wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Let's see the SREF s next moveOld data though. Nam is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Paul when do the next sref's and NAM run initiate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Srefs 8 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Id be pissed if the ARW members didnt show 1.00 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Srefs 8 mins I MUST find a way to post europe's "final countdown" during a storm threat in a important model run suite for just the laughs. Forecasting is what we're here for in these threads outside of banter but the humor keeps us alive. Your right though the NAM is going to be a pretty important trend setter if you will. IIRC the sref's arent too entirely accurate this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Old data though. Nam is what we want to see.820 no ?I'm way more interested in the RGEM than the NAM this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I MUST find a way to post europe's "final countdown" during a storm threat in a important model run suite for just the laughs. Forecasting is what we're here for in these threads outside of banter but the humor keeps us alive. Your right though the NAM is going to be a pretty important trend setter if you will. IIRC the sref's arent too entirely accurate this season The srefs did real well with the last storm and was one of the first to sniff out that this one might be more than a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Srefs are out. Big hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Srefs are out. Big hit again. Post the image and dont be a tease??? great news my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A tick SE with the low and a bit weaker as well. Consistent with the 6z pull back. Much less west leaning spread for the mslp as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mmmm looks like a comma head with that image, observation based assumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Getting 0.5" of QPF with high ratios should be considered a win with this storm. At this point, the models should have more subtle shifts than anything dramatic except maybe the Euro which is still catching up to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Getting 0.5" of QPF with high ratios should be considered a win with this storm. At this point, the models should have more subtle shifts than anything dramatic except maybe the Euro which is still catching up to the other models. You think? 24 hours ago we were HOPING to get 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those high ratios never materialize . Last storm my rations were 11-1 a and it was snowing in single digits . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A tick SE with the low and a bit weaker as well. Consistent with the 6z pull back. Much less west leaning spread for the mslp as well.still a ton of spread to the n and w of the slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Id be pissed if the ARW members didnt show 1.00 qpf Well atleast now we know whos swinging for the fences with this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 still a ton of spread to the n and w of r thehe slp Yeah...and on the .5 qpf contour. Still huge solutions in the member set. But, again, not entirely new data. The NAM is what we want to see come in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 still a ton of spread to the n and w of r thehe slp Yeah...and on the .5 qpf contour. Still huge solutions in the member set. But, again, not entirely new data. The NAM is what we want to see come in stronger. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 09z SREF's still look great. We must have lost a few of the ridiculous members which were skewing the mean before. The good news is everyone is still 0.25"+ and with 12:1 ratios that's at least 3" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 As expected --- the SE shift commences. It's like clockwork. We start with nothing, it rockets back NW and then settles back down SE towards where it was a whiff in the first place. Still, .25 for NW zones with high ratios will be beautiful when we had SQUAT 24 hours ago!!! There's no southeast shift yet , GFS ensembles were fine news data in at 12z . Hang in there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREFs looks same to me as far as QPF goes....12z runs today I think will lock in a 3-6/4-8 type deal with 12 to maybe 15:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those high ratios never materialize . Last storm my rations were 11-1 a and it was snowing in single digits . This storms ratios will be better than the last one on average, 700mb will be much colder for the duration vs just the last 3rd of the pervious one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not sure if anyone saw the 00z GGEM ensembles. They focus a very heavy band right over the area with the heaviest banding right over NE NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's no southeast shift yet , GFS ensembles were fine news data in at 12z . Hang in there . Not complaining Paul! I'm happy. Even if it's slight, it still snows on a day that it wasn't supposed to snow a flake up here merely hours ago! Love your style and work on here by the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREFs looks same to me as far as QPF goes....12z runs today I think will lock in a 3-6/4-8 type deal with 12 to maybe 15:1 ratios They backed off some for coastal sections as the 0.75"+ contour is now further offshore. For NNJ folks it's still about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not complaining Paul! I'm happy. Even if it's slight, it still snows on a day that it wasn't supposed to snow a flake up here merely hours ago! Love your style and work on here by the way... Appreciate , Hope guys read Upton this AM. They are at 20 to 1 with this storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not sure if anyone saw the 00z GGEM ensembles. They focus a very heavy band right over the area with the heaviest banding right over NE NJ and NYC.you must have missed the cras then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not sure if anyone saw the 00z GGEM ensembles. They focus a very heavy band right over the area with the heaviest banding right over NE NJ and NYC. On SV, I don't see that on the mean. But I do see a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those high ratios never materialize . Last storm my rations were 11-1 a and it was snowing in single digits . That's bc you bought the hype of colder aloft= automatic high ratios. The winds were 40kt-60kt throughout the snowgrowth region. Don't care how cold it is, you dont get good dendrites with that kind of wind. Different set up this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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