sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With the 1.3.14 storm, the mayor of NYC said the schools were closed primarily because of the extreme cold in addition to the snow. Is this Wednesday equal in proportion to snow and potential cold? Also, at 4AM Wednesday morning when a NYC staffer sticks their head out the window to decide to close or keep schools open, will it still be snowing as it was on the morning of 1.3.14 or would it have ended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It snows on Long Island? Only when the clouds are super heated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Only when the clouds are super heated. funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With the 1.3.14 storm, the mayor of NYC said the schools were closed primarily because of the extreme cold in addition to the snow. Is this Wednesday equal in proportion to snow and potential cold? Also, at 4AM Wednesday morning when a NYC staffer sticks their head out the window to decide to close or keep schools open, will it still be snowing as it was on the morning of 1.3.14 or would it have ended? It could be snowing again with temps in the low teens. The wind will probably be lighter this time but it will be brutal still when combining the wind and cold. We won't have the inverted trough keeping snow around again though, so it looks like a 15 hour or so event uniformly across the area. By dawn it should be about over but if it's anything like last time roads will still be a mess. I'm almost certainly working from home on Wednesday given how much of a clusterf**k the LIRR gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sorry for the imby post but would 6-10" be a reasonable call for Southern Westchester county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For what its worth (not much) the 18z NMM is right in line with the GFS http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/f57.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GEFS Actually a pretty significant move NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For what its worth (not much) the 18z NMM is right in line with the GFS http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/f57.gif NNM is that juiced? Usually its the ARW so thats a very good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Actually a pretty significant move NW. Unreal. Starting to like 6" even in most of Sussex County. Psyched for my NYC Metro (Upton) brethren! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 16 yrs on these boards and i still get a little lift in my step with a system aimed at us it never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 16 yrs on these boards and i still get a little lift in my step with a system aimed at us it never gets old. That's why we're here. It's what it's all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 16 yrs on these boards and i still get a little lift in my step with a system aimed at us it never gets old. That's why we're here. It's what it's all about. Locked in and ready to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 18Z GFS has 7-10" of snow for your area. No it doesn't... 3-4" w/ 10:1 ratios.. After the last storms debacle I will be hesitant on factoring anything higher than 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just arrived back from Chi and hit some rough turbulence about 30 minutes into the flight. Its good to be back and have something to track right away and also glad I didn't miss anything the last 10 days on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No it doesn't... 3-4" w/ 10:1 ratios.. After the last storms debacle I will be hesitant on factoring anything higher than 12:1. BTW, there's a decent lift. So 15:1 should be the start ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 16 yrs on these boards and i still get a little lift in my step with a system aimed at us it never gets old. Same here, realized I was insane when I got up to watch AM Weather on PBS all the time. Also reloading headers in ne.weather nonstop. Back to the discussion, pumped here in central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Unreal. Starting to like 6" even in most of Sussex County. Psyched for my NYC Metro (Upton) brethren! Be careful with the GEFS and other ensemble guidance. The variance as well as the lower resolution of the models can lead to more of a broadbrush type forecast when it comes to cutoffs and banding. This has burned people in several events in the past. So while the NW trend is encouraging, I would be really careful with the precipitation cutoffs and lean towards the mesoscale models for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Be careful with the GEFS and other ensemble guidance. The variance as well as the lower resolution of the models can lead to more of a broadbrush type forecast when it comes to cutoffs and banding. This has burned people in several events in the past. So while the NW trend is encouraging, I would be really careful with the precipitation cutoffs and lean towards the mesoscale models for that. Great point. But still looks like a decent nw trend from prior runs even on the individuals. GFS seems like last storm the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Be careful with the GEFS and other ensemble guidance. The variance as well as the lower resolution of the models can lead to more of a broadbrush type forecast when it comes to cutoffs and banding. This has burned people in several events in the past. So while the NW trend is encouraging, I would be really careful with the precipitation cutoffs and lean towards the mesoscale models for that. Sage and will certainly watch! I'm in the very southern tier of Sussex so I am hopeful for just a tick NW keeping everyone whole and improving my situation. That said, a few inches of fluff after a week of expecting squat is sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 old king Arthur is rocking meaning the arthritis but it's worth the pain the best barometer in the world my aching bones. The geese were getting their fill today and the ducks are sitting in real tight formation on the water.Sometimes ma nature gives you clues folks not just a computer screen and silicone diodes LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I saw a bunch of geese and ducks lining up along the putnam/westchester border with their feathery backs to the south. I fear the worst..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I saw a bunch of geese and ducks lining up along the putnam/westchester border with their feathery backs to the south. I fear the worst..... What does that symbolize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What does that symbolize? It symbolizes that the coastal front is moving inland and many areas near the shore could have precipitation type problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It symbolizes that the coastal front is moving inland and many areas near the shore could have precipitation type problems.But But don't we have a fresh airmass to work with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 But don't we have a fresh airmass to work with? Yes, everywhere except for Staten Island where the geese will have a significant impact. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 But don't we have a fresh airmass to work with? Lol yes...it will be quite cold for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It symbolizes that the coastal front is moving inland and many areas near the shore could have precipitation type problems.. Thats a good one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes, everywhere except for Staten Island where the geese will have a significant impact. Sorry dude. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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