KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is all ray's doing by purchasing a flight home. Ray, thanks for taking one for the team... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM and GFS are now well over 12 inches for TTN. only with 20:1 ratios, which won't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wnep through Wednesday 3am lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 only with 20:1 ratios, which won't verify I like your call with 6-10, we see it every storm, ratios are never as high as people think, however there will be mesoscale banding with the frontogenesis we are seeing, so someone in the 6-10 range will finish with 12-15" I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I like your call with 6-10, we see it every storm, ratios are never as high as people think, however there will be mesoscale banding with the frontogenesis we are seeing, so someone in the 6-10 range will finish with 12-15" I believe. That could happen... if the EC isn't right, which only has a half inch of QPF on average versus the 6Z NAM/GFS 0.7". If the EC is more correct, and I'm not saying it is, then the loli's will be in the 10-12 range with most places more like 5-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That could happen... if the EC isn't right, which only has a half inch of QPF on average versus the 6Z NAM/GFS 0.7". If the EC is more correct, and I'm not saying it is, then the loli's will be in the 10-12 range with most places more like 5-9. Yeah, EURO is def. concerning for wanting a foot. How much precip was it forecasting at this range for the 1/3 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, EURO is def. concerning for wanting a foot. How much precip was it forecasting at this range for the 1/3 event? My memory isn't clear, but I don't think it did so great. That said, I'll invoke one of Tony's favorite sayings and say "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trends". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My memory isn't clear, but I don't think it did so great. That said, I'll invoke one of Tony's favorite sayings and say "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trends". Yeah I agree I was just curious, following the models all my life I've seen the same trend over and over again with storms that start at this time. The 6z models look really robust, the 6z RGEM shifts a bit SE, then at 12z we see the NAM/GFS tick SE which I expect will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest wxsim with 6z NAM and 0z GFS for NW Chesco Light Snow by 930am temp 25.4 Heavy Snow by 1230p temp 23.5 (0.6")0.06" w.e. Heavy Snow at 330pm temp 19.0 (2.9")0.24" w.e. Heavy Snow at 630pm temp 15.4 (6.1")0.48" w.e. Mod Snow at 930p temp 12.4 (8.3")0.63" w.e. Snow ends by 11pm temp 11.3 (total snow 9.8")0.73" w.e. Temps remain below 15 Thru Sat AM with a highest temp in next 7 days on Saturday at 25.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Damn, ch 10 (Glenn) very bullish w/ 9-16" in and around a good part of Philly and surrounding areas. Ch3 and Ch6 have 5-10" in approx the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Damn, ch 10 (Glenn) very bullish w/ 9-16" in and around a good part of Philly and surrounding areas. Ch3 and Ch6 have 5-10" in approx the same areas. Gotta get glenn (and LC) posting on here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Damn, ch 10 (Glenn) very bullish w/ 9-16" in and around a good part of Philly and surrounding areas. Ch3 and Ch6 have 5-10" in approx the same areas. I must be doing okay because I did not even look at Glenn and 10 and posted earlier: http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=70227&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Inspired by Tom "phlwx"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I must be doing okay because I did not even look at Glenn and 10 and posted earlier: http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=70227&Itemid=179 That's pretty good. Although not Glenn this morning since he'll probably have a long day I'm sure this is his map. Probably counting on banding along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wxsim now with 6z GFS bumped up snow a bit and temps down Now has 6.1" on ground by 4pm with over 10" by 10pm and ending by 1am with 11.3" with 0.88" w.e. Latest wxsim with 6z NAM and 0z GFS for NW Chesco Light Snow by 930am temp 25.4 Heavy Snow by 1230p temp 23.5 (0.6")0.06" w.e. Heavy Snow at 330pm temp 19.0 (2.9")0.24" w.e. Heavy Snow at 630pm temp 15.4 (6.1")0.48" w.e. Mod Snow at 930p temp 12.4 (8.3")0.63" w.e. Snow ends by 11pm temp 11.3 (total snow 9.8")0.73" w.e. Temps remain below 15 Thru Sat AM with a highest temp in next 7 days on Saturday at 25.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good vertical velocities at 700mb on HRRR @ 3pm, going to be a fun afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HPC snow prob maps and discussion. They are discounting the euro. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HPC snow prob maps and discussion. They are discounting the euro. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html If you translate the probs to amounts they basically think 6-10 inside that green line on the 8" prob map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If you translate the probs to amounts they basically think 6-10 inside that green line on the 8" prob map Yeah. Discussion mentions 4-8 or 6-12 with localized 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'd love to be on Cape Cod & Nantucket Island for this one. Truly Blizzard conditions will exist there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 First MCD for heavy snow MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0404 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...WRN INTO NRN VA...WRN MD...S CNTRL PACONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 211004Z - 211600ZSUMMARY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THEMORNING HOURS...WITH 1"/HR RATES LIKELY OVER ERN WV/WRN VA...WITHSOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 2"/HR BY LATE MORNING. AN EVOLVING HEAVYSNOW BAND WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEGINNING OVER SRNPA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NJ...SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWDACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH MIDLEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE APPALACHIANSBY 18Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER WRN NC...WITHCYCLONE TILTED NWWD WITH HEIGHT /850 MB LOW OVER WRN VA/. AS THISLOW DEEPENS...AN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR WILL BECOME FAVORABLYORIENTED IN REGARD TO TOPOGRAPHY TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTIONFIELDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELYPROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHIELD...WITH LOCALIZED 2"/HRRATES.RADAR TRENDS AS OF 10Z SHOW SOME BANDING ACROSS SRN PA...ALIGNEDWITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY ANDEXPAND EWD LATER TODAY WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES FROM MD/ERN PA INTONEW JERSEY AND SRN NEW YORK WHERE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILLBOTH INTENSIFY AND BE ALIGNED WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLEFOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH...JEWELL.. 01/21/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wnep through Wednesday 3am lol... He is more of a comedian than weather man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My memory isn't clear, but I don't think it did so great. That said, I'll invoke one of Tony's favorite sayings and say "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future trends". The Euro correctly indicated a 0.75+ area arcing into NJ, similar to the NAM prior to the event. I agree though that it means very little this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The Euro correctly indicated a 0.75+ area arcing into NJ, similar to the NAM prior to the event. I agree though that it means very little this go around. HM, any insights into today's event? Has the anticipated location of the best banding shifted at all from earlier thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM backed off a bit from its 6Z max. Keeping 6-10 for TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest hrrr gives most of us ccb love! Heck of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest hrrr gives most of us ccb love! Heck of a run. How much is that HRRR delivering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest hrrr gives most of us ccb love! Heck of a run. How much is that HRRR delivering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HURRRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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