IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 People hear blizzard and think 93, 96 or 2010 I believe 93 and 96 both had straight up winter storm warnings. Regardless, it's nothing more than hype. The general public has no idea what the true meaning of the word is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That was 1-22-87. Didn't come out of nowhere but snowed 1-2" an hour from 10am to 4pm so it caused traffic nightmares weatherpruf and Bluewave are saying that the storm was severely underestimated and it took until the event started to understand what was really going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Database Connection Error. I know the website owner is working on it. I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just read your Facebook chat...my god that was exhausting.. How do you do it without screaming or large quantities of liquor? You should have seen how it was before Jersey Shore Hurricane News started moderating the questions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I know the website owner is working on it. Okay. I wonder, is it possible for the temps could fall faster than modeled like the New Years storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Database Connection Error. Just use liveweatherblogs.com. I am right at the top at the moment. NYC blogger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You should have seen how it was before Jersey Shore Hurricane News started moderating the questions... How much snow at my nieces house in west nowhereville..not east nowhere ville..the other side of route 457 ..I have a cello recital at 645 sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 weatherpruf and Bluewave are saying that the storm was severely underestimated and it took until the event started to understand what was really going to happen.No I remember it pretty well. Lloyd Lindsay young was predicting 9-12" a couple days beforeMaybe south and east were supposed get less but I definitely remember going to school expecting a really big storm (biggest since 2/83) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That was 1-22-87. Didn't come out of nowhere but snowed 1-2" an hour from 10am to 4pm so it caused traffic nightmares I had a 4 hour drive from Garden City to Long Beach with thundersnow in that one that was supposed to be snow to rain. Finished up with 9 inches of heavy wet snow on the ground in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You should have seen how it was before Jersey Shore Hurricane News started moderating the questions... That would be me and Justin. It went very well today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You should have seen how it was before Jersey Shore Hurricane News started moderating the questions... That would be me and Justin. It went very well today Thanks again for having us and moderating! It's greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just use liveweatherblogs.com. I am right at the top at the moment. NYC blogger. Nice input on your blog. GFS certainly does show potential for higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That was 1-22-87. Didn't come out of nowhere but snowed 1-2" an hour from 10am to 4pm so it caused traffic nightmares That was during an LIRR strike. Commute time via car that afternoon from near Richmond Hill Queens to Babylon was about 9 hours. And by then it had turned to rain in Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice input on your blog. GFS certainly does show potential for higher totals. Thank you, and yes if the storm strengthens as depicted some coastal sections can reach a foot with the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I don't think blizzard warnings are necessary for most of the forecast area. The low is not that strong at 988mb passing east of the benchmark; the banana high is around 1024mb stretching from the Upper Midwest into Ontario. It would be very hard to verify those criteria three hours in a row with a pressure gradient of only 36mb and the low fairly far east except for perhaps extreme coastal sections of LI. I like my location in Southern Brooklyn for this storm. The low pressure still looks to pass east of the Benchmark on the 12z ECM and GFS. I think the coastal areas will receive the majority of the banding, maybe even CSI/thunder snow. Could be subsidence to the west. Pattern looks to support a Miller B threat Monday perhaps a bigger storm later. 12z GFS has a late forming low Monday that looks to dump 4-8". PV remains in place with the -EPO and there's potential to get below 0F Sunday and again in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREFS looking even better as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 New SREFS look even better! .50 line covering most of jersey now, except for extreme north western jersey. Still some members leaning the QPF further west as well. Hmmmmm http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_048_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_039_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=mslp&fhr=039&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How do you guys get the SREF's so fast? I have a paid service and 15z doesn't come out until 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How do you guys get the SREF's so fast? I have a paid service and 15z doesn't come out until 2:30. Good question! Normally it doesnt come on on ncep until 30 past the hour. For what ever reason they updated very early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 15Z SREFs is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF look pretty good. Nice signal that members are west of the mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How do you guys get the SREF's so fast? I have a paid service and 15z doesn't come out until 2:30. We unfortunately have to use the MAG site. I don't know why WB and SV take so long to update them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 15Z SREF is very impressive. I must admit I thought any changes would be very subtle but it's quite a shift. This storm could be a much bigger deal if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How do you guys get the SREF's so fast? I have a paid service and 15z doesn't come out until 2:30. NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0.50"+ contour is NW of KMMU on the 15z SREF. My guess is we have more members showing a crazy solution once again, or perhaps less showing a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 15Z SREFs is very impressive.A lot of models are trying to tuck the low into the coast from 36-39 hours, which the SREF shows with the spread towards Cape May NJ. There is limited time to do so, however, as a kicker in the northern stream is arriving by 42 hours. The shortwave behind the storm should limit amplification and thus restrict totals to the 8-12" amounts, keeping this a notch below a historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS snowfall overlays are available for the 12z run. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS snowfall overlays are available for the 12z run. Epic. Is that with 10:1 ratios? Also, what site is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is that with 10:1 ratios? Also, what site is that from? Can't be 10:1. It has 10" of snow out of .5" or less liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is that with 10:1 ratios? Also, what site is that from? It's not the 10:1 ratios. I got it here: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.