January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, I encountered a great deal of resistance this afternoon, but I think that we can definitively proclaim that the west trend has ceased.

 

Now we correct eastward...how much??

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

tick here, tick there.....whatever. nothing significant has changed. gfs has been very consistent. you cant get like 12 identical runs in a row now.

Agreed. Minor SE ticks canceled out by slower movement and more potent energy.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

That wasn't a huge shift...one of those "expected" shifts.

 

It's a big shift from the 18z if you're on the fringes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Stronger energy but a tad more digging SE. Slower though as well. 

Same trend as NAM.

 

I don't like the Miller A appeal that this is taking on....in that its going to town too far south.

Good mid atl storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Well, I encountered a great deal of resistance this afternoon, but I think that we can definitively proclaim that the west trend has ceased.

 

Now we correct eastward...how much??

 

 

I doubt it goes much east...I think its starting to hone in now.

 

Someone in E MA/RI is going to get hit hard by banding...you might get in on it too.

[CoastalWx]

GFS evens the playing field for most. If the solution is right...the Mid levels argue for BDL to ORH to get hit pretty good for a time, while the Cape dryslots a bit, but then the CCB near 12z smokes them. I don't think that is unrealistic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agreed. Minor SE ticks canceled out by slower movement and more potent energy.

You want the most rapid rates of deepening to occur near our latitude, though.

[weathafella]

It won't make much difference in sensible wx inside an ORH-BDL line.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Well, I encountered a great deal of resistance this afternoon, but I think that we can definitively proclaim that the west trend has ceased.

 

Now we correct eastward...how much??

 

We wait to see how strong this is off the DE/NJ coast because you as well as anyone know the big coastals seem to come in NW of modeling.

[N. OF PIKE]

Gfs seems pretty close to 18z

Gfs banding doesnt look that good for u or ne mass and even bos

Its def better for ORH , as u can tell from will's post

Banding is insane for jersey for 6hrs tommorrow , 1-3/hr rates there

[40/70 Benchmark]

I doubt it goes much east...I think its starting to hone in now.

 

Someone in E MA/RI is going to get hit hard by banding...you might get in on it too.

I agree, that is what I said this afternoon.

 

I'm hoping to get the "Dendirite band"....

[40/70 Benchmark]

We wait to see how strong this is off the DE/NJ coast because you as well as anyone know the big coastals seem to come in NW of modeling.

 

 

Gfs banding doesnt look that good for u or ne mass and even bos

Its def better for ORH , as u can tell from will's post

Banding is insane for jersey for 6hrs tommorrow , 1-3/hr rates there

Its not all about track.....this is taking on a bit of a Boxing day type appeal to me.

 

Its starting to skunk by the time the banding gets ne of ORH.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

You want the most rapid rates of deepening to occur near our latitude, though.

That's true, but overall I don't see much reason to panic, we aren't seeing any massive shifts or removal of QPF, we're just seeing some minor adjustments. Still looks to be a solid storm.

[N. OF PIKE]

GFS evens the playing field for most. If the solution is right...the Mid levels argue for BDL to ORH to get hit pretty good for a time, while the Cape dryslots a bit, but then the CCB near 12z smokes them. I don't think that is unrealistic.

and you to n shore are in between suckin tail pipe, ill pass on the gfs

It absolutely smokes earthlight and gang tmrw pm, they are a LOCK to see a foot plus in spots where that insane lift is on nearly all models in nj.

[SnowMan]

It won't make much difference in sensible wx inside an ORH-BDL line.

Well being on the fringes here make every tick SE important.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The 0z GFS was as we all expected.  The 18z was messed up. 0z looks better with a nicely formed CCB that smokes at least part of CC.

 

There's nothing wrong with it but there's certainly no NW trend tonight, every model is a bit SE of earlier runs so far.  The Euro should come NW some and that way we've got almost perfect consensus.

 

Nice.

[N. OF PIKE]

Its not all about track.....this is taking on a bit of a Boxing day type appeal to me.

Its starting to skunk by the time the banding gets ne of ORH.

Correct

Gfs looks good for rev

[CoastalWx]

Gfs banding doesnt look that good for u or ne mass and even bos

Its def better for ORH , as u can tell from will's post

Banding is insane for jersey for 6hrs tommorrow , 1-3/hr rates there

 

It looks fine for NE MA verbatim and then shifts east. It's a good mid level track of H7 and H5 which is what to look for. That is a potent storm for BWI. Everything maximizes there at first. This may turn into a storm where QPF queens become surprised at what they receive thanks to mid level banding. Of course of the GFS is east..so is everything else.

[ORH_wxman]

What you are probably going to see initially late tomorrow afternoon is the snow shield will have bands oriented ENE/WSW as the whole thing slowly lifts north...and then all of the sudden the march north will almost come to a total halt and the bands will start rotating in a fashion where they become almost NNE to SSW...tilting more vertical on the map.

[CoastalWx]

and you to n shore are in between suckin tail pipe, ill pass on the gfs

It absolutely smokes earthlight and gang tmrw pm, they are a LOCK to see a foot plus in spots where that insane lift is on nearly all models in nj.

 

I think you are taking it a little too verbatim. I don't argue with a foot...but the locations of all these specific features aren't set.

 

Anyways good luck all. Night.

[SnowMan]

I agree, that is what I said this afternoon.

I'm hoping to get the "Dendirite band"....

My hope was that would set up up here lol

[Ginx snewx]

It looks fine for NE MA verbatim and then shifts east. It's a good mid level track of H7 and H5 which is what to look for. That is a potent storm for BWI. Everything maximizes there at first. This may turn into a storm where QPF queens become surprised at what they receive thanks to mid level banding. Of course of the GFS is east..so is everything else.

Ryan mentioned 06, been seeing a QPF spike on a bunch of runs that leads me to believe a weenie JP for NYC SW CT WLI

[Whineminster]

Looks like this area is just on the fringe....seems to be the common theme this year

[Bostonseminole]

i'm still not sure what is wrong with the GFS? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

qpf peeps should see minimal differences in printouts from todays gfs runs.

 

side note, is our friend from Nova Scotia awake? big big hit up there.

[radarman]

Pinpointing mesobands is like calling bottoms... But that said the SREFs were eye-opening for this area.

 

Agree Will, I expect the sudden halt as the system runs up against the brick wall and lifts out, with the n-s running bands.  I've been likening the later effects of this to a sou'easter, just displaced east of where it would normally be for us to call it that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

i'm still not sure what is wrong with the GFS? 

 

nothing...peeps on the nw fringe worrying. i understand that, someone always will be on the outside looking in. such is life of a grown up ween.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

What you are probably going to see initially late tomorrow afternoon is the snow shield will have bands oriented ENE/WSW as the whole thing slowly lifts north...and then all of the sudden the march north will almost come to a total halt and the bands will start rotating in a fashion where they become almost NNE to SSW...tilting more vertical on the map.

 

Yep and wherever the northern wall is...the bands will pile into it as the radar slowly shows the returns orienting E W to N/S and eventually NW to SE as the low pulls away.

[N. OF PIKE]

Ryan mentioned 06, been seeing a QPF spike on a bunch of runs that leads me to believe a weenie JP for NYC SW CT WLI

Extend that back Sw to Ne MD, And then we agree

[HIPPYVALLEY]

What you are probably going to see initially late tomorrow afternoon is the snow shield will have bands oriented ENE/WSW as the whole thing slowly lifts north...and then all of the sudden the march north will almost come to a total halt and the bands will start rotating in a fashion where they become almost NNE to SSW...tilting more vertical on the map.

 

I know we are on the fringes up here for the main event but maybe some extended steady light snow over the NW areas as the snow moves North?