Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No watches yet for Upton, but if you can't sleep like myself, check your hourly grids, EWR NYC all showing 5" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No watches yet for Upton, but if you can't sleep like myself, check your hourly grids, EWR NYC all showing 5" or so. Upton issued them too..kinda surprised. Shows how much the euro is not what it used to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not a chanceoops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 6Z RGEM ticked a hair SE but still really good for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY... METROPOLITAN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER... LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS... NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE DAY... AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AT NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING... SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS... FALLING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND WALKING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. EXTREME COLD AND LOW WIND CHILLS COULD CAUSE FROST BITE. DRESS APPROPRIATELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 6Z GFS has slightly less snowfall, but still a solid 6-8" of snow for NYC and up to 9" of snow at LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs looks similar thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 6Z GFS has slightly less snowfall, but still a solid 6-8" of snow for NYC and up to 9" of snow at LI. Qpf looks the same..a tad over .4" nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Qpf looks the same..a tad over .4" nyc The snowfall output map has lessened a bit, but the heavier snow shifted from Southern PA to LI and Coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lets all panic models lessen snowfall amounts!!!! Na seems we have a general agreement on at least 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z EC Esemble mean qpf output is exactly double what the operational run of the model was showing. Basically .15-.20 for all of NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lets all panic models lessen snowfall amounts!!!! Na seems we have a general agreement on at least 1-2" Might wanna bump that to double the amount. I think that 3-6" of snow is a good bet, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF Plume---LAG---03Z has .55" liquid which it apparently multiplies by a 20X compression ratio to get its 11+" storm total. This output went from a trace to this in 5 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Start time? I need to do a bunch of driving tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Late morning 9- noonish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The cras is an all out beast! Likely overdone but a beast nonetheless. Fwiw this model nailed the 1/2 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Start time? I need to do a bunch of driving tomorrow...Start 10AM Tues. Worst from 10PM Tues-7AM Wed. Over by 1PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gona put last post in vendor section . This is not a quick hitting storm , pretty long duration event Looking at 18 hours of snow varying in intensity . Models may still have some catching up to do Some SREF members are still amped and that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow! Talk about a N&W trend in 24 hours! And we may still not be done trending west with the heaviest precip and more digging with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Start 10AM Tues. Worst from 10PM Tues-7AM Wed. Over by 1PM. it's not snowing anywhere near that long. cut that in half if youre lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 it's not snowing anywhere near that long. cut that in half if youre lucky. That's a bit too short. I'd say that the storm is going to be a solid 15 to 18 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That's a bit too short. I'd say that the storm is going to be a solid 15 to 18 hour event. Well the duration of the event is going to depend on which midlevel depiction wins out. If we can close off H5 like the ARWs and 0z RGEM show; if we get the transient blocking signature to hold...etc. If you favor the Euro solution, it a shorter duration event. If you favor the RGEM/SREFs, it's a longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well the duration of the event is going to depend on which midlevel depiction wins out. If we can close off H5 like the ARWs and 0z RGEM show; if we get the transient blocking signature to hold...etc. If you favor the Euro solution, it a shorter duration event. If you favor the RGEM/SREFs, it's a longer duration event.I think a little more blocking and N&W trend today and its going to be a pretty signifigant storm for the tri-state area. What a trend in 24 hours right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think a little more blocking and N&W trend today and its going to be a pretty signifigant storm for the tri-state area. What a trend in 24 hours right?! Yeah, nuts. 6z shifted SE a bit, so I wouldn't automatically assume the NW trend continues. 12z runs today will be the first to get a good sampling from the vort dropping into the CONUS. HUGE runs. All options on the table, IMO, from a complete miss to 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, nuts. 6z shifted SE a bit, so I wouldn't automatically assume the NW trend continues. 12z runs today will be the first to get a good sampling from the vort dropping into the CONUS. HUGE runs. All options on the table, IMO, from a complete miss to 20". This storm and the jan 2nd and 3rd system really make you think what epic snow fall for the seasons we had if we had better blocking and a slower flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This storm and the jan 2nd and 3rd system really make you think what epic snow fall for the seasons we had if we had better blocking and a slower flow No doubt. This setup is better aloft than 1/3, should the vort come in as strong as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No doubt. This setup is better aloft than 1/3, should the vort come in as strong as modeled. Yea i think this storm is going to surprise alot of people for sure. As you said that strong vort is key, and in a progressive pattern the result is still fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 6z GEFS has 0.25-0.50 qpf regionwide, 0.50 contour in Jersey shore and western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 6z GEFS has 0.25-0.50 qpf regionwide, 0.50 contour in Jersey shore and western LI It's slightly wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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