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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Nothing like a 350mb layer on the DGZ.

 

One thing I noticed for a lot of the area outside of SE portions is that the thump of omega is ABOVE the DGZ. That probably prevents insane ratios... but that deep layer of saturation in the DGZ is a good sign I think. 

 

The frontogenetical circulation is sloped northwestward so the the farther northwest you are the higher the omega thump is in the atmosphere. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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One thing I noticed for a lot of the area outside of SE portions is that the thump of omega is ABOVE the DGZ. That probably prevents insane ratios... but that deep layer of saturation in the DGZ is a good sign I think. 

 

The frontogenetical circulation is sloped northwestward so the the farther northwest you are the higher the omega thump is in the atmosphere. 

Yeah big time sloped for sure. I think CT is in the hunt for something.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I wish the NAM and SREFs came out last sometimes. They are like a Wrestlemania opening match of Nikolai Volkov against Tito Santana while what we're really waiting for is Hogan/Warrior in a few hours.

 

LOL. SREFs are useless. Not too often guidance gets worse with updates to them...but the SREFs blow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I wish the NAM and SREFs came out last sometimes. They are like a Wrestlemania opening match of Nikolai Volkov against Tito Santana while what we're really waiting for is Hogan/Warrior in a few hours.

 

 

Yeah I feel the same way...we'll all be amped up for the 00z runs ad then start to get sucked in (or deflated) by a set of guidance that is probably the least skillful of the 00z suite. At least at this time range anyway. Maybe this time tomorrow night I'd have more trust in them.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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LOL. SREFs are useless. Not too often guidance gets worse with updates to them...but the SREFs blow.

 

 

I'll give them some props for the inverted trough yesterday...they showed much higher end precip than other guidance...GFS started catching on late, but even it was not enough in the core.

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earthlight

earthlight

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They weren't always THIS bad but now I barely even both to look at them. I don't understand why NCEP can't come up with useful short range ensemble modeling. 

 

Once they changed the ETA members to ARW/NMM it was game over for reliability.

 

Although the ARW members were amped up for the event yesterday while all models showed nothing. So we can run with that. 

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dendrite

dendrite

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I'll give them some props for the inverted trough yesterday...they showed much higher end precip than other guidance...GFS started catching on late, but even it was not enough in the core.

Yeah, but when the synoptics are still in question you pretty much have to take them with a grain of salt.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I'll give them some props for the inverted trough yesterday...they showed much higher end precip than other guidance...GFS started catching on late, but even it was not enough in the core.

 

Yeah they may have a win now and then..but I have no faith in them beyond 36 hrs. It's pretty much global time until tomorrow.

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