PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM is very nice @ 10 to 1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM is very nice @ 10 to 1 . Come on just 30 miles more north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM has steep 5-7H lapse rate of 6.9 C/km for NYC tomorrow evening. Supports thundersnow. Soundings for KISP as far as thundersnow potential? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Come on just 30 miles more north and west... I think another small tick N&W by later runs including 12z euro. I think paul eluded to that regarding the arctic front argueing for another small bump N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The models may be too fast with the Arctic front , its in WPA . I think its a little closer to the coast and not 150 miles SE of us . So if theres gona be a tick in the QPF . Maybe the models slow the front down and that's how we get a more tucked in solution . As it is the lift with this is great , Banding , thunder all of that is possible which will only enhance rates . I think .75 is doable from the city S and E , and 15 to 1 ratios at a min . but if someone woke up on LI Wed AM and got 12 to 15 after being under a band , I wouldn't be shocked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I, for one, am still very nervous in NW NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow, this is looking great. Start time? Duration of good stuff? Possible lows and hi temps later on in period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looking like a nice max for Monmouth ENE across LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looking like a nice max for Monmouth ENE across LI. PR_000-048_0000.gif I just can't believe what this has morphed into over the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Soundings for KISP as far as thundersnow potential? Thanks Yes, 5h-7h lapse rate is 7.1 C/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From a few inches to a full-on DC-BOS snowstorm in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Still would like to see Euro more on board... and yes I know it wasn't great with the post new years storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Still would like to see Euro more on board... and yes I know it wasn't great with the post new years storm It joined at the last minute..hopefully it does the same this time. If not I'd be unlikely to believe it in the face of overwhelming consensus to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This thing is insane. It has been trending more and more west over the last 36 hours. I'm sitting here at work eagerly awaiting the 12Z Euro, and i think that the 18Z GFS/NAM could cause some potential stormgasms. Lets hope the lift allows for the banding to occur a little NW of the current forecast so that NW NJ doesn't get shafted like many of the models are showing.That being said, I just told all of my non weather friends that this is the kind of storm that could make us look like idiots if it wavers 40 miles farther out east and much of the area only gets 1 inch. I was just listening to the radio at work and the meteororlogist said 2-3 inches. He clearly hasnt looked at anything since the 0Z's...probably a pre recorded radio hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 hr 30 light snow in the area…mod-heavy snow dc area…1008 NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 looks like Euro is more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 HR 36 steady snow from phl-nyc…1000 mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Recall that the Euro went from a quarter inch of liquid to three quarters in two runs last go around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 hr 42 steady snow continues…this is a solid hit….euro is not king anymore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 996 vertically stack at hr 42…great banding going on from phl-nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 hr 48 moving out 986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To be fair the 9z SREFs on Sunday was the first to see this threat, so every model caved to it, nobody believed the ARW members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro with a major cave to all other models, but not quite as amplified as the GFS or Canadian model suite. Looks like 0.25-0.50 for all but I would imagine closer to .4 in most locations. Not that it really matters..this model has been playing catchup for two days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 .25+ for everyone in this sub-forum….closer to .40 by the city and coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From a few inches to a full-on DC-BOS snowstorm in 3 days. Just goes to show how the models have been struggling on storm details beyond a few days. Today Yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The Euro QPF placement is still SE of the consensus but a major improvement from prior runs. Snow maps spitting out a large swath of 2-4" with 4-6" on a narrow band from eastern central NJ, Long Island and extreme eastern New England. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Euro is still playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Worried about QPF on the Euro? HA, thats why we have mesoscale models, SREF in an hour, NAM in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 euro 4-6 from ttn-bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I still dont get .5" in a longer duration event with that kind of storm that may stall for several hours as well if modeled correctly? Im thinking QPF should be for coastal areas more like 1" and lesser as you head west. Maybe im missing something especially since this looks noticably bigger for snowfall total for LI as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro with a major cave to all other models, but not quite as amplified as the GFS or Canadian model suite. Looks like 0.25-0.50 for all but I would imagine closer to .4 in most locations. Not that it really matters..this model has been playing catchup for two days now. Just read your Facebook chat...my god that was exhausting.. How do you do it without screaming or large quantities of liquor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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