Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Early look at the NAM, but it is not quite as energetic with the vortmax crossing the international border at 15 hours. It is farther west though, more room to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Plumes are out. Means: EWR - 10" PHL - 12.5" BLM - 12" LGA/JFK - 10-10.5" ISP-13.5" BDR - 11" Can you include KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It is farther west though, more room to dig. It looks exactly the same to me...and the height field being compressed over New England will create more issues down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It looks exactly the same to me...and the height field being compressed over New England will create more issues down the road.Looks like your correct, doesn't seem as amped like 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You could argue the wave spacing is a bit better than 18z but other than that it seems like it is a little less amplified with the incoming vorticity, no major changes that are screaming to me that it will be more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Back end of the incoming vortmax is a little more energetic so we will see what kind of impacts that has down the road. The lead vort may just be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Vort looks stronger to me at hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can you include KMMU? Does not exist for KMMU. Not an option. Closest is Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Comparing hour 39 at 18z to 33 at 00z, the vort is more consolidated this run near St. Louis and looks stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does not exist for KMMU. Not an option. Closest is Newark. Hmmm. Ok. Trying to get a feel for north central jersey. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The issue is not whether or not the vortmax is stronger, it's just digging less which is a problem for amplification down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The back end of this thing is a lot more energetic, though...that could have some implications as the storm starts to form near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is looking stronger and more amped up at hour 36 as compared to the same panel at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hmmm. Ok. Trying to get a feel for north central jersey. Thanks That was pure fantasy anyway. No other model is close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That was pure fantasy anyway. No other model is close to a foot. What? You mean to say that one SREF member giving me 40" is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That was pure fantasy anyway. No other model is close to a foot.[/quote Probably is, but I would like to what the spread is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is going to end up a tick SE of 18z it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Big swing and a miss offshore. Earthlight was dead on once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is going to end up a tick SE of 18z it looks like. It'll be lucky to show .1" up your guys way. DRIER, by a good bit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is going to end up a tick SE of 18z it looks like.Absolutely. Trend the other way? Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Precip barely makes it to NYC. NNJ is pretty much bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Pretty much every ARW member of the SREF has a huge bomb. Starting to show up on the NMM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lol....Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Why did the low escape more east? The vort looked deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Bad sign with the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not very difficult to see the difference in handling of the vorticity aloft. The amped up members have the trough digging through the MS Valley and then amplifying off the coast while the NAM is more flat. You can just look at the solutions aloft on the ARW members in order to see exactly what needs to happen for the big solutions to verify. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_21z/f54.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Since the 0z NAM (not saying it is right or wrong) went back south and east then isn't it more then likely the 03z SREF will do the same thing since I believe it usually follows the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Bad sign with the nam? The NAM is always bad and unpredictable. At least it's consistently bad. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Since the 0z NAM (not saying it is right or wrong) went back south and east then isn't it more then likely the 03z SREF will do the same thing since I believe it usually follows the NAM? Good thing we'll be asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That looks nearly identical to what the Euro was doing with this storm a week ago, LOL. Now if we could just get it to do it again. Lol....Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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