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1/21 clipper/coastal


Zelocita Weather

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I suppose you could ride the euro, it's performance has been sub par at best however.

Not sure this is a model hiccup, because all models have trended wetter.

I think the question is, do we waffle back east some or do we continue the west trend.

00z tonight will be big. Has a very similar feel to the storm early this month though

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I have the Euro ensemble mean text output data and it shows exactly .10 at Central Park, Laguardia, and JFK, Islip is .14 and Belmar, NJ is .14  I can provide others, but I agree, this is currently the low end of my expectations, much as the Euro did with the near-blizzard back the beginning of the month.

Firstly. I know the euro is an outlier. Second the ens do not show .1 for Central Park. Regardless. I'm riding the gfs which I think continues to trend wetter.

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More often than not, guidance will bump NW and then correct back east/southeast a bit. With that in mind, it would really be beneficial to all of us to see the edge of the precipitation shield continue to bump NW at 00z tonight. 

This is true. Usually in a system like this with so much cold air, id love for it to show even the far NW burbs getting hit hard

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I have the Euro ensemble mean text output data and it shows exactly .10 at Central Park, Laguardia, and JFK, Islip is .14 and Belmar, NJ is .14 I can provide others, but I agree, this is currently the low end of my expectations, much as the Euro did with the near-blizzard back the beginning of the month.

My apologies. You were correct.
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The incoming SREF are pretty important. The ARW and to a certain extent the NMM members have remained very amped up so far. If we start to lose them, regardless of the fact that there not new 00z data ingested, I would be a little concerned that the NW trend won't continue.

 

You are 10000% right, I'm no meteorologist, but I've followed weather models since I was 15, I'm 27 now. There are sometimes suites at this range where things trend NW. The very next model run is extremely important in those cases, because it either confirms the substantial runs have legs, or confirms that it was just a burp. We're in the 48 hr range now, so this might be the last run where we see semi-big shift either way.

 

I am excited for coastal NJ folk, they will get the best VVs/rates, I think if the 18z models were remotely close someone would break the 8" mark there. 

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You are 10000% right, I'm no meteorologist, but I've followed weather models since I was 15, I'm 27 now. There are sometimes suites where things trend NW. The very next model run is extremely important in those cases, because it either confirms the substantial runs have legs, or confirms that it was just a burp. We're in the 48 hr range now, so this might be the last run where we see semi-big shift either way.

 

I am excited for coastal NJ folk, they will get the best VVs/rates, I think if the 18z models were remotely close someone would break the 8" mark there. 

 

Well the problem with events like this is that people see the amped up solutions and start to get their hopes up for that. And that is when it becomes more modelology instead of meteorology. Meteorology tells us that the pattern is still fast, progressive even, and not totally supportive of the wrapped up solutions that we're seeing on some of the ARW members of the SREF. 

 

The one thing that is keeping me from expecting a big dip to the south and east is the fact that the OP NAM, GFS and RGEM all had significant jumps in the handling of the vortmax at 500mb on their 18z runs. The change significantly alters how the entire height field and mid level dynamics will respond, and it opens up the potential for banding to get near and along the coast. 

 

So it will be interesting to see what happens. If I were a betting man, I would say the SREF would tick SE a bit. We're bound to lose some of those really wrapped up ARW members...that solution is simply unlikely at this time. 

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Only in the NYC forum do we scream about a potential KU off a 66 hour SREF forecast for 0.50" of liquid. 

 

Haha, in a few years psychologists will have a new disorder to learn in college. 

 

The 500mb SREF mean looks awesome. Usually NAM follows suite, so we might get a weenie run at 00z. 

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