EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If the gfs continues trending.........I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Do you think we have reach a consensus of a brush? Or a advisory type storm could be possible for all? It is hard to say given the radical changes we are still seeing in the mid and upper levels of every model. The overall synoptic setup generally argues against a big/closer to the coast solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 And don't forget with 850's at -12 to -15 we should have high ratios as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 850`s start at Minus 12 , end up close to Minus 20 as the precip is closing out , Surface temps are falling thru the teens . At 500 MB at 12z it still had a POS tilted trough going through at 18z the trough tries to go NEG much faster . Think there could be some good snow growth , would just like to see 700 MB temps between Minus 12 to Minus 18 ( thinks that's the better area to be in ) . The NAM at 10 to 1 looks to be a 4 inch system from the City south and east , its printing out greater than 6 in AC Think its 12 to 1 or 15 to 1 , close to what we averaged back in Jan with a similar profile The NAM is not alone the GFS has come N, Im not putting the SREF in outside 36 hours . Would always love to have the company of the Euro with these , but it may just have to play catch up , if the American models are right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It is hard to say given the radical changes we are still seeing in the mid and upper levels of every model. The overall synoptic setup generally argues against a big/closer to the coast solution.Agreed. These clipper systems never seem to blow up enough for the far N and W. But we win enough up here. Good for the coastal plain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Any time you get the Polar Vortex into play, amazing things are possible. The models hinted at this long ago. Could it be that they are just coming back to what they saw previously? Time will tell. Interesting stuff. It is hard to say given the radical changes we are still seeing in the mid and upper levels of every model. The overall synoptic setup generally argues against a big/closer to the coast solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It is hard to say given the radical changes we are still seeing in the mid and upper levels of every model. The overall synoptic setup generally argues against a big/closer to the coast solution.Refreshing to see some real meteo and non model hugging. As a big trend guy I will say this comes closer to the coast as has been this winter so far. Without blocking suppression session has been kept down. I think this comes in closer for a last minute surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Several days ago I made a lengthy post about how the elongated polar vortex and the retrogression of the trough axis would eventually lead to threats here. I don't think this is the "big one" but the point is that even though it may seem mundane at times, these things pop up and create threats very often. The forecast guidance is going to have trouble differentiating between individual perturbations within the upper level flow as well, within a very active pattern. No shortage of chances and no shortage of cold air over the next few weeks. Don't know where the complaints were coming from these past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 850`s start at Minus 12 , end up close to Minus 20 as the precip is closing out , Surface temps are falling thru the teens . At 500 MB at 12z it still had a POS tilted trough going through at 18z the trough tries to go NEG much faster . Think there could be some good snow growth , would just like to see 700 MB temps between Minus 12 to Minus 18 ( thinks that's the better area to be in ) . The NAM at 10 to 1 looks to be a 4 inch system from the City south and east , its printing out greater than 6 in AC Think its 12 to 1 or 15 to 1 , close to what we averaged back in Jan with a similar profile The NAM is not alone the GFS has come N, Im not putting the SREF in outside 36 hours . Would always love to have the company of the Euro with these , but it may just have to play catch up , if the American models are right . The Euro ensemble mean was in play. It is well NW of the operational run with the snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 850`s start at Minus 12 , end up close to Minus 20 as the precip is closing out , Surface temps are falling thru the teens . At 500 MB at 12z it still had a POS tilted trough going through at 18z the trough tries to go NEG much faster . Think there could be some good snow growth , would just like to see 700 MB temps between Minus 12 to Minus 18 ( thinks that's the better area to be in ) . The NAM at 10 to 1 looks to be a 4 inch system from the City south and east , its printing out greater than 6 in AC Think its 12 to 1 or 15 to 1 , close to what we averaged back in Jan with a similar profile The NAM is not alone the GFS has come N, Im not putting the SREF in outside 36 hours . Would always love to have the company of the Euro with these , but it may just have to play catch up , if the American models are right . I believe we are colder at upper levels this time by a bit anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 There are 10 SREF members which could be considered "big" hits..i.e producing a warning criteria event for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 FWIW the ratios out this way were about 15:1 yesterday. I had .07 and got an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean was in play. It is well NW of the operational run with the snow shield. I see the mean SLP but not the QPF , looked meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The trend is our friend! Wasn't thinking much of this system but it looks like we might get some good stuff. I'll wait till 0z before I go all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18z 4km NAM has the 0.10 contour further NW and 0.25 into the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah, the SLP would not show you much. The NW QPF shift is substantial however when compared side by side with the prior run. I see the mean SLP but not the QPF , looked meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18z 4km NAM snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 What made people stand up and take notice was what happened yesterday in New England , that evolved so fast that the models were printing out awful BL 6 hours prior to the event and it went from some innocuous little wave to dropping 6 to 10 inches in places within 36 hours of modeling . So these things are possible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Upton has some snow showers for NYC - no big deal - I think this is the way to go right now 037FPUS51 KOKX 192057ZFPOKXZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY357 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014NYZ072-200915-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-357 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERSMAINLY IN THEAFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.TUESDAY NIGHTMOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERSIN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND9 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WINDCHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 7 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Someone west of I-287 in NJ could get some subsidence, gut feeling and this happened in 12/19/09 (using this as example for LP position) Almost exact position of LP (different 500mb setup tho) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18z RGEM similarly looks to join the evolution of the more amplified models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Someone west of I-287 in NJ could get some subsidence, gut feeling and this happened in 12/19/09 (using this as example for LP position)This is one of those events where I have to just tip my cap to the coastal folks. These events make up for when interior is snow and coast is taint. I need about another 75 mile shift NW just to get in the steady stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like the trends for a further western track is becoming more likely, especially that this is within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This is one of those events where I have to just tip my cap to the coastal folks. These events make up for when interior is snow and coast is taint. I need about another 75 mile shift NW just to get in the steady stuff. You will get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The NAM is indicating the potential for significant lift in a band of heavy snow to the NW of the elongated low pressure area. If this band is able to get onshore, someone is going to get a huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18Z NAM snowfall output map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18Z NAM snowfall output map The Hi-res 4km NAM shows less of a cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You will get it. LOL you don't know that. Interior spots could definitely see under a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Quite the surprise, this one has been suppressed for days. I hope it ticks NW a bit would rather not get dumped on at the expense of others. In some ways there have been alot of these localized events in the past couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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