earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Since the 0z NAM (not saying it is right or wrong) went back south and east then isn't it more then likely the 03z SREF will do the same thing since I believe it usually follows the NAM? Good thing we'll be asleep. You'll be asleep. I'll be awake with the late night weenies to drown in our own tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Bad sign with the nam? seems like this will be a coastal NJ storm and also LI - this should be covered in snow again http://exit82.com/beach-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 18Z NAM is always amped up, to me it looks like NYC will see at least 1"-3" maybe more. The overall trend is for a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF-LAG-21Z now shows 10.5", having gone from a trace to this in just 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What time frame are we in here for potential if any start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What time does the gfs run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What time does the gfs run? 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 4k 00z NAM is northwest of the regular NAM. Gets the steady snow to about KMMU for a 3 hour period as the storm pivots. Not really significant for NNJ but better for the coast and eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Whoa, the 00z RGEM looks really, really robust with the shortwave @ 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The RGEM is significantly west of the NAM at 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The RGEM is tremendously amped up from what I can see through 48 hrs. Looks similar to some of the wetter SREF members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The RGEM is significantly west of the NAM at 48... That's an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rgem is almost too west verbatim.....dry slot into Long Island...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 srefs and nam have been awful especially this far out. just watch the ggem gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rgem is almost too west verbatim.....dry slot into Long Island......In these cases one man's gain is another mans loss. We should see a relatively narrow strip or perhaps strips of deformation banding and where they end up will make a huge difference. Outside of that banding, totals will be light in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs will be interesting....rgem/srefs in the secs camp, nam nada....nice to have the gfs come on board...prob show a compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rgem has a 993 right off the Delmarva.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs will be interesting....rgem/srefs in the secs camp, nam nada....nice to have the gfs come on board...prob show a compromiseyou certainly don't want both usa models going nada tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just give us 2-4 inches and sustained cold keeping the landscape white for 2 consecutives weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 you certainly don't want both usa models going nada tho. If the GFS goes east we're probably in trouble, but I think its going to be west of the NAM, the NAM's evolution led me to believe it latched onto some sort of subtle front running vort energy and shunted everything east...its overall setup suggested the system should have been a bit west of where it ended up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Right up there with the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm tossing the nam...it sucks past 30 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 If you extrapolate safe to say rgem would be 5-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the GFS goes east we're probably in trouble, but I think its going to be west of the NAM, the NAM's evolution led me to believe it latched onto some sort of subtle front running vort energy and shunted everything east...its overall setup suggested the system should have been a bit west of where it ended upYou know these models flip in this range. The gfs is likely to go se at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 48 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If you extrapolate safe to say rgem would be 5-10"? Hard to say but based on the numbers that it has for places to the SW it looks like 10-20 mm at least. 15mm is about 0.60" water equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 48 hr That is beautiful, especially since the low is still bombing, the vort has a nice tilt to it. Thats a 6-12'er on the RGEM (one time please) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The GGEM had this type of crazy solution a couple of days ago and since lost it. Regardless of the outcome, props to Earthlight, Dsnow and others for preaching patience in a pattern like this. It's early and we are already seeing the wild possibilities that are out there. This may not be the one, but this is fun to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS looks noticeably worse aloft through 24 hours. Lol. Can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What's kind of funny is that this is the first threat in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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