.

Better have a traffic study to see what the effect would be.

This looks like those of us inside the beltway might actually hit 4 (and then some) this time. I've had nothing but 2 to 3 inch events so far this winter.

[ravensrule]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:47 PM, nj2va said:

Your 8-10" bet looks good right now.

Good thing i was too tired to bet you last night .

[clskinsfan]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:47 PM, Bob Chill said:

Wow, perfect suite. This isnt a really a clipper. It's morphed into the very rare northern stream coastal.

 

It's really a perfect run for our area. 500 and 850 cant get any better than modeled. This one is really gonna do it for everybody. About time!

[NoVaWx]

This is the best type of snowstorm - cold temps and a nice little wind.  Hopefully we can get some blowing snow and drifts.

[Ian]

Yeah I'm not calling this a clipper. Don't want to trick ourselves into thinking clippers are good.

[ravensrule]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:53 PM, Ian said:

Yeah I'm not calling this a clipper. Don't want to trick ourselves into thinking clippers are good.

I named it ION yesterday, boy am i good. We should become a forecasting team like JI and DT are.

[nj2va]

  On 1/20/2014 at 3:48 PM, ravensrule said:

Good thing i was too tired to bet you last night .

 

Heck, based on the GFS verbatim, someone in the mountains near Wisp/Canaan/Snowshoe could see a foot.

[snowfan]

This is clearly the snowfan storm I've been feelin' this one long and hard.