bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We could see some really nice banding set up as the mid level lapse rates push 6.5-7.0. Why can't we get lapse rates this steep during our summer thunderstorm outbreaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Based on the Instant maps, it's 9-12" of snow. With 10:1? AHHHHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We could see some really nice banding set up as the mid level lapse rates push 6.5-7.0. Why can't we get lapse rates this steep during our summer thunderstorm outbreaks? Lol i have thought that too a few times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With 10:1? AHHHHH I'm assuming that it's using 20:1 to 25:1 snowfall ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With 10:1? AHHHHH No at least 15:1 or higher in order to get 9-12" of snow out of .5-.6" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 At 10 to 1 lol Regardless if its overdone , that impressive in just 24 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Do wonder if this will continue trending slightly more for a classic east coast storm near the BM. All this cold and dry doom and gloom for nothing, Earthlight's post was dead on so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 At 10 to 1 lol Regardless if its overdone , that impressive in just 24 hours . That's pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice...can you post it yanks...how does the banding look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 At 10 to 1 lol Regardless if its overdone , that impressive in just 24 hours . Its scary how similar this is looking to 1/2-1/3 right down to the bullseye over absolutes house. The only difference is the trends got better 3 days out last time not 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice...can you post it yanks...how does the banding look Thanks man...much better look that 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks man...much better look that 06z I just cherry picked the two best looking frames. Overall much, much better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Its scary how similar this is looking to 1/2-1/3 right down to the bullseye over absolutes house. The only difference is the trends got better 3 days out last time not 18 hours No complaints here in Monmouth county . Difference to this time , is its not going anywhere . The 15 days of cold Is on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The WRF has at least 5-6" of snow for NE NJ/NYC and 6"+ of snow for LI and Central NJ. BTW, it's based on the 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Okay. Has my attention again! So much for that SE drop for the time being. Wonder if the GFS follows if we see WSW's further NW... I used to live in Monmouth County and i'd be licking my chops about now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton is using 20:1 ratios. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 WSW for 4-7" sound pretty reasonable and they've been on the money with their advisories, watches, and warnings this winter. I do think this could be another 6-10" event based on higher ratios and again local totals to a foot are possible in the best case scenario. This is playing out almost like January 2/3 but I actually think this one has more potential with higher snowfall amounts as it's a stronger storm that's more tucked in to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Weird no one has mentioned "snowpack".. this snow will stay with us for quite long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Weird no one has mentioned "snowpack".. this snow will stay with us for quite long. Read 5 posts back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton is using 20:1 ratios. Amazing. Soundings look better than jan 3 20 to 1 is high , but possible. Drop .75 here and we out do jan 3 on the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rgem is a crusher! http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton is using 20:1 ratios. Amazing.They got that from the SREF Plume LAG 3z .55" gives 11+" Snow. See my earlier post 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rgem is a crusher! http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif This keeps getting better!! Hilarious... It's so similar to the 1/3 event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Soundings look better than jan 3 20 to 1 is high , but possible. Drop .75 here and we out do jan 3 on the coast . Got 9 inches from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good morning sst's ripe for someone to be pleasantly surprised i wouldn't rule out OES love even with a northerly wind.The atlantic is our friend this time of the season more to be revealed.The models are bi-polar cut the figures in half you won't be disappointed anymore is all good just my humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Its interesting that the hi res models lead the way again just like the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Soundings look better than jan 3 20 to 1 is high , but possible. Drop .75 here and we out do jan 3 on the coast . Banking on high ratios always makes me nervous. Seems like they're never as good as expected for one reason or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 One guarantee today is that 12z GFS and EURO are going to be server crashing today lol. The turnaround in the past 24 hours is comparable to BD 2010. The models simply put just dropped the ball and found this development late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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