Rib Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wasn't the Euro a hold out with the last arctic boundary storm? Maybe the GFS could pull one over the Euro this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM looks real nice again, would like the Euro to come along soon Roughly 0.8" qpf at phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wasn't the Euro a hold out with the last arctic boundary storm? Maybe the GFS could pull one over the Euro this time. Yes, the 12z Euro on Wednesday the 1st (the day before the snow) moved much closer to the other models and actually wound up being fairly accurate with that run. You could say that process at least began last night with the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs is a solid hit! Much like the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like a good snowfall of 6"-10" is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM 12z Bufkit analysis - ratios 15:1 are likely wouldn't go much higher, maybe slightly higher at the peak of the storm but likely to fall back below 15:1 at the tail end. - Good Omega forcing through throughout the event and a good set-up for a snow growth zone. Likely to see some moderate snowfall rates right in time for the evening rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 12z UKMET has a stronger low than the 0z run. I think the EURO will follow the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If anyone is interested here euro qpf increased but still less than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Dr No caves has close to .4" to .46" in SEPA Should be better ratios this go around so a 5-7" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 TWC has this as not a significant storm with a general 3-5 area and basically nothing for NEPA. Guess they are going with the drier model. Very light snow in the poconos currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Would not but into the ECM, been catching up all winter lol. RGEM/NAM/GFS/GGEM blend to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF is a good deal wetter than 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 CRAS model at 12Z is showing an absolute bomb (980mb) off ACY at 42hrs. But it is the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Plumes for the 15z SREF, liquid amounts show a mean of .62 for Philly. Decent agreement rather than a couple huge solutions skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ258 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTFOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY BITTERLY COLD AIR....A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TOOUR ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORMSTRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST LATER TUESDAY, THE WINDS WILL INCREASERESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS THE STORMCONTINUES TO EXIT, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY SETTLE INTUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-211000-/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.140121T1200Z-140122T0600Z//O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.140121T1500Z-140122T1100Z/NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN258 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM ESTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOWARD LATE TUESDAYMORNING AND THE MIDDAY HOURS, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OFTUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PERHOUR.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADSAND PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAYNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCEDVISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSHHOUR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TUESDAYAFTERNOON, BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 20S TUESDAY, THEN FALLING THROUGHTHE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT.* WIND CHILLS...MAINLY AROUND 10 DEGREES TUESDAY, THEN DROPPINGTO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE VALUES CAN QUICKLYCAUSE FROSTBITE TO EXPOSED SKIN AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL GREATLY REDUCE THEVISIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANDTUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW BLOWING BACK ONTOPREVIOUSLY PLOWED ROADWAYS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Aaaand boom goes the dynamite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those totals match my thinking at this point, a real solid DC to NYC SECS, and the starving weenies down there really need this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 new map keeps getting better. hope it doesn't go the other way. Those totals match my thinking at this point, a real solid DC to NYC SECS, and the starving weenies down there really need this oneAgreed. A general 8 inch snowfall with lollipops of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hmm they're only going with a WWA here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z RGEM a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hmm they're only going with a WWA here because we are not forecast over 6 inches, 6+ for a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Eyeballing RGEM it looks like another solid 15 to 20 mm LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gleen's 4pm call. Mainly 6-10" for the city and surrounding areas....3-6" in the far N/W suburbs and 10+" along the shore and slightly inland. Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM 18z meteograms have 19mm LE for Philly, easily 6-10" with 15/1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Latest GFS has 8-12" for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z RGEM is slightly south and east...nothing major though. Still good for N&W areas and a little better than the NAM for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Latest GFS has 8-12" for everybody. Does that include your neighbor in the Skook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does that include your neighbor in the Skook?Yes. The area of significant snow is massive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The NAM is usually the wetter model but it looks drier compared to the GFS. Guessing a blend of the two would be an idea to run with. 18Z GFS looks really juicy for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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