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1/21 clipper/coastal


Zelocita Weather

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.50 may not b a KU , but with temps down towards 10 and this system deepening so fast , winds w

Could b an issue accross Long Island and into southern New England , so in those places

You could b evolving towards a B solution

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They are very nice, but often is the case, ratios are over rated. We rarely exceed 13/1 in these parts and when we do they are from clippers not coastals.

 

A met. on the Philly forum made a post about ratios. Basically from what I can remember its not just the temps, it is the lift. You're going to get better ratios with cold temps & good UVVs. So if we can get into that we'd be good. 

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The ARW from 21z is only out on the West Coast domain but you can already see the shortwave on the eastern periphery of the west coast ridge is more energetic and amplified, swinging all the way back into Montana. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMWEST_0z/f33.gif

 

Can you post the East Coast domain when it comes out? 

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A met. on the Philly forum made a post about ratios. Basically from what I can remember its not just the temps, it is the lift. You're going to get better ratios with cold temps & good UVVs. So if we can get into that we'd be good. 

 

You want 700mb temps below -5 to -8C but also want low winds at the surface and the correct omega coinciding with snow growth, the event a few weeks ago where we thought we'd be 15-20 to 1 we were closer to 12 to 1 largely because the winds were quite strong

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Earthlight and all, any analogs that we can look at that mirror this? A clipper modeled offshore that ticked back NW like this late in the game? I recall one around 2005 that was on a weekend that surprisingly over performed.

The rain/snow we had this weekend had a decent tick west in the last 48 hours

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Lets not get our expectations or hopes up too high just yet. As I mentioned earlier the SREFs are still out of their best range and don't have any new ingested data from the evening. So I think it would be smart to wait for the newer runs or the NAM and GFS before we assume a NW trend will continue. 

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Earthlight and all, any analogs that we can look at that mirror this? A clipper modeled offshore that ticked back NW like this late in the game? I recall one around 2005 that was on a weekend that surprisingly over performed.

 

This is more of a hybrid now that forecast guidance is digging the vortmax so far south. Much more amplification now. But no analogs come to mind directly. 

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This is more of a hybrid now that forecast guidance is digging the vortmax so far south. Much more amplification now. But no analogs come to mind directly.

In my head, most similar events always blow up for Long Island and Cape Cod and are excruciatingly close to NYC and West... I'm only leaning with that solution because of mental history but this seems a different animal...
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