January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[40/70 Benchmark]

RAP looks good even up to Lawrence. Makes me feel better. Hint of enhancement for cape ann too. Any OE up there at least spills over here a tickle or two.

 

Let it play out. You may be right. But let it play out.

I hear ya.

 

Tough day at the office.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Seems to be doing a bit better than projected so far? I could be wrong

[Damage In Tolland]

Still puzzled by this dumb comment.

Just pounding on the keyyboard as folks type

[TalcottWx]

Both the HRRR and RAP look like a very good snowfall from Hartford to Portsmouth NH. That seems like a good cutoff line.

[forkyfork]

No surprise in NJ. This is why we preach mid level low position to QPF Queens.

the banding made it to morris county so far... extrapolate that and it reaches most of CT

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE NYC
METRO...HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. RRQ OF UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDED INITIAL
LIFT...WITH FRONTOGENETIC BANDING NOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LI. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT ENE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH SNOW RATIOS OF
AT LEAST 15:1...1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
BAND.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEVELOPING LOW JUST EAST OF NORFOLK AT
ABOUT 1000 MB. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 5 MB TO THE NE MAY BE
HINTING AT A TRACK A LITTLE LEFT OF GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...EVEN WHILE
THERE WAS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MODEL QPF. MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS
LI/NYC METRO NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ITS DURATION ACROSS THE AREA
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SNOW TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 8-12 INCHES FOR
CITY...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT...WITH 4-8 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

[New Englander]

You'll get into the snow no problem.

 

Definitely seeing the beginnings of the OE contribution outside and on the radar.  Can see the bands starting to form under the main show out in the Bay and working SSW.  

Always get a little nervous with these setups but I believe you. Impressive stuff going on to the SW. Nice cold storm. 

[New Englander]

In it now, 1/4 mile vis, excellent snow growth.

Very Cool! 

[TalcottWx]

Ray~

 

HRRR 1km reflectivity

http://tinyurl.com/mxwwq8k

 

RAP

http://tinyurl.com/nymsbg7

 

Both are hours of at least mod snow interior ne ma.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE NYC

METRO...HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER

AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. RRQ OF UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDED INITIAL

LIFT...WITH FRONTOGENETIC BANDING NOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SOUTH

SHORE OF LI. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT ENE WITH THE UPPER

TROUGH STILL AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH SNOW RATIOS OF

AT LEAST 15:1...1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS

BAND.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEVELOPING LOW JUST EAST OF NORFOLK AT

ABOUT 1000 MB. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 5 MB TO THE NE MAY BE

HINTING AT A TRACK A LITTLE LEFT OF GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK WILL

NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...EVEN WHILE

THERE WAS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MODEL QPF. MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS

LI/NYC METRO NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ITS DURATION ACROSS THE AREA

REMAIN A CHALLENGE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN A

SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SNOW TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 8-12 INCHES FOR

CITY...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT...WITH 4-8 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR

NOW.

That could mean a big difference in some locals

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, the back edge of my meltdown is pulling away on RAD....VIS is clearing.

[TalcottWx]

PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE NYC

METRO...HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER

AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. RRQ OF UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDED INITIAL

LIFT...WITH FRONTOGENETIC BANDING NOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SOUTH

SHORE OF LI. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT ENE WITH THE UPPER

TROUGH STILL AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WITH SNOW RATIOS OF

AT LEAST 15:1...1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS

BAND.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEVELOPING LOW JUST EAST OF NORFOLK AT

ABOUT 1000 MB. 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 5 MB TO THE NE MAY BE

HINTING AT A TRACK A LITTLE LEFT OF GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK WILL

NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...EVEN WHILE

THERE WAS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MODEL QPF. MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS

LI/NYC METRO NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ITS DURATION ACROSS THE AREA

REMAIN A CHALLENGE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN A

SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. SNOW TOTALS ARE GENERALLY 8-12 INCHES FOR

CITY...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT...WITH 4-8 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR

NOW.

WEENIES UNITE!

[New Englander]

WEENIES UNITE!

you got my weenie attention

[ORH_wxman]

Ylou can see how the current position of the band is to the left of the qpf stripe on the models earlier. That is something that happens somewhat frequently...esp when the banding is induced by ML frontogenesis and not low level.

[weatherwiz]

Ylou can see how the current position of the band is to the left of the qpf stripe on the models earlier. That is something that happens somewhat frequently...esp when the banding is induced by ML frontogenesis and not low level.

 

Thank God...great to see some solid banding associated with mlvl and not llvl

[TalcottWx]

Looking at the regional radar on weathertap : That very impressive band was not supposed to be as far NW or as strong as it is at this stage. Not saying we are looking at a huge bust, but it is pushing NW nicely. It appears at its current rate the steadier snow may reach past BOS/PVD. This is why you listen to Scott/Will in regards in ML fronto.

 

So just to outline - RAP and HRRR both had steady snows into the interior. Comparing current radar to HRRR/RAP, band is already outperforming and further NW than modeled. Win- Win.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Always get a little nervous with these setups but I believe you. Impressive stuff going on to the SW. Nice cold storm. 

 

Notice in the last few frames in SE NY and SW CT it's not making as much progress N....it's going to start to pivot soon.

 

Meanwhile it's gone ape here between the cells of OE and the over the top stuff we're approaching 1/4 mile in snow.

[subdude]

lol     4.5" for you is my final call

 

Enjoy what we can

 I'm sticking with a 3" bomb IMBY. That way I won't feel too bad if it over performs and we get 4" or 5". lol

[BostonWX]

I would hope the rpm is wrong for SNH. Less than an inch there

[Damage In Tolland]

Ylou can see how the current position of the band is to the left of the qpf stripe on the models earlier. That is something that happens somewhat frequently...esp when the banding is induced by ML frontogenesis and not low level.

One day..they will listen to us..one day.

 

MLK had a dream

 

So do we

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Looking at the regional radar on weathertap : That very impressive band was not supposed to be as far NW or as strong as it is at this stage. Not saying we are looking at a huge bust, but it is pushing NW nicely. It appears at its current rate the steadier snow may reach past BOS/PVD. This is why you listen to Scott/Will in regards in ML fronto.

 

So just to outline - RAP and HRRR both had steady snows into the interior. Comparing current radar to HRRR/RAP, band is already outperforming and further NW than modeled. Win- Win.

 

I really don't think it's much further north than it was supposed to be located.  Certainly within the margin of error.  Even the GFS had a pretty good idea where the best lift would be in the next hour. 

[Ginx snewx]

1new Moderate to heavy dendrites, wind is picking up

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Hoping that little NW adjustment comes to fruition! Good to hear that it's not all that uncommon.

[powderfreak]

1new Moderate to heavy dendrites, wind is picking up

Nice congrats dude! Post 'em pics when you can throughout the event. Bury the dogs playground out back.

[ineedsnow]

Hope that band makes it 20 miles north of where it is now

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Even a little nw of what was thought is going to help people out. Hoping everyone gets something they like out of this

[CoastalWx]

Yeah band looks as modeled.

[N. OF PIKE]

Lil left of track would sound good to many

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting rad as moderate band popped out of nowhere over Hingham

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah band looks as modeled.

 

Pretty good overall.  I mean it was supposed to snow in all of CT and most all/all of MA.  Most of that comes from this first band that pivots. 

 

I will say I'm very impressed with the OE/first shot of WAA here.  It's pounding.