Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

can we just get a storm that crushes the entire area? good grief

 

That rarely ever happens...   One reason why the NESDIS scale was developed; it has a high degree of factorization regarding population density.  If we looks at NESDIS events (those rated...) the upper tier events are few and far between for a reason.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

SREFs are juicy   fwiw (not much)

 

Question re this product:  Has it ever shown upper tier probability for an 8" snow fall when one actually happened... Seems it's got a stalwart running low snow total bias.  Never seen its probability above even medium before an event -- though admittedly, I don't normally use it.  Just commenting on what is posted here.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Question re this product: Has it ever shown upper tier probability for an 8" snow fall when one actually happened... Seems it's got a stalwart running low snow total bias. Never seen its probability above even medium before an event -- though admittedly, I don't normally use it. Just commenting on what is posted here.

To me it's sometimes the opposite...way too robust. But that's on lighter fare events I think. It's been a horrific model the past two winters though anyway...not sure what got into it. Some say it's the ARW members as they are always super-amped and wet. Several years ago they used to be a pretty good indicator of what was about to happen at like 36-60 hour lead time.

But to your point, it'd be interesting what it was showing for like FEB 2013 like 24 hours out. That looked like a pretty slam dunk 12+ for a big area, wonder what it had for probabilities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

Unfortunately those are very rare. I think January 2011 and Feb 2013 came pretty close, though they walloped SNE and eastern NNE, we still got a foot up here. In order to get the entire region, I'll be on the NW edge because anything that jackpots me likely sucks for a portion of the region due to mixing or rain or whatever. But I think those two storms were pretty close to getting most of us into the 12"+ range.

Aside from that, most smaller systems just don't have the reach to get everyone in New England so there's always those looking in. Getting a storm to hit all of SNE or all of NNE is an easier task though...but this pattern is an eastern snow pattern. There's a reason why Coastalwx and Jerry have been going ballz to the wallz. Seeing Scooter be one of the most optimistic in this pattern should say something, instead of tossing caution flags all over with ifs ands or buts. Those guys know this pattern gives them the best shot out of anyone in New England. They deserve it too.

if you say so, youre certainly one of the more well thought out and well spoken posters here. i guess i just have to eventually accept that i am in perhaps the worst area of sne to be a snow lover. too far west when east is favored, too far east in more wrapped up events and in swfe the warm air aloft just shoots up the valley, down sloped when there isnt a good northerly component. in the nine winters i have been in this area there have been just a handful of events where i did well and NEVER once jackpotted and there have been several busy winters. the winter of 09-10 was brutal too, look at the 27 in min here surrounded by 45 to 70 inch amts even on the cp.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

if you say so, youre certainly one of the more well thought out and well spoken posters here. i guess i just have to eventually accept that i am in perhaps the worst area of sne to be a snow lover. too far west when east is favored, too far east in more wrapped up events and in swfe the warm air aloft just shoots up the valley, down sloped when there isnt a good northerly component. in the nine winters i have been in this area there have been just a handful of events where i did well and NEVER once jackpotted and there have been several busy winters. the winter of 09-10 was brutal too, look at the 27 in min here surrounded by 45 to 70 inch amts even on the cp.

Well, you are on the valley floor at it's widest part so don't be too surprised by not jackpotting but there are worse snow locales in SNE than Springfield considering the long term average there is over 40".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...