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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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I speak on reality not noise on models as the storm is already going lol. It's going to snow. A lot

 

If you spoke of reality you'd have noticed that things aren't quite as amped at 12-14z as was modeled by the 6z GFS/NAM last night.  Definitely flatter, there is not going to be as much N/S this run.  I suspect the GFS will bump S&E vs the 6z this run...to match REALITY.

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

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I disagree with the notion that the GFS was too far north, it will likely stay as is, as given the strength of the vort max the GFS has been better with it than the NAM.  Right now we have a 1003.6mb low over western NC mountains, and 1004.5mb over the VA Capes, this is where the low tracks to off the east coast, right over Norfolk, VA at around 1000mb or so.  Probably stronger than modeled.  This is a perfect track for Cape and Islands, I like the BOX map, seems reasonable to me, not because they forecast 14-18" for me, but because they have a more widespread area picking up 10-14" in line with the Upton NWS.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Personally I blame Forky for his jinxed comment about their being no wave interference this time.  In the end that little appendage that all models show now is robbing some moisture and elongating the lows enough to prevent this from being a bigger deal for many N&W.

 

The next time the GFS is furthest NW and the Euro is plodding from SE to NW with each run...in a progressive pattern the GFS will almost always error too aggressive inside of 48 while the Euro will be light...but closer to the truth.

 

Chalk another one up on Will's graph from yesterday inside of 48.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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I disagree with the notion that the GFS was too far north, it will likely stay as is, as given the strength of the vort max the GFS has been better with it than the NAM.  Right now we have a 1003.6mb low over western NC mountains, and 1004.5mb over the VA Capes, this is where the low tracks to off the east coast, right over Norfolk, VA at around 1000mb or so.  Probably stronger than modeled.  This is a perfect track for Cape and Islands, I like the BOX map, seems reasonable to me, not because they forecast 14-18" for me, but because they have a more widespread area picking up 10-14" in line with the Upton NWS.

 

You'll know in 5 minutes.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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I disagree with the notion that the GFS was too far north, it will likely stay as is, as given the strength of the vort max the GFS has been better with it than the NAM.  Right now we have a 1003.6mb low over western NC mountains, and 1004.5mb over the VA Capes, this is where the low tracks to off the east coast, right over Norfolk, VA at around 1000mb or so.  Probably stronger than modeled.  This is a perfect track for Cape and Islands, I like the BOX map, seems reasonable to me, not because they forecast 14-18" for me, but because they have a more widespread area picking up 10-14" in line with the Upton NWS.

 

Doubtful. 

 

Look at the 12z upper air vs the GFS.   http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/upaRAOB_500.gif

 

Too much SW to NE on the 6z for certain.  This isn't a wipeout by any means, but toss the 6z. 

 

0z Euro had a much better handle, and the 12z NAM/RGEM initialized very well.  The 6h 6z 500-etc forecast of the GFS was poor.

 

JMHO

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dryslot

dryslot

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puff, puff, pass lol

 

I'm confident we at least see some accumulation here but you will probably be enjoying filtered sunlight.

 

I was convinced of that a few days ago

 

He means that folks n of Boston will want to jump into the bathtub with plugged in toaster.

 

Only if you had any expectations of seeing modest accumulations

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

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Personally I blame Forky for his jinxed comment about their being no wave interference this time. In the end that little appendage that all models show now is robbing some moisture and elongating the lows enough to prevent this from being a bigger deal for many N&W.

The next time the GFS is furthest NW and the Euro is plodding from SE to NW with each run...in a progressive pattern the GFS will almost always error too aggressive inside of 48 while the Euro will be light...but closer to the truth.

.

I don't think we'll have to contend with any dry slot issues..based on the latest trends at 12z

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