Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 2 - 4" NYC south and east including Philly. That's 10 - 1 ratio's so 3 - 5" looks pretty good EC wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's an improvement so that's good, and it's likely lagging behind the other models. As far as the Nam goes, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it showed a crazy amped up solution on its next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Next stop, NAM at 3 a.m. Actually SREF in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ^this. it will have one of those crazy runs I can see 6z pulling it for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ECM not buying it yet so it seems ecmwf_snow_24_neng_10.png Good. ECM has been awful this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good. ECM has been awful this season. I agree ECM isn't that awful. Trended northwest from the 0z run and it's the driest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes it did trended nw from 12z...so hopefully the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another half an hour to an hour then off to bed hopefully awakened to news that .75 qpf for nyc/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Day 2 4 & 8 inch probabilities from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF's will likely be lower due to NAM's lackluster run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF's will likely be lower due to NAM's lackluster run. Hard to get better than the SREF at 21z so i expect the same..a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And I'll eat my words again...they look wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Earthlight, do you see WSW for the NYC/NJ/LI with Upton's morning package; also when do the models show the ealiest flakes coming in? 3 day holiday, potential for a school closer on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And I'll eat my words again...they look wetter. Wow really? That would be imperessive, esp since now we are getting more into its range. - I dont want to turn my computer back on lol (can you post it when you get a chance) =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And I'll eat my words again...they look wetter. Unbelievable. There must be some crazy member solutions in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow really? That would be imperessive, esp since now we are getting more into its range. - I dont want to turn my computer back on lol (can you post it when you get a chance) =) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_060_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_060_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Thanks man...looks good esp after what the nam showed. The plumes will probably look even nicer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF Mean Total Precip KNYC .58 ERW .54 ISP .71 POU .32 BLM .68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 21Z SREF Plume Mean for LGA: 10.49" of snow. BTW, 6 members of the 21Z SREF are going for 13-15" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The continued budging of the SREF mean is very promising, and would now indicate double-digit totals for much of the NYC region -- the NAM will likely show something prolific at either 6 or 12z. While a 3-6" event appears likely, the upper end appears to have the bust potential -- and if the GFS continues to trend wetter, odds of 6"+ will become much better. As of now, I think the park will measure about 6", but there is sneaky potential for another low-end KU here. Surprising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 21Z SREF Plume Mean for LGA: 10.49" of snow. 03z is the newest SREF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 03z is the newest SREF run. It's not out yet on the NCEP or PSU sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Start time if this comes to fruition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF Mean Total Precip KNYC .58 ERW .54 ISP .71 POU .32 BLM .68 About .10 more on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Start time if this comes to fruition? Tomorrow between 4PM and 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's not out yet on the NCEP or PSU sites. I have it on weather bell..I posted the total precip which would wind up giving a large section of the area double digit totals if taken verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's not out yet on the NCEP or PSU sites. Earthlight just posted it. Also, the plumes are out as well. Slight bump up to 11.22 for BDR. Almost all the amped/high amounts are the ARW ensembles. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140120&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BDR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Even when I deduct the bottom and top two members, BLM is still 12". Everywhere is pretty much 10" on their respective means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Earthlight just posted it. Sorry. I'm a bit behind. I'm still waiting for the Plumes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 day2_psnow_gt_04.gif day2_psnow_gt_08.gif Day 2 4 & 8 inch probabilities from HPC Those arent the new ones... Kocin did the newest ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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