January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[WeatherX]

Fun for all..except two-thirds of NE.  

The maps I posted suggest otherwise. Pretty good coverage for most of SNE it would appear....

[TheSnowman]

At the airport and hating it for one main reason which you guys already know. Freaking BLIZZARD WARNINGS are up for God Sakes.

Everyone tasked about how sub 10*F Full on Snowstorms are Super Rare and we get another one and now I miss it because the damned gig could only be Tuesday so I had to change me flight to 36 hours earlier.

Picture is partly cut out cause this website can't handle straight up phone pictures as they are somehow too big. So I put it in an app and fiddled with it.

[moneypitmike]

Gfs looks good. Crush for se ct to cold miser and damn good to 128 even orh def warning verbatim

 

Congrats to many on the board.

 

6z NAM/GFS fairly close with regards to lift. Fun for all.

 

1pm.gif

7pm.gif

1am.gif

 

Yawn.  Yawn again.

 

7.2/-3

[dendrite]

The maps I posted suggest otherwise. Pretty good coverage for most of SNE it would appear....

Well yeah...1/3 of New England. It's all good though. Share the wealth.

[CoastalWx]

is it possible that death band can pivot into this area too, some of the srefs seem to indicate that?

 

Eh, it's close. If it ticks east then probably not. I think you will do ok.

[mahk_webstah]

as of 2:30am Paul Kocin has me in moderate for 4+ and slight for 8+.  I will hold onto that.  Like those moderate probs for 12+ for sema!

[CoastalWx]

I actually would not be shock at a tick east today, but won't change much.

[SnowMan]

I actually would not be shock at a tick east today, but won't change much.

Based on the VVs maps you posted it looks like SNH is just outside any good banding

[Heisy]

I actually would not be shock at a tick east today, but won't change much.

 

That tends to happen a lot before storms, not really sure why the models do that, but yes, the 6z RGEM was discouraging, I think the american models tick east at 12z. 

[CoastalWx]

Based on the VVs maps you posted it looks like SNH is just outside any good banding

 

I didn't post any maps. I think you guys are ok...it's tough to nail meso banding, but from 3z to 9z you guys could do well. GFS says yes...I'm just not sure if it is correct at the moment.

[moneypitmike]

Interesting ratio statement in BOX's AFD.  They went 16:1 for areas with temps 22* or higher, and 18:1 for areas with lower temps.

 

High for today is progged as 12*, down to 1* tonight.  I guess I'm in the second range.  I'm guessing 4".  A little more than what I had been anticipating, ftw.

 

7.0/-2

[HoarfrostHubb]

Happy for now. Take what I can get. Still thinking 4-6" in this area. Maybe ratios will bump that a bit

SE peeps, enjoy

[CoastalWx]

There is some disagreement for sure. After seeing everything as I sit down here....my guess is GFS is still too robust, but we will see.

[CoastalWx]

Interesting ratio statement in BOX's AFD.  They went 16:1 for areas with temps 22* or higher, and 18:1 for areas with lower temps.

 

High for today is progged as 12*, down to 1* tonight.  I guess I'm in the second range.  I'm guessing 4".  A little more than what I had been anticipating, ftw.

 

7.0/-2

 

Bad logic.

[SnowMan]

I didn't post any maps. I think you guys are ok...it's tough to nail meso banding, but from 3z to 9z you guys could do well. GFS says yes...I'm just not sure if it is correct at the moment.

Whoops that was weatherX

[moneypitmike]

as of 2:30am Paul Kocin has me in moderate for 4+ and slight for 8+.  I will hold onto that.  Like those moderate probs for 12+ for sema!

 

Is there a link to that?

 

That tends to happen a lot before storms, not really sure why the models do that, but yes, the 6z RGEM was discouraging, I think the american models tick east at 12z. 

 

Well, that would just suck.

[moneypitmike]

There is some disagreement for sure. After seeing everything as I sit down here....my guess is GFS is still too robust, but we will see.

 

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine. 

 

Bad logic.

 

I assume you mean logic on their part? ( I'm just reporting what they said).  Given the discussions from the other cooler system that was pointing to much more than just temp on ratios, it does sound pretty cut-and-dry.

[MaineJayhawk]

This one's for the coastal peeps up here ... enjoy, SNE

 

[weathafella]

Snow cover followed by deep and (for this season) long lasting cold, Nice snow pattern in the short and long range, chuck em.

[mahk_webstah]

Is there a link to that?

 

 

Well, that would just suck.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

[WeatherX]

Well yeah...1/3 of New England. It's all good though. Share the wealth.

Agreed. It's not like this is the last one....plenty more days of deepness incoming.

[Lava Rock]

This one's for the coastal peeps up here ... enjoy, SNE

 

meh. 1-2" and flakes for Saturday. I wish the mountains would get something. They deserve it.

[Modfan]

I like were I am for 8-10, I can see the hills of Foster-Glocester over to East Killingly/Sterling close to a foot, maybe a lollie 13?

[moneypitmike]

This one's for the coastal peeps up here ... enjoy, SNE

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

Boy--they should just have picture of the "soup nazi" in the big black area.  "NO SNOW FOR YOU!!".  

[CoastalWx]

Nothing really has changed overall from what I see. Little nuances are more of a nowcast deal.

 

MPM, the srfc temp logic for ratios isn't the best...that is what I meant.

[Damage In Tolland]

Some signs that it wants to snow around the region much of the day tomorrow..neg tilters can do that..just linger snows

[CoastalWx]

Some signs that it wants to snow around the region much of the day tomorrow..neg tilters can do that..just linger snows

 

Probably more for out east..but I don't buy all day for most of the area.

[moneypitmike]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

 

Thanks--I thought you were referencing something outside hpc.

 

He 'cusps' me on 40/50% for 4", then 30% for 6; 20% for 8.

[Damage In Tolland]

Probably more for out east..but I don't buy all day for most of the area.

Well yeah the Cape and your area will snow all day..but if you sniff around..the models show lingering high RH much of tomorrow over the entire region..not anything heavy..but still snowing..we'll see..just something to note

[CoastalWx]

Well yeah the Cape and your area will snow all day..but if you sniff around..the models show lingering high RH much of tomorrow over the entire region..not anything heavy..but still snowing..we'll see..just something to note

Dim sun and flurriies for hours.