+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's slightly wetter than the OP. No the OP is wetter, 0.50 over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton going 20-1/25-1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton issued them too..kinda surprised. Shows how much the euro is not what it used to be They're also confident in 20:1 or greater ratios. Even the Euro with 20:1 ratios is 4-5" for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Upton going 20-1/25-1 ratios Man if the RGEM or some of those SREF members are right , it would be a show . As it is .50 on the GFS is a great look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 They're also confident in 20:1 or greater ratios. Even the Euro with 20:1 ratios is 4-5" for a lot of people. The Euro and NAM would prob out you there. No ? Think they are not on board with the bigger QPF s yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is so close in the NW part of this forum. My gut thinks that shift is done and we settle back SE a bit. Seen it so many times with these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is AM rush hour tomorrow tomorrow white or dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The Euro and NAM would prob out you there. No ? Think they are not on board with the bigger QPF s yet I just think that as much confidence as one can have in ratios this high, it might not make sense to weigh them 100% just yet. I feel like at this juncture, you can talk about them, give weight to them, and of course have them as a factor, though. Once the event gets closer and 20:1 + ratios are truly imminent, they will increase their forecast totals, assuming the Euro comes on board. Unless, of course, the models jump back SE or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is AM rush hour tomorrow tomorrow white or dry? Dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gut feeling is that NW areas will get subsidence and the snow totals will be like 12/19/09 across the area (cut in half) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gut feeling is that NW areas will get subsidence and the snow totals will be like 12/19/09 across the area (cut in half) Do you mean fringed, or subsidence? Subsidence is an absence of lift in between two heavy bands, based on the fact that what comes up has to come down, pretty much. So, heavy lift to the west and to the east favors downward motion in between. Fringed is just not being close enough to the storm's center and having dry air be the main problem in getting heavier precipitation into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just think that as much confidence as one can have in ratios this high, it might not make sense to weigh them 100% just yet. I feel like at this juncture, you can talk about them, give weight to them, and of course have them as a factor, though. Once the event gets closer and 20:1 + ratios are truly imminent, they will increase their forecast totals, assuming the Euro comes on board. Unless, of course, the models jump back SE or something. To me the GFS ensembles have been steady at close to .50 I'm ready to jump on that number Think the euro has been playing QPF catch up this year . If the RGEM or SREF don't back off curious to see how much weight is given to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Fringed is what I was referring to for NW. It still snows but we can run to a hilltop and see it snowing better 30 miles away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Do you mean fringed, or subsidence? Subsidence is an absence of lift in between two heavy bands, based on the fact that what comes up has to come down, pretty much. So, heavy lift to the west and to the east favors downward motion in between. Fringed is just not being close enough to the storm's center and having dry air be the main problem in getting heavier precipitation into the area. This storm can go either way right now. The models picked up the stronger vort. It is now time to see if it can dig more and maybe even close off to make an even bigger storm or it just goes further east and doesnt bomb like we need it to for a bigger storm. This pattern can be explained in one word, FRAGILE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Do you mean fringed, or subsidence? Subsidence is an absence of lift in between two heavy bands, based on the fact that what comes up has to come down, pretty much. So, heavy lift to the west and to the east favors downward motion in between. Fringed is just not being close enough to the storm's center and having dry air be the main problem in getting heavier precipitation into the area. Both. Since the heaviest snow will be over S/CNJ and LI (on the models), and they are closer to the storm, this is typical NW screw storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Of course given where we were yesterday, I will take anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To me the GFS ensembles have been steady at close to .50 I'm ready to jump on that number Think the euro has been playing QPF catch up this year . If the RGEM or SREF don't back off curious to see how much weight is given to it. I do tend to agree with the more robust shortwaves and positive vorticty advection solutions via the GFS rather than the Euro. But of course, precipitation is the hardest quantity for a model to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is so close in the NW part of this forum. My gut thinks that shift is done and we settle back SE a bit. Seen it so many times with these events. That is a solid observation and a possibility I can see happening. 12z runs will be telling as to if this has more room to come NW or if we have maxed that adjustment and even settle back SE slightly. My guess is it is more likely we have maxed the NW adjustment and may even settle SE a little. But that said I would still not rule out a little more NW trend either. I think Mt Holly's current map is solid at this point. It is not far off from a significant to major snow fall for the entire area but as it stands now its a minor to moderate event NW and moderate to significant S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To keep everyone grounded remember 24 hours ago it was looking like a coating to inch. What a crazy turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The one thing that the models will pick up at the very end is where the banding will set up . It something the high res s will see . The models are hinting at some really good lift just off the coast . Just like QPF is the one of the harder equations for the models to solve Banding is often the last thing solved . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The one thing that the models will pick up at the very end is where the banding will set up . It something the high res s will see . The models are hinting at some really good lift just off the coast . Just like QPF is the one of the harder equations for the models to solve Banding is often the last thing solved . Odds are, SE of the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Either way, I think Long Island does best with good ratios near the -10c 850 line. The runs today and tonight should help pin down QPF. But even the Euro moved in the right direction from just 24 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Odds are, SE of the big cities Looks like the same area from 1-2/3 storm, CNJ, southern NYC, LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The one thing that the models will pick up at the very end is where the banding will set up . It something the high res s will see . The models are hinting at some really good lift just off the coast . Just like QPF is the one of the harder equations for the models to solve Banding is often the last thing solved . This setup like wolf said is better aloft than the 1/3 event. Im not entirely sure a N&W trend is done. The major shifts most likely but this storm looks like it just wants to dig and make more noise than what it was originally forecast to do. That said, 12z should set what trend or outcome would likely come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I cannot ignore how similar the snow maps off the models are distributed in the same area as 12/19/09, we could use this to see how screwed NW zones get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is so close in the NW part of this forum. My gut thinks that shift is done and we settle back SE a bit. Seen it so many times with these events. This storm is similar to the Boxing Day Blizzard although totals are much lower as of now - where the eastern half of NJ gets the worst conditions and every mile north and west you travel from there totals decline this storm features a much colder airmass by at least 10 -15 degrees then the Boxing Day Blizzard had as temps will dive into the single digits towards the latter part of this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This setup like wolf said is better aloft than the 1/3 event. Im not entirely sure a N&W trend is done. The major shifts most likely but this storm looks like it just wants to dig and make more noise than what it was originally forecast to do. That said, 12z should set what trend or outcome would likely come to fruition There should be minor to moderate shifts today. That's definitely likely, considering that the computer models have been like that for the previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Fringed is what I was referring to for NW. It still snows but we can run to a hilltop and see it snowing better 30 miles away! This happens all too often up here. The models always tend to overdo the amount of moisture this far inland in a system like this, so while it still snows, it often doesn't reach the totals that the models would lead you to believe. In reality, the heavier accumulating snow usually reaches as far as north as about Danbury. I'm not complaining though, because we will often jackpot in other setups (like SWFE's). In any event, whatever we can put down looks to stay. The GFS has caved to the other models with the "warm-up" it was advertising. It had me in the low 50's yesterday on Super Bowl weekend, now the warmest I get is 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Shifts have to occur for a reason. What this will come down to is the strength of the vort which will be sampled for the first time in the conus for the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Let's see the SREF s next move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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