earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 More often than not, guidance will bump NW and then correct back east/southeast a bit. With that in mind, it would really be beneficial to all of us to see the edge of the precipitation shield continue to bump NW at 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I suppose you could ride the euro, it's performance has been sub par at best however. Not sure this is a model hiccup, because all models have trended wetter. I think the question is, do we waffle back east some or do we continue the west trend. 00z tonight will be big. Has a very similar feel to the storm early this month though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have the Euro ensemble mean text output data and it shows exactly .10 at Central Park, Laguardia, and JFK, Islip is .14 and Belmar, NJ is .14 I can provide others, but I agree, this is currently the low end of my expectations, much as the Euro did with the near-blizzard back the beginning of the month. Firstly. I know the euro is an outlier. Second the ens do not show .1 for Central Park. Regardless. I'm riding the gfs which I think continues to trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rpm 21z 6-8 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have the Euro ensemble mean text output data and it shows exactly .10 at Central Park, Laguardia, and JFK. Islip is .14Just ignore him. Hopefully the trend continues tonight and the overall moral will lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rpm 21z 6-8 for NYC 0.6-0.8" QPF from NE NJ through NYC in a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can you provide a link for this model? 0.6-0.8" QPF from NE NJ through NYC in a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rpm 21z 6-8 for NYC Where do you get the RPM?, is it only available through a pay site?. What does it show for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 More often than not, guidance will bump NW and then correct back east/southeast a bit. With that in mind, it would really be beneficial to all of us to see the edge of the precipitation shield continue to bump NW at 00z tonight. This is true. Usually in a system like this with so much cold air, id love for it to show even the far NW burbs getting hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Where do you get the RPM?, is it only available through a pay site?. What does it show for Baltimore. 4-6 for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 4-6 for that area Thanks. Can you only get it from a pay site?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Where do you get the RPM?, is it only available through a pay site?. What does it show for Baltimore. 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 4-6" Thank you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0.6-0.8" QPF from NE NJ through NYC in a deformation band. Am I wrong or isn tthe RPM best functionally within 24 hrs of the storm ( his res model ) right? 0.6-0.8" QPF from NE NJ through NYC in a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can someone post a link to the RPM? If not, can you tell all of us how much it is showing for the rest of Northern New Jersey. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have the Euro ensemble mean text output data and it shows exactly .10 at Central Park, Laguardia, and JFK, Islip is .14 and Belmar, NJ is .14 I can provide others, but I agree, this is currently the low end of my expectations, much as the Euro did with the near-blizzard back the beginning of the month.My apologies. You were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The incoming SREF are pretty important. The ARW and to a certain extent the NMM members have remained very amped up so far. If we start to lose them, regardless of the fact that there not new 00z data ingested, I would be a little concerned that the NW trend won't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The incoming SREF are pretty important. The ARW and to a certain extent the NMM members have remained very amped up so far. If we start to lose them, regardless of the fact that there not new 00z data ingested, I would be a little concerned that the NW trend won't continue. You are 10000% right, I'm no meteorologist, but I've followed weather models since I was 15, I'm 27 now. There are sometimes suites at this range where things trend NW. The very next model run is extremely important in those cases, because it either confirms the substantial runs have legs, or confirms that it was just a burp. We're in the 48 hr range now, so this might be the last run where we see semi-big shift either way. I am excited for coastal NJ folk, they will get the best VVs/rates, I think if the 18z models were remotely close someone would break the 8" mark there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You are 10000% right, I'm no meteorologist, but I've followed weather models since I was 15, I'm 27 now. There are sometimes suites where things trend NW. The very next model run is extremely important in those cases, because it either confirms the substantial runs have legs, or confirms that it was just a burp. We're in the 48 hr range now, so this might be the last run where we see semi-big shift either way. I am excited for coastal NJ folk, they will get the best VVs/rates, I think if the 18z models were remotely close someone would break the 8" mark there. Well the problem with events like this is that people see the amped up solutions and start to get their hopes up for that. And that is when it becomes more modelology instead of meteorology. Meteorology tells us that the pattern is still fast, progressive even, and not totally supportive of the wrapped up solutions that we're seeing on some of the ARW members of the SREF. The one thing that is keeping me from expecting a big dip to the south and east is the fact that the OP NAM, GFS and RGEM all had significant jumps in the handling of the vortmax at 500mb on their 18z runs. The change significantly alters how the entire height field and mid level dynamics will respond, and it opens up the potential for banding to get near and along the coast. So it will be interesting to see what happens. If I were a betting man, I would say the SREF would tick SE a bit. We're bound to lose some of those really wrapped up ARW members...that solution is simply unlikely at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Am I wrong or isn tthe RPM best functionally within 24 hrs of the storm ( his res model ) right? Yes, in the NYC sub forum it's the best if it shows the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'll eat my words...the 21z SREFs are waaaay north and west. 0.50" near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'll eat my words...the 21z SREFs are waaaay north and west. 0.50" near NYC. Forgive my weenie moment, but I just jumped up and down and screamed with excitement, KU!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Am I seeing a 988mb just outside the BM on the sref??? Edit - sref mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 !! Off to a good start because SREFS are awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Only in the NYC forum do we scream about a potential KU off a 66 hour SREF forecast for 0.50" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There are probably some extremely amped up members in there, but the mean is significantly NW from 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 MSLP maps show several members still leaning left of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Only in the NYC forum do we scream about a potential KU off a 66 hour SREF forecast for 0.50" of liquid. Haha, in a few years psychologists will have a new disorder to learn in college. The 500mb SREF mean looks awesome. Usually NAM follows suite, so we might get a weenie run at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That was the most weenie moment I have ever had since the Euro first started showing the 1/3 storm, my bad. Anyway, this was a very good sign, lets see the NAM, GFS before we get hyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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