Birdbean Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This from state college NWS URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 435 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY... .A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER AND INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066-201945- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.140121T0900Z-140122T0300Z/ SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS- YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE... GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 435 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...TEENS AND LOWER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && $$ DANGELO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The CRAS is a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hope Mt Holly fixes the graphic on their FB status...seems like its an old screenshot, cause right now there are bright yellow letters stating "no significant snowfall expected ths next 48 hours"....im no communications major, but I know if I share this status nearly everyone who sees that old graphic will scroll past thinking no snow is coming regardless of the text and the link....this happened earlier in the month, where the graphic in the FB update did not match what was on the Mt Holly site and at least one of my friends jn turn shared it saying "see no big deal" based on the erroneously outdated graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hope Mt Holly fixes the graphic on their FB status...seems like its an old screenshot, cause right now there are bright yellow letters stating "no significant snowfall expected ths next 48 hours"....im no communications major, but I know if I share this status nearly everyone who sees that old graphic will scroll past thinking no snow is coming regardless of the text and the link....this happened earlier in the month, where the graphic in the FB update did not match what was on the Mt Holly site and at least one of my friends jn turn shared it saying "see no big deal" based on the erroneously outdated graphic Pretty sure they'd have to completely re-post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Pretty sure they'd have to completely re-post it. its fixed/reposted....who says the gubmint is slow to fix mistakes :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ336 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY TUESDAY INTOTUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-202100-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.140121T1200Z-140122T0600Z/NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN336 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S THEN DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&& interesting that the forecast accum here is 4-6 but the zones around philly and se are 2-4 or 3-5 with add'l moderate in the evening. that would imply at least 4-8 if not 6-10. looks like a great storm with decently heavy snow and some good winds. You guys should have some great walks on Tues eve! Makes me miss cc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hope Mt Holly fixes the graphic on their FB status...seems like its an old screenshot, cause right now there are bright yellow letters stating "no significant snowfall expected ths next 48 hours"....im no communications major, but I know if I share this status nearly everyone who sees that old graphic will scroll past thinking no snow is coming regardless of the text and the link....this happened earlier in the month, where the graphic in the FB update did not match what was on the Mt Holly site and at least one of my friends jn turn shared it saying "see no big deal" based on the erroneously outdated graphic Whenever we post that graphic it is the default graphic that shows no accumulation. Please click on the link to see the office forecast and correct image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 06 nam+gfs indicate phl has a half-decent shot at a third 6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This from state college NWS URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 435 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY... .A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER AND INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066-201945- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.140121T0900Z-140122T0300Z/ SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS- YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE... GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 435 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...TEENS AND LOWER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && $$ DANGELO Okay then I guess Channel 6 will be adjusting their totals LOL they have 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Okay then I guess Channel 6 will be adjusting their totals LOL they have 1-3" They are just trying to help you realize your winter snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Blending yesterdays NAM models would put us somewhere in the 4-8" range. It's worked well this season in sniffing out the storms and that method has put a pretty hard number on it. The trend of a major snow storm by some models coming from nothing the previous day is about as big a flip as we have had in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 HPC snowfall probs and link for discussion.- 4-8" with a 10% chance of more http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Whenever we post that graphic it is the default graphic that shows no accumulation. Please click on the link to see the office forecast and correct image. is there a way to change that? I understand this as a weather hobbyist...no problem for me....the problem is if I choose to share it with others on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 is there a way to change that? I understand this as a weather hobbyist...no problem for me....the problem is if I choose to share it with others on FB FB caches the graphics so the previews aren't live or current. Saves their bandwidth but is a bad feature. News headlines are often out of date when links are posted to stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesis Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have a flight from FLL to PHL. 4pm dept and 7pm arrival. How do you see a flight like that playing out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 new map keeps getting better. hope it doesn't go the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have a flight from FLL to PHL. 4pm dept and 7pm arrival. How do you see a flight like that playing out? Bumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wxsim for NW Chesco has snow arriving by 930am tomorrow becoming moderate at times during the PM with temps falling from the mid-20's at the start to the upper teens by late evening. The snow should taper off by 11pm with 5.4" of snow forecasted out of 0.44" of liquid. Temps on Wednesday holding below 14 degrees during the day with a low of 4 by Thursday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 nesis, on 20 Jan 2014 - 08:37 AM, said: I have a flight from FLL to PHL. 4pm dept and 7pm arrival. How do you see a flight like that playing out? Bumpy. Especially if you're talking tomorrow, Tuesday. Today not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z NAM looks great. 3-6" region-wide and still snowing heavily at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nam is a philly crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Have to wonder how high ratios will be with this storm...temps are well below freezing at all levels, even down to the coast. 15-20:1 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Have to wonder how high ratios will be with this storm...temps are well below freezing at all levels, even down to the coast. 15-20:1 maybe?wind the wind I doubt we go that high...dendrites have a tough time in the wind. Prolly more like 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like the snow magnet is working for the NW zones of Mt Holly zones. NAM is a solid 4 to 6 in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like the snow magnet is working for the NW zones of Mt Holly zones. NAM is a solid 4 to 6 in my backyard. My guess is Mt Holly is waiting on the 12z runs to issue anything for the nw areas. New Nam clown maps have mby at around 9" lol. If gfs follows with a nw tick I fully expect a wsw. Even as their map currently portrays the amount I'm in the 4-6 with no watch or advisory. For Berks that is. Sent from my HTC ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have a flight from FLL to PHL. 4pm dept and 7pm arrival. How do you see a flight like that playing out? Not good. 12z NAM peaks storm in Philly between 4 and 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is all ray's doing by purchasing a flight home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow, what are the odds we get two of these well below freezing snow events in the same winter? This is snow usually reserved for Canada. Look at the NAM during the peak of the storm. That could be near blizzard conditions with blowing snow, temperatures in the upper teens, and very low visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM looks real nice again, would like the Euro to come along soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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