January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

That's not even the same graph.

 

Just a slight difference.   GFS is a garbage model in terms of overdoing things.  Wee bit of a change this run.

 

I think we're still golden, just feel bad for the peeps that won't get an OE boost.

[dryslot]

I expect 5"+.

 

Should keep you out of the tub for now

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Maybe slightly tighter on the nw side but thats always gonna happen and some will always be on the outside looking in.

Stay the course, undressing begins this afternoon.

[jamesnichols1989]

GFS is fine, the QPF output is just off, I expect the SR models to do better with QPF than the GFS and EURO at this range.  We are within 12 hours of precip starting, probably around 6 or less hours still the snow starts.  Get over the models and just watch this baby unfold, we get caught up in the models too much at this range.

[weathafella]

I'm kind of bummed the 24th didn't work out but I'll take me 6+ like a man for this event.

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS has been solid this winter when it comes to sniffing out a general idea in the mid range. As far as any details close in to an event..meh

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm kind of bummed the 24th didn't work out but I'll take me 6+ like a man for this event.

Keep an eye on Saturday

[jamesnichols1989]

The GFS might have been overdone as of the 6z run, but the positively tilted trough now should swing negative as it hits the coast, and once it captures the surface low, look out, bombogenesis will be underway as the surface low slows down as the upper level energy captures the surface low, almost stalling it out for a bit.  Something to really watch closely.

[Brian5671]

guys, stop looking at globals...time for short term models, HRRR and RAP.  

[weatherwiz]

The GFS still has a decent amount of QPF and if anything would slightly cut back some across western sections...but it still continues to indicate that eastern MA, including the Cape will be the jackpot region and wouldn't be shocked to see a few isolated 18'' amounts.  The GFS has a tremendous amount of lift centered across southern CT/RI and into eastern MA for pretty much the duration of the storm...so with this, even portions of southern/southeastern CT/RI are going to get crushed too.

[moneypitmike]

Maybe slightly tighter on the nw side but thats always gonna happen and some will always be on the outside looking in.

Stay the course, undressing begins this afternoon.

 

Meh.  Give me another shawl.  I never expected anything from this one at least.

 

9.7/-5

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GFS has been solid this winter when it comes to sniffing out a general idea in the mid range. As far as any details close in to an event..meh

I think your in line for a foot, hopefully here as well.

[N. OF PIKE]

If you spoke of reality you'd have noticed that things aren't quite as amped at 12-14z as was modeled by the 6z GFS/NAM last night. Definitely flatter, there is not going to be as much N/S this run. I suspect the GFS will bump S&E vs the 6z this run...to match REALITY.

I read this and figured models showed less impressive lift and went se

[amarshall]

The GFS might have been overdone as of the 6z run, but the positively tilted trough now should swing negative as it hits the coast, and once it captures the surface low, look out, bombogenesis will be underway as the surface low slows down as the upper level energy captures the surface low, almost stalling it out for a bit.  Something to really watch closely.

 

Porn

[MarkO]

GFS a disaster for MBY. Still hoping I can get 0.5" QPF, but chances are unlikely. I'm thinking 5-7.

[weathafella]

OT but I agree with Kevin on the interesting weekend prospects. Unusual to be so cold that no matter what it's snow as a system swings through on sw winds.

[SouthCoastMA]

I think your in line for a foot, hopefully here as well.

I will happy as a pig in sh$t if the BOX map verifies. Ya, we should both do well

[Cyclone-68]

Is there any chance for thundersnow during the height of this overnite?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

One thing is for sure...if this HAD tucked inside the BM, region wide orgy .

[jamesnichols1989]

BOX has Outer Cape in the 14-18" range, can't wait to surpass the 2-3rd storm, maybe onto my 20" benchmark storm.

[TalcottWx]

Yea, if I'm just n of that fronto band, I'll be in bed early.

I think that's me and not you

[40/70 Benchmark]

Eastern MA is in line for 5-10", with potential for higher amounts over se MA and cc.

Same deal as its always been, but the more robust trend just came came to a hault.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I will happy as a pig in sh$t if the BOX map verifies. Ya, we should both do well

Haha same here, they upped for a large area last update about an hour ago, which kind of surprised me. They did that last time and the high totals didn't really reach back much further than Plymouth county. I think this system is more dynamic, and will not almost completely really on oes for big totals like last time. There may not be 2 feet like in ne mass, but overall higher totals may be more spread out

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Eastern MA is in line for 5-10", with potential for higher amounts over se MA and cc.

Same deal as its always been, but the more robust trend just came came to a hault.

I'm feeling 8" north shore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think that's me and not you

You'll be shoveling.

[Sn0waddict]

4K NAM is awesome for anbody SE of Hartford. Boston & Worcester do quite well, while Rhode Island gets pummeled.

[TalcottWx]

You'll be shoveling.

Actually I live in an apartment

But anyways, my hunch is ml band still nw of the progged jackpot area. That hasn't changed.

[CoastalWx]

All this arguing is over a couple of tenths of QPF..lol. Yeah stakes are higher with the ratios..but it's hard to read this thread. 

[TalcottWx]

I think that Box map might be spot on. Very well done.

[TalcottWx]

All this arguing is over a couple of tenths of QPF..lol. Yeah stakes are higher with the ratios..but it's hard to read this thread.

Its LOLworthy. Not much has changed at all. People need to pull their heads out of their azzes.