REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The Euro QPF placement is still SE of the consensus but a major improvement from prior runs. Snow maps spitting out a large swath of 2-4" with 4-6" on a narrow band from eastern central NJ, Long Island and extreme eastern New England. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Euro is still playing catch up.Read my recent post i have a good question regarding QPF and why sparse for this type of storm. Still think LI gets 12"+ from eastern nassua on east up to SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I still dont get .5" in a longer duration event with that kind of storm that may stall for several hours as well if modeled correctly? Im thinking QPF should be for coastal areas more like 1" and lesser as you head west. Maybe im missing something especially since this looks noticably bigger for snowfall total for LI as well Watch the SREF at 220. U will b happy w the new 12z data in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 euro 4-6 from ttn-bos Seems like the absolute minimum at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 hr 42 steady snow continues…this is a solid hit….euro is not king anymore.. Yea, Euro has been pretty bad with storms in our area since august. It is not handling this pattern well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Watch the SREF at 220. U will b happy w the new 12z data in it Besides the newly ingested data set my point does hold some merit correct? Slow moving powerful low tucked close to coast and stalls for a time and .5" QPF? Doesnt seem right not saying it should be 2"+ but around 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This thing is insane. It has been trending more and more west over the last 36 hours. I'm sitting here at work eagerly awaiting the 12Z Euro, and i think that the 18Z GFS/NAM could cause some potential stormgasms. Lets hope the lift allows for the banding to occur a little NW of the current forecast so that NW NJ doesn't get shafted like many of the models are showing. That being said, I just told all of my non weather friends that this is the kind of storm that could make us look like idiots if it wavers 40 miles farther out east and much of the area only gets 1 inch. I was just listening to the radio at work and the meteororlogist said 2-3 inches. He clearly hasnt looked at anything since the 0Z's...probably a pre recorded radio hit Well the individual nuances within the mid level flow caused some real issues on the forecast guidance I think. It speaks volumes more to the pattern surrounding this storm, too. The elongated PV in Southeast Canada is spinning around like a gyre of sorts and the ridge on the west coast is established now. So we have all of these disturbances coming over the top of that ridge into a very poor sounding/observation area and the models are just completely lost. Now the question becomes which models are going to handle the PVA and developing mid level centers the best, because that will have major implications for where the banding develops. And in a situation like this with such enhanced lift being modeled, there is bound to be subsidence or a screw zone on the NW side of that band. So we'll have to see if the models waiver in either direction over the next few suites and then start looking at the trends on the HRRR and RAP. My general idea is that this is a 5-8" snowfall for most in our area but the potential for higher amounts will exist wherever that band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The placement of the PV and the rotation of the Vort on the GFS look pretty similar to what the CRAS had, but to a lesser extent and the PV is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I wouldn't focus too much on the exact placement of the model forecast banding just yet. If anything the intense mid level frontogenesis that drives these bands often sets up slightly north/west of model forecasts, which based on today's model output signals to me that areas just north/west of NYC into southern CT could also do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Even places as far north and west as HPN may have a shot at some thundersnow if the NAM comes to fruition. L57 Lapse Rates are at 6.8 in this shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Certainly exciting to see unfold. I love 18 plus hours duration storms; can it still be snowing 8AM Wednesday morning? No rain/ snow line, cold temps,sounds like a great snowstorm whether it be 4-8 or 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I wouldn't focus too much on the exact placement of the model forecast banding just yet. If anything the intense mid level frontogenesis that drives these bands often sets up slightly north/west of model forecasts, which based on today's model output signals to me that areas just north/west of NYC into southern CT could also do very well. I agree with that so i can only assume the maxes may be in those areas over LI then correct? Or will there be intense banding developing over LI and coastal areas as well? Never was good at telling where banding would set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Vortmax is currently in SD and diving. (interesting to note that wind gusts there are around 50+ knots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just goes to show how the models have been struggling on storm details beyond a few days. Today gfsUS_500_avort_048.gif Yesterday gfsUS_500_avort_063.gif Actually think stronger vort over Ontario, helps the flow buckle some more behind our storm, than acts as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Almost 60F in DC right now and 8F in N NY State...this storm will have some temp difference/energy to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sidebar, I'm very very surprised that Blizzard Warnings have not begun to roll out for portions of LI and WSW's for Central NJ. Come on OKX & Mount Holly...get on your game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sidebar, I'm very very surprised that Blizzard Warnings have not begun to roll out for portions of LI and WSW's for Central NJ. Come on OKX & Mount Holly...get on your game. What? Warnings almost always come out with the afternoon package around 4 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Never thought I say this but I think the euro is still playing catch up have a feeling this will trend another 25 to 50 miles north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Always nice to see models trending favorably as it we get very close and Euro is probably still trending. I think at least 0.5" of QPF is almost a lock with potential for more especially closer to the coast and LI. Lack of substantial southern stream influence is the reason QPF amounts in the best case scenario wouldn't exceed an inch. Early Springlike weather enjoying its last hurrah before Old Man Winter strikes, 47.4F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Actually think stronger vort over Ontario, helps the flow buckle some more behind our storm, than acts as a kicker. It's easy for things to get better in short term since the models have been struggling with separation of vorts in thefast flow. These type of sudden short term adjustments were the norm in the 70's and 80's for just about all of our winter storms since the models were so poor back then. Several storms happened without any warnings and were nowcast specials. The flip side of this were warmed events that turned into sunny days or moonlit nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What? Warnings almost always come out with the afternoon package around 4 pm Yeah you're right. I think today is going by especially slow at work so I'm getting overly antsy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We have had blizzard warnings on Long Island in same season, same month? , I think so but not sure. We need winds, is it possible, yes, can schools be closed Wednesday, looking that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NOAA is already calling for 5-9" in Suffolk county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is pretty damn nice 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What is the fetish with blizzard warnings? Strong winds can limit dendrite growth and stunt otherwise good conditions for snow growth and high ratios. Besides blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall accumulations. It's all about visibility. You could technically speaking have a blizzard warning with advisory criteria snowfall as long as the wind, duration and visibility criteria were all achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I will make my stand w the afternoon SREF. It has led the way and all the other modeling is playing catch up with the new data I hope it matters It did a great job jan 3 and will base my opinion off it Side note high res NAM and Rgem are right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What is the fetish with blizzard warnings? Strong winds can limit dendrite growth and stunt otherwise good conditions for snow growth and high ratios. Besides blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall accumulations. It's all about visibility. You could technically speaking have a blizzard warning with advisory criteria snowfall as long as the wind, duration and visibility criteria were all achieved. People hear blizzard and think 93, 96 or 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What is the fetish with blizzard warnings? Strong winds can limit dendrite growth and stunt otherwise good conditions for snow growth and high ratios. Besides blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall accumulations. It's all about visibility. You could technically speaking have a blizzard warning with advisory criteria snowfall as long as the wind, duration and visibility criteria were all achieved. It just sounds dramatic and extreme and for us on the EC usually means a pretty sizable storm c'mon buddy dont you lie when a BW scrolls across your TV/PHONE you get excited as well? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Check out my blog on this storm. Here is the link. Thanks. http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&topicid=70364&groupid=10&Itemid=179 Database Connection Error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 tell me about it; I remember one vicious storm in Jan 87 that seemed to come out of nowhere and left half the state stranded at rush hour. the state police impounded abandoned vehicles. And it was only like 9 inches maybe 10. That was 1-22-87. Didn't come out of nowhere but snowed 1-2" an hour from 10am to 4pm so it caused traffic nightmares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Database Connection Error. Yup Metsfan decided to post a fail to rustle our jimmies hahahaha. Red tagger should obviously be more on top of these connections to be honest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.