IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12Z NAM is running, will update as new information comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That's bc you bought the hype of colder aloft= automatic high ratios. The winds were 40knt plus throughout the snowgrowth. Don't care how cold it is, you dont get good dendrites with that kind of wind. Different set up this time. Agreed 700 MB looks to b in the right area , and only think back to dec around Philly Deleware and in SNJ They all went 20 to 1 due to great lift . If Upton saying 20 to 1 I'm gona believe them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If I recall correctly, though, some major stations such as LGA and JFK had ratios between 15 and 20:1 during the January 3 storm. It's often the better CCB banding that has the best ratios. Areas further west never got into that banding. The banding has the best LIFT in the snowgrowth zone, which helps for ratios. Of course, cold temperatures help as well, but without sufficient lifting in the snowgrowth zone, it's hard to consistently get good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That's bc you bought the hype of colder aloft= automatic high ratios. The winds were 40kt-60kt throughout the snowgrowth region. Don't care how cold it is, you dont get good dendrites with that kind of wind. Different set up this time. Good point, nyc was also just around -5c - -7c for the first 1/2 of the storm at 700mb. By 3am the dendrites were beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Vort is stronger and a bit faster on the NAM. PV is slightly west of 6z, which is not as good. Edit: Changes negligible through 12. Some things look better, some worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Vort is stronger and a bit faster on the NAM. PV is slightly west of 6z, which is not as good. Edit: Changes negligible through 12. In a splitting PV scenario, you want the further south piece to be further west. That can buckle the flow a bit, shift the trough axis a bit, and "tug" the storm a bit closer to the coast. As long as the north piece moves to the 50/50 region, we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That's bc you bought the hype of colder aloft= automatic high ratios. The winds were 40kt-60kt throughout the snowgrowth region. Don't care how cold it is, you dont get good dendrites with that kind of wind. Different set up this time. I bought nothing . Never thought we were ey ting high ratios during that storm. It's so rare to get ratios more than 15-1 in these parts . .(when not in a heavy band) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If I recall correctly, though, some major stations such as LGA and JFK had ratios between 15 and 20:1 during the January 3 storm. It's often the better CCB banding that has the best ratios. Areas further west never got into that banding. The banding has the best LIFT in the snowgrowth zone, which helps for ratios. Of course, cold temperatures help as well, but without sufficient lifting in the snowgrowth zone, it's hard to consistently get good ratios. Yeah, ISP had 11.2 of snow off .61 liquid equiv. 2 32 18 25 -7 40 0 0.27 4.7 0 16.3 25 40 M M 10 168 35 303 18 7 13 -18 52 0 0.34 6.5 9 19.2 33 330 M M 6 1289 40 320 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 In a splitting PV scenario, you want the further south piece to be further west. That can buckle the flow a bit, shift the trough axis a bit, and "tug" the storm a bit closer to the coast. As long as the north piece moves to the 50/50 region, we're good. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gotcha. If this were a "we're rooting for the whole PV to get out of the way" type of event, then the PV being further west would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ralph where did your post go? I agree with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The energy is about the same strength but the vort is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I actually see no 'major' changes thru 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I actually see no 'major' changes thru 18. The increase in amplification is pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ralph where did your post go? I agree with you!energy looked more consolidated at first then by hr 15 was actually more strung out and weaker with the vort. Minor c hanges thus far imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just a quick glance, I'd say it shifts things N and W a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ralph where did your post go? I agree with you!energy looked more consolidated at first then by hr 15 was actually more strung out and weaker with the vort. Minor c hanges thus far imocomparing to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Clearly, it's going to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Slightly more amplification of the vort this run, nothing earth shattering. Low over NC hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks better than 6z definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If I recall correctly, though, some major stations such as LGA and JFK had ratios between 15 and 20:1 during the January 3 storm. It's often the better CCB banding that has the best ratios. Areas further west never got into that banding. The banding has the best LIFT in the snowgrowth zone, which helps for ratios. Of course, cold temperatures help as well, but without sufficient lifting in the snowgrowth zone, it's hard to consistently get good ratios. Great point. We saw snow here (Poughkeepsie) for 24 hours with temperatures in the single digits, and ended up with a total of around 6" of snow with a liquid equivalent of around 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well the NAM is going to pull one of it's ridiculous runs, the vort is really digging at hour 33. Snow breaking out over the area from west to east. Sub 1000mb already over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well the NAM is going to pull one of it's ridiculous runs, the vort is really digging at hour 33. Snow breaking out over the area from west to east. Sub 1000mb already over NC. Lol so par for the course with the NAM then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SLP 4MB stronger at 30 12z compared to 36 hour at 6z , Precip Shield is further W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well the NAM is going to pull one of it's ridiculous runs, the vort is really digging at hour 33. Snow breaking out over the area from west to east. Sub 1000mb already over NC. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM at 36 looks more tucked in than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nam gets aggressive at hours 30-36 with the vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yay! Not that far fetched IMO if it digs that much and starts of the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hr 36 steady snow. Heavy Phl-balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hour 36 moderate snow for the area. Heaviest snows SW of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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