mookiemike Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For once, no gnashing of teeth over boundary layers, the polar vortex, or living in the SE of Philly, where we might see flakes that my northern brothers don't see. One thing is clear, the difference of an inch or two is no difference maker if the winds can verify over three hours at 40MPH+. I'm sure coastal locations have a chance, but there is little difference in your in teens temperatures, heavy snow AND 30 MPH winds. I knew this storm would verify since early Sunday, that quiet reassurance that YES, this storm is coming our way. Good luck to the Mt. Holly guys keeping us up to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Since early Sunday, eh? You knew 10" since early Sunday? Quite the soothsayer considering not even the SREF plume maps didn't point to 10" until late Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Since early Sunday, eh? You knew 10" since early Sunday? Quite the soothsayer considering not even the SREF plume maps didn't point to 10" until late Sunday. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Since early Sunday, eh? You knew 10" since early Sunday? Quite the soothsayer considering not even the SREF plume maps didn't point to 10" until late Sunday.Mookiemike = Katodog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Since early Sunday, eh? You knew 10" since early Sunday? Quite the soothsayer considering not even the SREF plume maps didn't point to 10" until late Sunday.He did say he was a slow with the keyboard "hunt n Peck " style.... maybe he was typing since Sunday and just finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For once, no gnashing of teeth over boundary layers, the polar vortex, or living in the SE of Philly, where we might see flakes that my northern brothers don't see. One thing is clear, the difference of an inch or two is no difference maker if the winds can verify over three hours at 40MPH+. I'm sure coastal locations have a chance, but there is little difference in your in teens temperatures, heavy snow AND 30 MPH winds. I knew this storm would verify since early Sunday, that quiet reassurance that YES, this storm is coming our way. Good luck to the Mt. Holly guys keeping us up to date. well done...link us up to your thoughts Sunday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow, the 21z SREF mean is super amped. .5-1" QPF for the entire region except the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow, the 21z SREF mean is super amped. .5-1" QPF for the entire region except the Poconos. Even the Poconos get 0.25-0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wxsim with 18z data continues to creep up liquid - now up to 0.63" and it translates that to 8.0" of snow - temps do not get above freezing at any point in the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It'll be nice to have the snow around for a few days at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My oh my, those 21z SREF plumes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My oh my, those 21z SREF plumes! It has probably been asked a million times but what ratios do they account for and is it user or computer input? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM is a huge hit for the Philly metro area. 8-14" up to the Lehigh Valley...sharp cutoff just NW of Allentown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The trend north continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It has probably been asked a million times but what ratios do they account for and is it user or computer input? Sent from my iPad HD The SREF plumes have been averaging 20:1 ratios, which in my humble opinion is highly unrealistic. See Tony's post about snow ratios from the early January storm. Everyone leading up to that was like, "OMG, we could have 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios". Ratios were more like 12:1 or 13:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It has probably been asked a million times but what ratios do they account for and is it user or computer input? Sent from my iPad HD The SREF plumes have been averaging 20:1 ratios, which in my humble opinion is highly unrealistic. See Tony's post about snow ratios from the early January storm. Everyone leading up to that was like, "OMG, we could have 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios". Ratios were more like 12:1 or 13:1. Thanks for the reply, that makes a little more sense for the numbers it is spitting out. I have read his thread as well as his posts during that storm, good reading and extremely relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The SREF plumes have been averaging 20:1 ratios, which in my humble opinion is highly unrealistic. See Tony's post about snow ratios from the early January storm. Everyone leading up to that was like, "OMG, we could have 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios". Ratios were more like 12:1 or 13:1. agree with you for the most part, although i do think ratios will end up being slightly better than the post-new year's storm. we aren't seeing 20-1 for any prolonged period of time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 While discussing this system with a colleague, one point that came up was that as people continue to rely on the 'built in ratio' clown maps/snow maps/whatever you feel like calling them, you see an extra 2-3" popping up in places. Often that's because of .05-.08QPF that showed up over the course of hours with whatever ratios they've factored in. That's very, very, very LIGHT snow. Especially over time. We all know that little touch of snow may/may not materialize. Count the bulk of the precip and factor in your theoretical ratios. I'm not saying ratios won't be good, heck even great - Just bear in mind that this may result in a sharper cutoff than we realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 agree with you for the most part, although i do think ratios will end up being slightly better than the post-new year's storm. we aren't seeing 20-1 for any prolonged period of time, though. Yeah I think so too, but 20:1 is pretty far fetched for this area. Not that it's never happened, just that it really requires the most perfect set-up. Realistically, 15:1 is what you should count on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mt. Holly's latest snowmap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mt. Holly's latest snowmap.. That is from the last event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That is from the last event?Sent from my iPad HDThis is from and for tomorrows event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That is from the last event?Sent from my iPad HD This is from and for tomorrows event. Weird, it says ending Friday 1 pm jan 03 on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Weird, it says ending Friday 1 pm jan 03 on my end.Clear your cache and cookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 00z RGEM, 16mm jackpot near Philly for 7am-7pm tomorrow, with a bit more after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That is from the last event? Exactly my thoughts, I had to double-check myself, but that is in fact their current forecast. Serious dejavu going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That is from the last event? Indeed. We got 9" from that. They said 4-6". Don't expect any different this time Exactly my thoughts, I had to double-check myself, but that is in fact their current forecast. Serious dejavu going on mhm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For those of you not good at metric, 16 mm = 0.63"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Kinda hoping philly airport gets pounded. Would be nice to see them come in around 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Kinda hoping philly airport gets pounded. Would be nice to see them come in around 10 inches. What's the current seasonal total at the airport? I vaguely remember it being around 21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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