wxman9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 be cautious, a couple members are so amplified they're seriously screwing with the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:31 PM, nzucker said: A lot of models are trying to tuck the low into the coast from 36-39 hours, which the SREF shows with the spread towards Cape May NJ. There is limited time to do so, however, as a kicker in the northern stream is arriving by 42 hours. The shortwave behind the storm should limit amplification and thus restrict totals to the 8-12" amounts, keeping this a notch below a historic storm. Probably. Although, this could be a rare event when the heaviest snowfall will dump quite quickly and we could be looking at 2"/hr. So maybe someone could be looking at 15" or more at Central LI. That is if the storm tilts a bit faster. It won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Also the 12z NAM for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:39 PM, wxman9 said: be cautious, a couple members are so amplified they're seriously screwing with the mean I wouldn't worry about that. The 21Z/03Z SREFs will correct that, but maybe slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Seems like 10-12 inches for ne nj.. nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:41 PM, earthlight said: 16 to 18 Hours of snow and the Heaviest snow looks to be overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:39 PM, wxman9 said: be cautious, a couple members are so amplified they're seriously screwing with the mean The spread is favoring a more westward track if anything. The QPF increase from 9z to 15z is quite significant with regards to how much it backed up the .5" line into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:41 PM, earthlight said: Thats a textbook image right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The overwhelming majority of guidance has ticked nw and wetter, that is a nice trend for us as we approach this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15Z SREFs Mean Plume for LGA: 14.82" of Snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z WRF NMM and ARW both show the possibility of a very shard cutoff north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lol the sref mean shows just under 15" for lga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140120&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BLM&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.50462705061271&mLON=-75.8719984375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 14" mean on the 15z SREF for EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:50 PM, user13 said: Lol the sref mean shows just under 15" for lga This is insane. This was a non-event a few days ago and this storm will be on our front door steps tomorrow over 6" for most! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 14.99" mean BLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Through hour 21 so far I see no major changes on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:48 PM, Superstorm93 said: 12z WRF NMM and ARW both show the possibility of a very shard cutoff north of the city. Where exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM a bit slower with the whole evolution of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15Z SREF...lol @ the 25" outlier. On 1/20/2014 at 7:52 PM, Superstorm93 said: 14" mean on the 15z SREF for EWR ScreenHunter_59 Jan. 20 14.51.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm surprised the Nam hasnt give us one of those ridiculous runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:59 PM, YanksFan27 said: NAM a bit slower with the whole evolution of the system. That short wave energy diving down the backside of the ridge might be trouble. We want that slow down, otherwise it'll be like what it had shown on the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:58 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Where exactly? Looks like HPN on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 8:01 PM, Superstorm93 said: Looks like HPN on north That's a pretty close call there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z steady snow hr 30 Heavy in snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hr 33 Ccb up to Edison nj-NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ccb dump at hr 35 holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sigh..its a dry/wet run lol. I love this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:31 PM, nzucker said: A lot of models are trying to tuck the low into the coast from 36-39 hours, which the SREF shows with the spread towards Cape May NJ. There is limited time to do so, however, as a kicker in the northern stream is arriving by 42 hours. The shortwave behind the storm should limit amplification and thus restrict totals to the 8-12" amounts, keeping this a notch below a historic storm. Yup. However we've always seen this being a tricky component in terms of it's speed and timing in doing so. Will be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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