January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[moneypitmike]

Thank goodness I am just a tick south of rte 2

 

LOL.  Me, ftl.

 

New NAM gives nothing out here.  Maybe 1-3".  Alas.

 

At least it's warming up.

 

7.4/-3

[weathafella]

Snowing hard in Newark, no snow philly, snowing bwi, not dca

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Enjoy this one, should be a nice wallop.

 

Thanks..may have some dryslot issues after round 1.  Hoping that we can keep a favorable (NNE) wind direction here to keep the low level OES flying.  It looks really good this time on Euro/NAM so hoping for no last minute whammies.  Best OE signature I've seen in awhile for here, blows away the early Jan event.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

LOL.  Me, ftl.

 

New NAM gives nothing out here.  Maybe 1-3".  Alas.

 

At least it's warming up.

 

7.4/-3

 

we are going to have radar envy tonight.  lol

[CarverWX]

Fingers crossed but this area is looking good. I would love to see a foot!

[mahk_webstah]

i'll take the under on 0.40" w.e.

 

i'll take the under on 0.40" w.e.

if ash gets .4 I'll be a monkey's uncle.

I've accepted the situation for what it is.

Congrats messenger jerry ryan kevin gnx and capecod, ma

[Hailstoned]

This is a classic, it's basically 12/11/60 without an NAO which essentially doubled the totals.

12/12/60 as I remember it!

[Colonel Badger]

WSW up for Londonderry now.

[mahk_webstah]

WSW up for Londonderry now.

ooops better start lookin for my monkey.

and you are 40 miles south of me.

but I am thinking I might to hang in concord overnight, a little closer to the action than my home base.

[millpondwx]

WSW up for Londonderry now.

Colonel, The 12z RPM model says a dusting for you!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM and 4km nam croak coastal areas.  Nice uptick in banding and QPF this run.  Hope to see similar in the RGEM.

 

I'll be on the edge of the dryslot tonight, jackpot should be between Scott and I but probably closer to me.  If I get lucky and this parks over me great, but looks right now like it'll be up rte 3 a few exits and north.

[Zeus]

Good morning you princes of complain, you kings of New England.

 

My company's HR person was at my desk when I got in this morning, asking for weather info. I really don't know when I became our in-house met but they ask me every snowstorm now. So what do we feel? Early closure to avoid the evening commute? Late opening tomorrow? Both?

[Colonel Badger]

Colonel, The 12z RPM model says a dusting for you!

 

Urgh... yeah.. just seen it. Went SE.

 

Interesting that BOX raises WSW as RPM goes SE and gives us 1-2".

[SnowMan]

Urgh... yeah.. just seen it. Went SE.

 

Interesting that BOX raises WSW as RPM goes SE and gives us 1-2".

Not really...it's the RPM...

[weathafella]

Really nice banding signal not far from BOS tonight along east coastal area.

[moneypitmike]

we are going to have radar envy tonight.  lol

 

Virga city, Chris.

 

8/-4

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Virga city, Chris.

 

8/-4

 

Box just upped us to 4-6".  They've done pretty well out here this year so we shall see.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Box just upped us to 4-6".  They've done pretty well out here this year so we shall see.

 

NWS Albany a little more bearish for this area though...

[ackwaves]

Starting to come together around Norfork...http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=cbbv2

[SouthCoastMA]

NAM and 4km nam croak coastal areas. Nice uptick in banding and QPF this run. Hope to see similar in the RGEM.

I'll be on the edge of the dryslot tonight, jackpot should be between Scott and I but probably closer to me. If I get lucky and this parks over me great, but looks right now like it'll be up rte 3 a few exits and north.

Do you think I'm in a decent area or too far sw? (5 mi NE of EWB)

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Do you think I'm in a decent area or too far sw? (5 mi NE of EWB)

 

 

Yes, but we need to watch the dryslot.  You are probably too far west though for the better OE stuff...although if it really rages you could be on the tail end of some bands for awhile that start out up towards Coastalwx.

[dryslot]

Virga city, Chris.

 

8/-4

 

Cirrus blunt

[ORH_wxman]

I think BOS and metro-west BOS suburbs may get hit pretty hard later tonight with a great ML fronto band.

[OceanStWx]

Bad logic.

 

I'm familiar with the tool they used, since we have it as well. Basically you have 4 slider bars: one for max temp you allow accumulation at, then three more at different temperature cut offs. Each of those has an allowable range for ratios. I forget the exact temps used right now, but let's say at and below 31 degrees to above 22 degrees ratios can range from 13:1 to 6:1. Below 22 and above 14 they can range from 12:1 to 20:1. And below 14 they can range from 20:1 to some max ratio.

 

So there is an element of user control with the tool, but in the end it is based on surface temp which is the bad logic. We admittedly have very little available when it comes to using forecast ratios to make snowfall forecasts. There is the tool mentioned above, there is another that blankets one ratio for the entire forecast area, and just one tool that uses model forecast ratios to come up with snowfall. Unfortunately that tool seems to over-predict ratios.

[CoastalWx]

I think BOS and metro-west BOS suburbs may get hit pretty hard later tonight with a great ML fronto band.

 

Yep, I agree. GFS and NAM has signaled that since last night. I thought maybe CT into ORH area this morning...but it seems to have shifted east a bit. RAP has it too.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good morning you princes of complain, you kings of New England.

 

My company's HR person was at my desk when I got in this morning, asking for weather info. I really don't know when I became our in-house met but they ask me every snowstorm now. So what do we feel? Early closure to avoid the evening commute? Late opening tomorrow? Both?

I think the evening will be fine (you are in Boston iirc?)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wow box went in on the higher totals. Expanded 10-14 to all if Bristol and Plymouth counties and most of those island. That's a pretty large swath of upped totals.

[SouthCoastMA]

Yes, but we need to watch the dryslot. You are probably too far west though for the better OE stuff...although if it really rages you could be on the tail end of some bands for awhile that start out up towards Coastalwx.

From the looks of everything this morning, our area stands a far better chance of reaching a foot compared to 1/3. Lets hope the OE stuff makes up for any dry slot issues

[CoastalWx]

I also think cstl SE MA and esp CC may get hit hard near 12z tomorrow as a CCB tries to get going.

[moneypitmike]

Box just upped us to 4-6".  They've done pretty well out here this year so we shall see.

 

Take the under.