sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Greater totals than 1.3.14 storm for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 BTW - 9PM is 00z. 12AM is 03z. 3AM is 06z. 6AM is 09z and 9AM is 12Z. 12PM is 18z. From SPC site, 5PM is 22z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2155Z (4:55PM) 00z is 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 BTW - 9PM is 00z. 12AM is 03z. 3AM is 06z. 6AM is 09z and 9AM is 12Z. 12PM is 18z. 00z is 7pm, 03z is 10pm, 06z is 1am, 12z is 7am, 18z is 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z gfs .62 ewr .61 phl .67 jfk .63 lga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What part of my posts were incorrect? BTW - 9PM is 00z. 12AM is 03z. 3AM is 06z. 6AM is 09z and 9AM is 12Z. 12PM is 18z. It's not but who cares..other than your times being off, you were fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Area wide as in CWA from Upton. Im in Uptons CWA and there is very little chance of us receiving 12" from this lol.. These "us" & "we" comments drive me nuts.. If you are speculating or trying to interpret guidance please specify the area you are talking about. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 00z is 7pm I know, I deleted the previous post. Apparently I was adding wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z gfs .62 ewr .61 phl .67 jfk .63 lga Thanks. I'm near EWR. If we even took 12-1 ratios, that's a solid 6 inch snowfall and not counting any potential excess QPF if we get a steady band that overperforms for a period. But based on the UVVs which look very enticing and much better than even the last storm, snow growth and rates should be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For future reference you can always go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html for the current time From SPC site, 5PM is 22z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2155Z (4:55PM) If 5pm is 22z and you add 2 hrs that makes 0z, 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z gfs .62 ewr .61 phl .67 jfk .63 lga That's a general 8-12 for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Greater totals than 1.3.14 storm for NYC? I'm thinking probably about the same for most. The banding could surprise though, the upper air energy looks more robust than that was and there could be some very heavy bands in spots. I think you and I are in a good place for this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Greater totals than 1.3.14 storm for NYC? Anytime you have a CCB in play then the banding can be very impressive, so it's a possibility even if QPF may be a bit lower. High ratios are often realized in heavy banding as well. Big difference between this one and January 2/3 is that the prior storm was mostly light to moderate snow with much less organized/intense banding primarily because the low was so far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I know, I deleted the previous post. Apparently I was adding wrong. No problem. People make mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z gfs .62 ewr .61 phl .67 jfk .63 lga I think all those areas have a 10 base IMO Gona stick with 15 to 1 , the mid levels have so much lift , my fear is the QPF is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Im in Uptons CWA and there is very little chance of us receiving 12" from this lol.. I'm afraid I'd have to agree, even in Manhattan, as I'm not sure even .70" would translate as a foot (20:1 is very, very rare), it will still be fun though as it's another arctic snow which is also very, very rare on the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Im in Uptons CWA and there is very little chance of us receiving 12" from this lol.. These "us" & "we" comments drive me nuts.. If you are speculating or trying to interpret guidance please specify the area you are talking about. Thanks The 18Z GFS has 7-10" of snow for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 4-6"+ contour on the 18z GFS runs back to Sullivan/Sussex Counties. And I believe that's with only 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No problem. People make mistakes. Nothing like seeing a metsfan and YanksFan get along. This place is so convivial...at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Im just hoping for some thundersnow in SW suffolk. Havent seen that in YEARS and looks like this storm may produce that for LI I'm starting to think we get it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nothing like seeing a metsfan and YanksFan get along. This place is so convivial...at times... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have to admit I was a bit worried after the 12z ECMWF wasn't all that impressed and then the 18z NAM backed off slightly. The SREF's are difficult to weigh because a few outlying members can skew the mean. Seeing the 18z GFS this amped up and juiced up and having the 18z RGEM more or less hold serve are good signs. Most areas should have no problem seeing at least warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The SREF s look great the one 25 member is offset by the 2 spot , they are getting closer . The other modeling is rallying to them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm starting to think we get it.. I thought you folks out on LI got into that in the February storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I have to admit I was a bit worried after the 12z ECMWF wasn't all that impressed and then the 18z NAM backed off slightly. The SREF's are difficult to weigh because a few outlying members can skew the mean. Seeing the 18z GFS this amped up and juiced up and having the 18z RGEM more or less hold serve are good signs. Most areas should have no problem seeing at least warning criteria snowfall. I'd be surprised if the NAM didn't deliver an even more slightly amped/precipitative solution at 0z run. Then it will back off at 6z, everyone freaks out, and earthlight and the Mets on the board will have to do the fatherly thing and pull everyone back to sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I thought you folks out on LI got into that in the February storm? Didn't happen here, but it has in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshore Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For last February's storm, out here in Medford in Suffolk County we had Thundersnow. It occurred that evening, amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I thought you folks out on LI got into that in the February storm? Yes we did...so much so that the super heating of the clouds by the electrical strikes slowed the changeover to all snow in extreme southern & eastern parts of the Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes we did...so much so that the super heating of the clouds by the electrical strikes slowed the changeover to all snow in extreme southern & eastern parts of the Island... I forgot about that.....true, about 2 miles to my west up towards you guys got smoked. No temp issues this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes we did...so much so that the super heating of the clouds by the electrical strikes slowed the changeover to all snow in extreme southern & eastern parts of the Island... It snows on Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Impressive vv's with the 18z gfs. Anyone under this will see excessive snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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