+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan I agree with you with the cutoff but its not Feb 2010, more like 12/19/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 All we need is about .50 liquid equiv with such good ratios for a nice storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The NAM is intact from Philly ,NYC through Boston and points SE , The SLP is the same spot No 2 runs are gona be carbon copies , its shave the NW side a bit , not because the center went S and E or because it weakened it . Solutions on the fringes wobble on every run , and figuring out where the 4 inch line is instead of the 6 inch line will shake itself out in the end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan I agree with you with the cutoff but its not Feb 2010, more like 12/19/09 Yes Earthlight is correct, I shouldn't have made that reference. I'm still haunted by that storm. Went to be with a WSW for 4-8", woke up to virga. Saw zero accumulations. You never want to be right on the edge. Luckily the cut off doesn't appear to be as extreme for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Very nice fluff factor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Didn't close off at 700mb, which we need to get the real whopper everyone is hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan I agree with you with the cutoff but its not Feb 2010, more like 12/19/09 Had 2" of snow for that event... I see this being similar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 liveweatherblogs.com is back up and running. Anyone who couldn't read the blog before and wants to take a look its under the NYC Metro blog. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Faster end time on the 18z 4k NAM as well. Shuts off by 04-06z from west to east. 12z Still had solid snow over the whole area through 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm surprised that I haven't seen any outlets drop a 12" as the high end of a range. This looks like a ratio home run, with best vv corresponding with the saturated layer and temps -10 to -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTERCOUNTY...AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...10 TO 19.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILLCONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton has issued winter storm warnings. There are also warnings for areas that were not previously under a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton, WS Warnings for most areas, 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Only a Winter Weather Advisory for 4-6" in the Great Northwest! Grrrrr! Of course, when I awoke yesterday AM, I thought I wasn't going to see a flake. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Only a Winter Weather Advisory for 4-6" in the Great Northwest! Grrrrr! Of course, when I awoke yesterday AM, I thought I wasn't going to see a flake. I'll take it!I hear you- I'm up in Orange County - 4-6 would be a perfectly decent event from how things looked a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For those who are interested, below is the storm total precipitation for the last three runs of the NAM: Note: The last image should read 18z, not 12z. All in all, it is still a very nice storm on the 18z NAM, though the area of heaviest qpf is slightly further south and east this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 UVVs look much more impressive to me than the last storm for a good chunk of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Though Im Queens it should be noted just 50 miles to the east in LI the WSW is for 10-14 Inches! Enjoy guys http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ080&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ080&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.Ut2JOdIo7IU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For those who are interested, below is the storm total precipitation for the last three runs of the NAM: All in all, it is still a very nice storm on the 18z NAM, though the area of heaviest qpf is slightly further south and east this time around. Notice that the last off run shifts a bit S&E and it didn't revert to the 06Z run? There's some hints that it may pull off its' outrageous run by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The NAM is showing 1-3" per hour rates within the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The NAM is showing 1-3" per hour rates within the banding. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1390250539.792668.jpg Extrapolate that banding NE and nassua and suffolk get slammed with the good banding as well. Im really hoping to experience thundersnow as well, this storm looks like it could produce just that for a period overnight tuesday into early wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 HRRR gona catch this tomorrow , Really does a great job with banding . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So is this a SECS or a MECS? Seems the range in the immediate NYC and surrounding areas is 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Border line MEC's for many unless SREF's trump, equivocally a bonerfined MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Blizzard watch out on Nantucket/Cape Cod, only WSW for suffolk county however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The NAM is showing 1-3" per hour rates within the banding. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1390250539.792668.jpg NEWJERSEYSNOWROB is gonna love this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 as noted in the mid ATL forum, the 17z GFS is a major hit, uhhhh, just kidding, but I'm surprised no one's mentioning the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 as noted in the mid ATL forum, the 17z GFS is a major hit ? Also, anybody have the RGEM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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