REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 He means 12/25/02 Yea i always mess the year up. Still to this day for me most intense deform band i experienced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those two storms i didnt ge nowhere near as much as nyc proper did. You guys got 24"+ and more in earthlight land where he bathed and loathed in 30" of the white stuff We didn't do that well in 06 compared to central park. I think around 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I found the SLP for the 12z UKMET and it is stronger and more compact than the 0z which was weaker and more spread out. I can't find the QPF but it's safe to say there is more qpf on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 He means 12/25/02 That was a pleasant surprise. I was supposed to get mostly rain with no accumulating snow. I ended up with 6 inches of snow. I found the SLP for the 12z UKMET and it is stronger and more compact than the 0z which was weaker and more spread out. I can't find the QPF but it's safe to say there is more qpf on the 12z run. Lets see what the Euro shows. It has been lost this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We didn't do that well in 06 compared to central park. I think around 18" 2006 had a core superband that set up right over NYC. This may have something similar. The look is very impressive, and the chances of 12" in the city are increasing. I think final amounts for the region may end up between 10-16", with the heaviest totals over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There should be Blizzard warnings onto Long Island for this , they had em on the 3rd, this really looks worse sitting here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This really argues for the max on the ARCTIC boundary to be closer to the coast , On another note , whatever they did to the Euro a few years back , they should undo . its gona miss its 2nd EC snowstorm inside 3 days in the same month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There should be Blizzard warnings onto Long Island for this , they had em on the 3rd, this really looks worse sitting here . Wouldn't that make the ratios worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The banding looks worlds better for this storm then 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 At least 3 major threats on the long range GFS including super bowl weekend, although that storm is currently depicted as a snow to rain to snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wouldn't that make the ratios worse? Nah think there`s so much lift there . banding will get them over the hump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Incoming Day 7 . not one and done . And day 9 and day 11..I've never seen a better gfs run in my life in the medium to long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The banding looks worlds better for this storm then 1-3 Yeah I think areas that 'only' saw 4-6" that storm could do a lot better this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Active pattern on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 this looks very good, solid last minute trends are so much more believable than 5-day flip flops, at this point I don't much care what the Euro spits out for that reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And day 9 and day 11..I've never seen a better gfs run in my life in the medium to long range[/quotI did a post last week it in the Jan discussion it was an 18z run of the gfs. The 0z run showed the torch showed a system every 2 days for next week. And I said that's great but obviously wrong It really was Was onto the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 My earlier post that if the GFS scenario was to come fruition your talking more than .75" for LI/NYC. A vertically stacked and 18hr.+ system that looks like it can create some intense banding should produce lollipops of 12"+ handily. December 25, 2004 for me proved what banding can do for you in a short time It's always for a lot of these coastal storms that we've had and get due to our unique location. Often times in storms like these you can be underwhelmed for a few hours and then boom, you can pick up 6 inches in around 2-3 hrs time. If we don't see a sudden failure in the model predictions on the strength and track, I'd be really stunned if a few locations even spread out don't pick up a foot. Based on the location/evolution of the storm, I think a good chunk of NJ is sitting pretty with LI in a prime spot to get some really intense snowfall rates. We just do well based on these type of depictions (provided it doesn't change too much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The banding looks worlds better for this storm then 1-3 it does look slightly better.. IM in hoboken so still somewhat outside of the heaviest banding as I was on that storm, but for areas south of me and LI it looks great.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z GGEM is a big hit. Shows a stall for about 3-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You? I have to patrol in the snow tomorrow and Wednesday on foot. Good luck I have to give people their light I will be in manhole that are blowing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z GGEM is a big hit. Shows a stall for about 3-6 hours. Given the strong 500mb signature, the more intense and tucked in solutions are probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A few things to talk about as we head toward crunch time here. First of all, we are now starting to see a model consensus for around .5" QPF in most areas east of EWR, but more the farther east you go. The sudden jump to a consensus on most guidance suggests any variance from here on out should be small. There is a developing signal for very impressive banding from PHL to NYC and guidance has been hammering that away the last run or two including higher resolution stuff. The saturated profiles and very impressive vertical velocities suggest 1-2" per hour rates are possible in all likelihood as this and forms and moves northeast. I would not at all be surprised if there were some high totals inside this banding. As is always the case with these type of events there is going to be a subsidence zone and likely lower QPF to the NW of it. So somebody is going to get screwed and it will probably be NW NJ. More often than not there is a frontogenic band on the NW side of the modeled heaviest QPF. All of that said...it looks like great times are ahead. Get your sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The banding looks worlds better for this storm then 1-3 it does look slightly better.. IM in hoboken so still somewhat outside of the heaviest banding as I was on that storm, but for areas south of me and LI it looks great.. It is worlds better on every model, with the mid level centers closed off south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A few things to talk about as we head toward crunch time here. First of all, we are now starting to see a model consensus for around .5" QPF in most areas east of EWR, but more the farther east you go. The sudden jump to a consensus on most guidance suggests any variance from here on out should be small.There is a developing signal for very impressive banding from PHL to NYC and guidance has been hammering that away the last run or two including higher resolution stuff. The saturated profiles and very impressive vertical velocities suggest 1-2" per hour rates are possible in all likelihood as this and forms and moves northeast. I would not at all be surprised if there were some high totals inside this banding. As is always the case with these type of events there is going to be a subsidence zone and likely lower QPF to the NW of it. So somebody is going to get screwed and it will probably be NW NJ. More often than not there is a frontogenic band on the NW side of the modeled heaviest QPF. All of that said...it looks like great times are ahead. Get your sleep tonight. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1390237549.375899.jpg Looks like eastern nassua on east gets into some intense banding for sure! WOW that looks amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It is worlds better on every model, with the mid level centers closed off south of Long Island. I'm thinking there could be some 12" totals with this in spots if the mid level centers close off like that. Those are some crazy dynamics, and the storm should last quite a while (early afternoon Tuesday to maybe pre-dawn Wednesday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 What is the QPF on the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It is worlds better on every model, with the mid level centers closed off south of Long Island. While I'm not as model or meteorologically savvy as you are, that setup and those UVV maps depicted in my lifetime has almost always produced impressive banding snowfall for our area John (Union County). Depending of course on the setup of those fronto bands you referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A few things to talk about as we head toward crunch time here. First of all, we are now starting to see a model consensus for around .5" QPF in most areas east of EWR, but more the farther east you go. The sudden jump to a consensus on most guidance suggests any variance from here on out should be small. There is a developing signal for very impressive banding from PHL to NYC and guidance has been hammering that away the last run or two including higher resolution stuff. The saturated profiles and very impressive vertical velocities suggest 1-2" per hour rates are possible in all likelihood as this and forms and moves northeast. I would not at all be surprised if there were some high totals inside this banding. As is always the case with these type of events there is going to be a subsidence zone and likely lower QPF to the NW of it. So somebody is going to get screwed and it will probably be NW NJ. More often than not there is a frontogenic band on the NW side of the modeled heaviest QPF. All of that said...it looks like great times are ahead. Get your sleep tonight. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1390237549.375899.jpg NAM has steep 5-7H lapse rate of 6.9 C/km for NYC tomorrow evening. Supports thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm thinking there could be some 12" totals with this in spots if the mid level centers close off like that. Those are some crazy dynamics, and the storm should last quite a while (early afternoon Tuesday to maybe pre-dawn Wednesday) Looks like the heaviest stuff comes in the overnight yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A few things to talk about as we head toward crunch time here. First of all, we are now starting to see a model consensus for around .5" QPF in most areas east of EWR, but more the farther east you go. The sudden jump to a consensus on most guidance suggests any variance from here on out should be small. There is a developing signal for very impressive banding from PHL to NYC and guidance has been hammering that away the last run or two including higher resolution stuff. The saturated profiles and very impressive vertical velocities suggest 1-2" per hour rates are possible in all likelihood as this and forms and moves northeast. I would not at all be surprised if there were some high totals inside this banding. As is always the case with these type of events there is going to be a subsidence zone and likely lower QPF to the NW of it. So somebody is going to get screwed and it will probably be NW NJ. More often than not there is a frontogenic band on the NW side of the modeled heaviest QPF. All of that said...it looks like great times are ahead. Get your sleep tonight. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1390237549.375899.jpg I could see NW NJ getting 5-8 inches. If this getting screwed, I am okay with this on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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