NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 A bit of perspective, 18z GFS from yesterday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011818/gfs_apcpn_us_35.png close to 75 miles further north west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I had 7:1 ratios during the Jan 3rd event despite bitter cold temps. I'm no ratio expert, but I would bet there is more to it than just the temps aloft. 15 to 1 here in CN in jan. , 700 MB minus 12 to minus 18 on the chart looks to b the best growth You can see how the bet lifting is right on the coast to this point That's how places around SNJ got 11 back in dec on that Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 close to 75 miles further north west More than that with the more substantial precipitation amounts (.25-.50-etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Given the radical changes aloft, I expect this to keep trending tonight. Could things fall apart and trend the other way, perhaps but just going off of past history the models don't just stop changing when a different scenario (changes aloft) has now come on the table. Its not totally unusual to get a waffle one direction by alot of guidance for 2-3 runs then they move back the other way, if we see this continuing more amplified through tomrorow AM I'll feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not all on this image (some develop earlier/later) but you can see a pretty good amount of SREF members showing expansive banding in NJ/NYC. And a couple really tucked in. Okay, I will pay attention for a couple more runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just to give you an idea how far NW of the operational run the Euro ensemble mean is. At Belmar the euro operational printed out .04 and the euro ensemble mean just printed out about .15 and it is nearly double the operational run everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12:1 ratios in most areas of Northern New Jersey with that storm. I had 7:1 ratios during the Jan 3rd event despite bitter cold temps. I'm no ratio expert, but I would bet there is more to it than just the temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 QPF for those keeping track: Bridgeport: 0.19" Islip: 0.28" Montauk Point: 0.40" Nantucket: 0.63" New York City: 0.18" Newark: 0.18" White Plains: 0.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Its not totally unusual to get a waffle one direction by alot of guidance for 2-3 runs then they move back the other way, if we see this continuing more amplified through tomrorow AM I'll feel good. Well what I was saying earlier is that the generally progressive nature of the pattern still makes me a little unsure of the NW trend. These are pretty dramatic improvements aloft and the shortwave is now in Western Canada, though, so I think it needs to be watched very carefully. The one thing that is interesting to me is how not only has the amplification changed, but the actual evolution of the shortwave has changed as well. It's way less compressed and the northward trend in heights over Eastern Canada gives the precipitation shield and associated lift a little more room to expand northwest. A really intricate setup aloft with lots of moving pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Its not totally unusual to get a waffle one direction by alot of guidance for 2-3 runs then they move back the other way, if we see this continuing more amplified through tomrorow AM I'll feel good. even when a few of the different models are more amped at the same time for a few runs and the sampling has become more reliable downstream as the system is getting closer and closer ??? we are only 2 days or less away from the beginning of the event - if the 0Z models stick with this output chances increase dramatically IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What is actually surprising is we suddenly have an almost textbook confluence low (50/50) and a transitional block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What is actually surprising is we suddenly have an almost textbook confluence low (50/50) and a transitional block. Pseudo 50/50 is actually a result of the PV being farther east that we would want it. Wouldn't that be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What is actually surprising is we suddenly have an almost textbook confluence low (50/50) and a transitional block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If we can squeeze out 4 inches of snow Wednesday morning is probably in the low Single digits This time you keep you re snow cover for at least 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Mount holly ITS ALWAYS DIFFICULT WITH NORTHWEST DRIFTING AS TO HOW FOR DO WE GO. ON THE ONE HAND WE WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF COLD, DRY AIR FEEDING INTO IT. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT IS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVES HAVE DONE RATHER WELL THIS WINTER. THE OP ECMWF WHICH AT ONE TIME WAS THE MOST DYNAMIC WITH THIS SYSTEM, IS NOW THE MUST MUTED. BUT WE HAVE SEEN INSTANCES THIS PAST TWO WINTERS (1/3 COMES TO MIND) WHERE ITS BEEN TOO FLAT UNTIL WE GET WITHIN 48HRS. SO WITH THIS PACKAGE WE ARE GOING WITH A UKMET/12Z WRF-NMMB BLEND INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE SHORT WAVE HAS MADE IT INTO THE DENSER SOUNDING NETWORK, AM NOT SURE IF THIS IS IT FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE DIGGING TROF. HISTORY LEANS AGAINST SAYING WE ARE DONE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE LATITUDINAL ADJUSTMENTS BY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MADDENING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO A MODELING CONSENSUS UNTIL SOLUTIONS SETTLE. ONLY CHANGE WITH GREATER EMPHASIS ON TUESDAY, WE ARE REDUCING OUR EMPHASIS ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE SNOW, IF JANUARY 7TH DID NOT OCCUR, WE`D BE TALKING ABOUT THE COLDEST BLAST IN A WHILE. WHAT LITTLE SMALL COMFORT IT IS, THE COMING BLASTS LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE 1/4 AND 1/7 COMBO. TUE PLEASE DO NOT GET ATTACHED TO ANY ACCUMULATION NUMBER AS TOO MUCH OF A SPREAD EXISTS IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DIAGNOSING THE GFS FORCING MECHANISMS SUPPORT THE 12Z WRF- NMMB`S PCPN FIELD MORE SO THAN ITSELF. THE CONCENTRATION OF 850MB THETA E CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION, ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 285K AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS CONCENTRATED IN OUR THREE SERN NJ COUNTIES AND THE LOWER HALF OF DELMARVA. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET LOOKS BETTER IN THE MORNING, BUT DRIFTS OFFSHORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE ISENTROPIC VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES SUGGEST .1 TO .25 WATER EQUIVALENT. NOT THAT WE FEEL CONFIDENT, BUT GIVEN WE HAVE SEEN OUTCOMES LIKE THIS BEFORE, WE HAVE UPPED POPS GOING LIKELY INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE NOW BRINGS A MEASURABLE SNOW AROUND I95 CORRIDOR AND A PLOWABLE SNOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM, BUT THE EVENING ONE MAY VERY WELL BE. DETAILS ARE NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ELSEWHERE, THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH AND WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE OF MEASURABLE POPS THRUT OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLY AND FALL AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Gfs ens further west at hr 48. Supports 3-5 for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 RGEM Nudging closer to dangerous territory now. That band is sitting just barely offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Advisory level for I-95 on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 .25+ back to ewr on gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GEFS with a noticeable move NW from 12z and the trend has been marked since 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just started reading this thread, when does this start for NYC/ Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS looks nice into the beginning of February with chances for a big storm or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean was in play. It is well NW of the operational run with the snow shield. Shows literally no precip in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Shows literally no precip in NYC. When the GFS, GEFS, NAM, SREF, RGEM show a 1-3/2-4 event, the Euro is an outlier, look at its track record this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Shows literally no precip in NYC. The Euro ensemble mean has .10 at Central Park. That is hardly nothing with high ratio potential and the continued trends to the NW and it is nearly double what the operational run was showing. It also did this with the near blizzard back the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Here is hr54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Take away top top and bottom members off the SREF plumes and they show 5.73" EWR, 6.19" LGA, 6.13" BLM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean has .10 at Central Park. That is hardly nothing with high ratio potential and the continued trends to the NW and it is nearly double what the operational run was showing. It also did this with the near blizzard back the beginning of the month.Firstly. I know the euro is an outlier. Second the ens do not show .1 for Central Park. Regardless. I'm riding the gfs which I think continues to trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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