IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The H5 LP looks like it wants to curl. Might need to watch that NW Atlantic Ridge. It may be more intense than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow 4-6 for NYC 12+ Long Island Without ratios Well that's really not true, for Long Island at least. More like 6-9 without ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well that's really not true, for Long Island at least. More like 6-9 without ratios Sv maps 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 JB Honking Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi49m I-95 corridor snowstorm with near blizzard conditions at end growing more likely tom night into Tuesday. System continuing to look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 .42 knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is starting to look quite similar to 1/2-1/3 Expect winds to pick as well - very cold behind storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The Ukie looks decent...certainly not a whiff but not the RGEM either. About what you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I fully expect the NAM at some point tomorrow to come up with one of its way over the top solutions as it also moves way northwest - ALL ABOARD !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's amazing that the Euro seems to be late to the game this winter. Years past it was the leader of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I fully expect the NAM at some point tomorrow to come up with one of its way over the top solutions as it also moves way northwest - ALL ABOARD !!! Well the 18Z NAM run for KACY was pretty close to "over the top" spitting out 16.6" with ratios as per cobb bufkit output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ukie actually isn't very excited..but the trend on almost every model is really exciting tonight. Not only are we seeing improved upper levels but now the models are picking up on the fact that the changes aloft and in the mid levels will allow for more precipitation expansion on the NW side and potential for banding near the coast. This all goes back to the improved jet structure and changes aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The higher resolution models are eating this one up. Might be something to keep an eye on with the 21z SREF when it comes out to see if this amped trend continues. Unfortunately, I'm back in PA so if this does turn into something big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ukie actually isn't very excited..but the trend on almost every model is really exciting tonight. Not only are we seeing improved upper levels but now the models are picking up on the fact that the changes aloft and in the mid levels will allow for more precipitation expansion on the NW side and potential for banding near the coast. This all goes back to the improved jet structure and changes aloft. Yeah, as long as the UKMET isn't too lax about this storm, everything is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The higher resolution models are eating this one up. Might be something to keep an eye on with the 21z SREF when it comes out to see if this amped trend continues. Unfortunately, I'm back in PA so if this does turn into something big... Are you going to be at NJ on time for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The higher resolution models are eating this one up. Might be something to keep an eye on with the 21z SREF when it comes out to see if this amped trend continues. Unfortunately, I'm back in PA so if this does turn into something big... Are you going to be at NJ on time for the storm? Nope. College just started back up, so I'm here most likely for the rest of the winter. Does give me a chance to head to the weather center tomorrow and really do some work if this continues to trend favorably aloft. Would love to see you guys pull this one off. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ggem is a big hit 990 over bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Now to follow my thoughts of a cold/dry run.....my call for this storm : SNJ/CNJ/NNJ NYC WLI: 7-10" C/ELI : 10-14" SNE into BOS : 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GGEM looks fantastic. Better than the GFS with closed mid level centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hr 48 Ggem Ccb over the area. Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So why no buzz on NOAA discussion or Sunday night 11PM newscasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This would be quite the event. The trends have been really encouraging. If the 12z models come in even slightly better tomorrow, then I think you guys have yourselves a storm! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So why no buzz on NOAA discussion or Sunday night 11PM newscasts? Upton will say something soon...the news networks didn't have enough time to look at everything or are being cautious considering the big change. Both are fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So why no buzz on NOAA discussion or Sunday night 11PM newscasts? Fox 5 NY forecast mentioned that some sections of Long island could get 2-3" a few minuets ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GGEM looks fantastic. Better than the GFS with closed mid level centers. well it should considering its just an extended version of the rgem ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Fox 5 NY forecast mentioned that some sections of Long island could get 2-3" a few minuets ago Jeff Smith coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GGEM looks fantastic. Better than the GFS with closed mid level centers. well it should considering its just an extended version of the rgem ? They can actually be quite different sometimes given their resolution gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I will praise the day when people stop posting TV mets forecasts in a discussion thread. Completely irrelevant and useless information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1105 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014VALID JAN 20/0000 UTC THRU JAN 23/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORTRANGE FORECASTS. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ON TUESDAYLOW MOVING OUT OF THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ASHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE GYRE INEASTERN CANADA -- PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX. IT IS ALSO QUITEAGREEABLE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH THE 00Z GFS IS ONEOF THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS. A CHECK OF THE VERTICAL VELOCITYFIELDS DOES NOT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTHE GFS UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES BY NOVA SCOTIA. A GENERAL MODELCOMPROMISE IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITHAVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE.www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...ROTH http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd latest from the OPC http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Craig Allen on channel 11 did the best job. Talked about the uncertainty. Said while some models give a little snow, others give a lot. He said it could be a snowfall that we have to plow and shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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