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1/21 clipper/coastal


Zelocita Weather

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Easy to see the changes towards the more amplified solutions on the RGEM. Despite the progressive and fast flow this is a very energetic shortwave and the ridging out ahead of it is becoming interesting. The PV, additionally, is east of the position you'd want it to be in but it is almost acting as a pseudo block to slow down the flow enough upstream and allow the shortwave to amplify up the coast. 

 

post-6-0-86803900-1390166752_thumb.png

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Just take a look at the changes aloft, all you really need to see. Precipitation shield adjusted NW as well and more spacing/less compressed flow with room for CCB development. 

That remark about CCB development implies by this evening's run we may looking at another uptick in QPF ? And continuation of a NW trend on most models?

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Just take a look at the changes aloft, all you really need to see. Precipitation shield adjusted NW as well and more spacing/less compressed flow with room for CCB development. 

Yea good point Earth. Reminds me of the last storm where the GFS made the upper air changes but the surface took a few run to reflect it. Lets see if it holds at 0z

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according to the GFS and with 20:1 ratios the GFS snowfall should dump 3 - 5 inches in the immediate Metro 3 - the northwest part of immediate metro and 5 southeast part question now is when Upton is going to take the bait since this solution should hold at least this strong up until the event

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011918/gfs_apcpn_us_19.png

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You need good UVVs, which is why NJ is in prime condition. 

I think NJ is sitting pretty good right now all things considered. Besides the trend being our friend at the moment, most storms that produce for us tend to "pop out of nowhere" if you will. That's why i never understood the point of tracking storms over 100 hours out, or being excited about models showing a storm hitting us at hour 120.

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