96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What a run. 7"+ in all NJ with a 10"+ weenie band right over TTN - NYC and more in CT. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 HR 39 is what time? 2am wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To be fair if the NAM was showing this a lot of you would be tossing it as overdone. It's almost 0.50"+ for all areas, except the far NW. With decent ratios it's 6"+ area wide, with great ratios, well I'll let you'll speculate on you own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The vort max at 39h is just south of Montauk-- beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Solid 12" area wide on the 18Z GFS. 12"+ for Northern LI into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the GFS shows this then its a lock, progressive/lackluster QPF bias? Nope Beautiful 500mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is a VERY tough forecast for places like NE PA and southern NY state. Yikes. This run really helps the Great Northwest of NJ, but sure as heck brings those areas into the mix as well. SREF/GFS is a much better combo area wide than NAM/RGEM at this point --- but ALL models converging on a sweet event for most! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton expects 15-20:1 ratios fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Solid 12" area wide on the 18Z GFS. 12"+ for Northern LI into SNE. Depends on your definition of 'area wide'. I don't think it's 12" in the areas NW on this forum... Possible, yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 HR 39 is what time? 10AM Wednesday? 9z (4 am) Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 700mb low doesn't actually close off until the storm is near the twin forks. The closed off 850mb low passes tucked right into the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 lol! I am reading two different analyzes from the model of Allsnow and Yanksfan27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Middlesex county? Is the 5-9 from the WSW a good call? I actually meant to put 8-12 with my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the GFS shows this then its a lock, progressive/lackluster QPF bias? Nope It's becoming very obvious that this storm will be greater. The NAM may be explosive by tonight. Also, the SREF isn't looking so ridiculous now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 lol! I am reading two different analyzes from the model of Allsnow and Yanksfan27. Just stick with me, I'll steer you right, it's wetter north and south and drier east and west with some windy gusts in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Depends on your definition of 'area wide'. I don't think it's 12" in the areas NW on this forum... Possible, yes... Area wide as in CWA from Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 9z (4 am) Wednesday morning. Thanks Don. We've had a lot of people posting incorrect correlation on the timeframe (Yanksfan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just stick with me, I'll steer you right, it's wetter north and south and drier east and west with some windy gusts in the middle Favorite comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just went through the various levels to try and find some sort of red flag that would suggest that the GFS is too strong with the system or find a sneaky warm tongue that would pose precipitation type problems, I can't find any. This is why it pays to be on the periphery of the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the GFS shows this then its a lock, progressive/lackluster QPF bias? Nope Beautiful 500mb: We want for the vort to be as consolidated and negatively tilted as possible when it approaches us. It looks to take a great track SE of Long Island to put I-95 into the heaviest snow. The NAM is a little weaker and SE with the vort which means the heavy snow is held to near the coast. The GFS is much more consolidated with it which means heavier snow for all and a little further north. It will be a tough call for the I-84 corridor-if the banding makes it that far there should be easily 6"+, but if not there might only be a couple of inches. But for the city on east and south, this is looking like a very solid event. Probably similar totals to the post-New Year's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just went through the various levels to try and find some sort of red flag that would suggest that the GFS is too strong with the system or find a sneaky warm tongue that would pose precipitation type problems, I can't find any. This is why it pays to be on the periphery of the polar vortex. The trough really digs, vort is good for strong LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I actually meant to put 8-12 with my call. Oh ok that's reasonable and the ratios may actually be realized this storm. This storm has a more impressive look than Jan 2/3 with better banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just went through the various levels to try and find some sort of red flag that would suggest that the GFS is too strong with the system or find a sneaky warm tongue that would pose precipitation type problems, I can't find any. This is why it pays to be on the periphery of the polar vortex. Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What part of my posts were incorrect? Its nitpicking yank take it easy dont let it get to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What part of my posts were incorrect? You've been off on the correlation of the timing off the models. Not trying to be testy. Just the timing you've mentioned has been inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Oh ok that's reasonable and the ratios may actually be realized this storm. This storm has a more impressive look than Jan 2/3 with better banding. Yeah when I was writing that earlier I was looking at my first call when I had 6-10 at 12 pm. I updated my totals with the latest information to 8-12 at 4pm, and yes this storm will have good mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You've been off on the correlation of the timing off the models. Not trying to be testy. Just the timing you've mentioned has been inaccurate. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You've been off on the correlation of the timing off the models. Not trying to be testy. Just the timing you've mentioned has been inaccurate. For future reference you can always go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html for the current time From SPC site, 5PM is 22z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2155Z (4:55PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Depends on your definition of 'area wide'. I don't think it's 12" in the areas NW on this forum... Possible, yes... General accums from Upton's snow map show 2-4/4-6 for the areas N&W from NYC. Still not bad. With the temps in the single numbers and wind chills around -10 at times just less time outside and less to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah when I was writing that earlier I was looking at my first call, and yes this storm will have good mesoscale banding. Im just hoping for some thundersnow in SW suffolk. Havent seen that in YEARS and looks like this storm may produce that for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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