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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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Yes.  Looks like a more convoluted development and you explained why well.  GFS sticks out now as the lone model with such pronounced development at 18z. 

 

8-12 on the coast seems like a good bet right now, with potentially more. 

 

Outside of weenie wishcasting, I think that has been the through line since this took a big turn towards significant SNE storm on yesterday's models.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I thought it looked a bit better than its 12z run. Heights were higher out ahead of it too. You can make an argument that the elongation and lack of a good curl to the s/w allows a more elongated srfc low and hence less of a CCB and more of a broad area of lift with embedded banding if you know what I mean. 

 

 

The vortmax dug SE and then sort of pinches off before it can hook to the left up the coast on a nice tight turn...so it sort of takes a wide turn. This run was actually better for places like DC/PHL and LI with the initial deep vortmax....but it got worse for us in SNE. Its not a massive shift, and who know exactly how it will play out, but verbatim I didn't really like the way it pinched off the whole upper flow "feed" into our area.

 

If it doesn't take a wide turn, then we'd get hammered really hard...because the energy itself looks to be trending stronger. So it will be interesting to track.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Outside of weenie wishcasting, I think that has been the through line since this took a big turn towards significant SNE storm on yesterday's models.

 

If something like the 12z GFS verified I think 10-15 or so would be pretty widespread in coastal EMA.   With these solutions that bobble the s/w and have an elongated low I worry about winds not being as ideal for as long on the OE front and even an hour or two cut off of the fluff stuff....that can be the difference of 5 or 6"

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The vortmax dug SE and then sort of pinches off before it can hook to the left up the coast on a nice tight turn...so it sort of takes a wide turn. This run was actually better for places like DC/PHL and LI with the initial deep vortmax....but it got worse for us in SNE. Its not a massive shift, and who know exactly how it will play out, but verbatim I didn't really like the way it pinched off the whole upper flow "feed" into our area.

 

If it doesn't take a wide turn, then we'd get hammered really hard...because the energy itself looks to be trending stronger. So it will be interesting to track.

 

Yeah I agree, I just thought it hung out the mid level stuff at H7 a bit better with the stronger energy. Usually the heights pumped up a bit out ahead of it argue a little closer track...but my guess is a 18z GFS/Euro compromise to some extent. It might be noise anyways...the difference in QPF seemed small. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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If something like the 12z GFS verified I think 10-15 or so would be pretty widespread in coastal EMA.   With these solutions that bobble the s/w and have an elongated low I worry about winds not being as ideal for as long on the OE front and even an hour or two cut off of the fluff stuff....that can be the difference of 5 or 6"

 

Your area always is disrupted from the Cape by OES. It's better from GHG on north. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Yeah I agree, I just thought it hung out the mid level stuff at H7 a bit better with the stronger energy. Usually the heights pumped up a bit out ahead of it argue a little closer track...but my guess is a 18z GFS/Euro compromise to some extent. It might be noise anyways...the difference in QPF seemed small. 

 

 

Yeah the QPF was slightly reduced in the central stripe...but it actually bumped the NW edge of the 0.2" line NW.

 

 

My guess is if the energy trends stronger, it will probably end up better for us in reality. We'll see what the GFS does...I don't think it can really go anymore amped than 18z. I'd expect a little correction back SE...but as long as it isn't a big jump, I think BOS-PVD are looking good...and make to ORH-BDL are borderline warning...esp with the banding signal.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Your area always is disrupted from the Cape by OES. It's better from GHG on north. 

 

We do okay with tracks outside the BM.  I need a wind between 0 and 30.... that's the catch here.  Further offshore is a little better for me in MBY, a little further NW it moves closer and closer to you.

 

Fella want to bet a dinner on the GFS?

 

Amwx model center keeps crashing FWIW.

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weathafella

weathafella

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We do okay with tracks outside the BM.  I need a wind between 0 and 30.... that's the catch here.  Further offshore is a little better for me in MBY, a little further NW it moves closer and closer to you.

 

Fella want to bet a dinner on the GFS?

No bets till we're square...lol.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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Your area always is disrupted from the Cape by OES. It's better from GHG on north. 

 

 

We do okay with tracks outside the BM.  I need a wind between 0 and 30.... that's the catch here.  Further offshore is a little better for me in MBY, a little further NW it moves closer and closer to you.

 

Fella want to bet a dinner on the GFS?

 

Amwx model center keeps crashing FWIW.

 

Interesting,  because when I lived in Cambridge (97-07) I had a good friend who lived in Plymouth and when a big coastal storm was coming we would always debate if the better CC skiing would be at the Fells in Winchester or at Myles Standish SF in Plymouth. We were often surprised with our reports and how different the accumulations were.

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