IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0.25"+ contour in NW NJ shifted 30 miles southeast. The 0.50"+ contour line is also more southeast. Say what you want about H5, it definitely shifted slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan does the play by play according to how it impacts his house. Not the overall run. This run focuses more intense banding along the coast and NW NJ looks to be in deform a bit longer. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Let Allsnow do analysis Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hr 36 Ccb moves east. Steady snow back to del gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan..says is east..then..no.. then is dry...allsnow comes and says its more wet Talk about a rollercoaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's a bit less amped than 12Z, but nothing to really fret about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What is JB's current thinking for NYC/LI? Also, no warmup right afterwards into the 40's, right? Next shot of snow to add to tomorrow's might be when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Same 992 SLP at 36 as compared to 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sref mean precip for kblm is nearly 3/4"..The NMM members have surpassed the arw in total mean precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan..says is east..then..no.. then is dry...allsnow comes and says its more wet Talk about a rollercoaster It's drier, nobody can dispute that. The 0.25"+ and 0.50"+ contours shifted about 25-30 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The suspect of the reason for a slightly less amped output: slightly more elongated PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan is correct. It's a touch drier then 12z nam. NYC close to .50. All of Long Island is over that. Nw jersey sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 4k NAM is drier as well. Snow hits a wall north of I-80. Tomorrow is going to be a long day for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's drier, nobody can dispute that. The 0.25"+ and 0.50"+ contours shifted about 25-30 miles southeast. You are def right. There was a noticeable shift SE with the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yanksfan..says is east..then..no.. then is dry...allsnow comes and says its more wet Talk about a rollercoaster It's drier, nobody can dispute that. The 0.25"+ and 0.50"+ contours shifted about 25-30 miles southeast. These run to run variations happen prior to the storm. Your comparison to feb 2010 was off base and ridiculous. If you're going to do that crap, don't bother posting model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mt Holly updated there map recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 we look at the nam four times a day... these shifts are just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 nam has .50-.60 for coastal regions with less n&w with .20-.30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 These run to run variations happen prior to the storm. Your comparison to feb 2010 was off base and ridiculous. If you're going to do that crap, don't bother posting model analysis. It was in reference to the sharp northern cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 3 runs ago the nam had an inch...not my most trusty model right now. Its doing its normal back and fourth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJeff1019 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mount Holly has posted Winter Storm Warnings for a majority of their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Idk if this was mentioned but Mt Holly upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mt Holly updated there map recently StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png That's a solid map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18Z NAM: 7-9" of snow for NE NJ/NYC. 10"+ of snow for SNJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's going to be a large snowband off to the W of the City. Based on the modeling even from a beginner's viewpoint and from history of seeing these. Question is where it sets up and how long it lingers. The sharp NW NJ cutoff doesn't surprise me at all with the dynamics involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not surprised, the 06z run had less, the 12z amped it up, and the 18z pulled it back a bit. Very typical for these variations to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mt Holly updated there map recently StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Nice Monmouth mt Holly jackpot color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 4k NAM simulated radar shows the snow hitting a brick wall near extreme NNJ for a time period until finally over coming the dry air around 21-22z. Then the area gets demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not surprised, the 06z run had less, the 12z amped it up, and the 18z pulled it back a bit. Very typical for these variations to occur. I just noticed that when you posted that. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm growing confidence that some places along the coast will see up to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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