January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[Bostonseminole]

It doesn't have to do with the NAM, just something to watch...it happens frequently in events. No reason to panic.

 

thanks for that, was just about to go running down the streets buck naked with a cig.

[moneypitmike]

The SREF members -- tossable as some are -- give me the impression that it may set up with a nice steady band out around 495 and then better stuff SE MA but in between a bit risky. Just a possibility based on some of the features shown.

 

I'd rather not toss some of them. 

 

When does the RGEM come out?  I hear my bed calling for me.

 

16.2/5

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Dews are mostly single digits now across S Vt / W MA fwiw.  Cold dry air.  18/6 here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, any updated thoughts??

[codfishsnowman]

peaks and valleys of emotion for those of us on the nw side of things, my gut says not to expect more than a couple inches but the weenie in me hopes to not to be able to find my car wed daybreak

[NorEastermass128]

My thoughts haven't changed......5-10".

 

Its just fun to make suicide jokes.

That's a good range.  We'd be able to get 5" with ~.3" QPF.  

 

Guessing we get about a half inch liquid, so 7.5" seems like a good estimate based on 15:1 ratios.  We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's a good range.  We'd be able to get 5" with ~.3" QPF.  

 

Guessing we get about a half inch liquid, so 7.5" seems like a good estimate based on 15:1 ratios.  We'll see.

Agree.

[moneypitmike]

peaks and valleys of emotion for those of us on the nw side of things, my gut says not to expect more than a couple inches but the weenie in me hopes to not to be able to find my car wed daybreak

 

I'm pretty sure you'll be between those two scenarios.

 

15.9/5

[ROOSTA]

A funny read.

Going from 45-50°F Friday with nothing but squat in the future. To a surprise over the weekend, then to tracking. No complaints.

Mid Winter (as someone says) Deep, deep Arctic cold to follow. As to future the pattern looks to stay locked in and reloads next week.

 

QPF in winter is like Td in Summer. It's all about how it looks and feels.

 

  

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'd rather not toss some of them.

When does the RGEM come out? I hear my bed calling for me.

16.2/5

A) props for the avatar

coffee calling

C) this ain't our storm.

Prob a 4-6" type of thing for you and me and Chris

The was supposed to be a B. )

[HIPPYVALLEY]

[CoastalWx]

Looks likr the RGEM won't be too far from 00z at least through forecast hour 24 valid 00z Wednesday. We'll see what the next frame does.

[N. OF PIKE]

When it comes to models does anyone really really trust the gfs, i dont . I mean even w the euro being unwell at 72 hrs i know i would rather take euro tonite and (maybe someone can post about its mid level features overnite )

I'm think area wide 5-10 from past 128 ,sw to 495/pike sw to Manchester/HFD area to nyc and se.

Im not sold on more

Except probably a 7-12 spot for e pym county GHG to PYM and I'd say 3-6 from 495 n to psm to quabbin to Norfolk ct.

[8611Blizz]

Sorry for the OT but it's blowing strong out there right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

John, any updated thoughts??

 

I'm trying to get my head wrapped around this NAM solution ... huh.   

 

Thing is, it was stronger with the v-max cutting through the TV then off the MA, turning the corner clearly some 70 to 100 miles W of the 18z solution, but similar to last night's 00z run, it rather unexpectedly just vanishes significant v-max potency in the wrong area of the trough -- where it should be most intense.  

 

The sfc response in this run is actually a tick of longitude E of the 18z run, while expanding the circumvella of .10" slightly W.  Not a lot of this run makes much sense to me beyond 30 hours or so -- kind of hearkens to Scott's intimation re needing 24 hours before relevance kicks in.. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks likr the RGEM won't be too far from 00z at least through forecast hour 24 valid 00z Wednesday. We'll see what the next frame does.

 

Looks a little slower than 12z.

[moneypitmike]

A) props for the avatar

coffee calling

C) this ain't our storm.

Prob a 4-6" type of thing for you and me and Chris

The was supposed to be a B. )

 

I'd put you on the higher end of that range.  Chris and I on the other hand......

 

OT, but while it's taking the cooler air an awfully long time to move east of the river, once it does, the temps do drop steadily.

 

15.6/4

[CoastalWx]

Looks a little slower than 12z.

 

QPF was a bit less, but the system was slower than the 12z run. Still snowing after 12z Wednesday.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sorry for the OT but it's blowing strong out there right now.

Yup. House has rattled a bit

[N. OF PIKE]

QPF was a bit less, but the system was slower than the 12z run. Still snowing after 12z Wednesday.

Mid levels weaker as it passes us?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

RGEM doesn't look all that much different than the Euro or NAM.  Low is passing a few ticks outside of the BM for sure.

 

Less moisture...good OE signal which Ray loves.  It's cut back.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS is going to come back into the fold IMO and maybe the ARW/NMM members on the SREF's will cut back to 35" next run.

 

Eh...if I was issuing a forecast I'd be cutting back to 8-12"...maybe some jackpot lolli's around here over the foot mark in good banding. I was too aggressive earlier

[CoastalWx]

Mid levels weaker as it passes us?

 

I thought they looked a bit better. I'm not going to concern myself over a low scored metric like QPF. I don't see anything unreasonable with the ranges in snowfall that have been thrown out.  The one thing this may not have is a good CCB as the low develops well south...but other factors will sort of suffice and take over. 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM shifted SE again...not by a lot but its there. Its slower but further SE. The shortwave doesn't phase as well with the vortex in SE Canada...the better solutiuons like the 18z GFS phase that a bit which allows the main vortmax to pass right up over Cape Cod...but the NAM/RGEM solution doesn't allow this.

 

So this would likely keep the warning snows from the BOS=PVD corridor and southeast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

RGEM doesn't look all that much different than the Euro or NAM.  Low is passing a few ticks outside of the BM for sure.

 

Less moisture...good OE signal which Ray loves.  It's cut back.

 

There will be a lot of cold dry air aloft so a cut in fantasy qpf numbers is a given.  I don't think anyone inside of I-495 has much to worry about, plowable snow incoming. Those hoping for epic are always setting themselves up for potential failure but a lot of weenies are going to see a nice SNE snow storm and some will get surprise lollies. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

There will be a lot of cold dry air aloft so a cut in fantasy qpf numbers is a given.  I don't think anyone inside of I-495 has much to worry about, plowable snow incoming. Those hoping for epic are always setting themselves up for potential failure but a lot of weenies are going to see a nice SNE snow storm and some will get surprise lollies. 

 

There's going to be a crush zone like the last one.  OE is a big contributor with this one.  Somewhere between Scott and I is going to be over a foot, maybe well over.  Of course if models bumble SE it will change immediately as the flow becomes less favorable.

NAM, 4km and RGEM would pummel the areas Box has outlined with the blizzard watch.

[codfishsnowman]

never too late for a se trend lol

[N. OF PIKE]

The more i look at this Outside of just Sne , i think NJ may take the cake over to maybe sw Long Island w best intense banding and then se mass/(e pym)

[CoastalWx]

RGEM shifted SE again...not by a lot but its there. Its slower but further SE. The shortwave doesn't phase as well with the vortex in SE Canada...the better solutiuons like the 18z GFS phase that a bit which allows the main vortmax to pass right up over Cape Cod...but the NAM/RGEM solution doesn't allow this.

 

So this would likely keep the warning snows from the BOS=PVD corridor and southeast.

 

I thought it looked a bit better than its 12z run. Heights were higher out ahead of it too. You can make an argument that the elongation and lack of a good curl to the s/w allows a more elongated srfc low and hence less of a CCB and more of a broad area of lift with embedded banding if you know what I mean. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

RGEM shifted SE again...not by a lot but its there. Its slower but further SE. The shortwave doesn't phase as well with the vortex in SE Canada...the better solutiuons like the 18z GFS phase that a bit which allows the main vortmax to pass right up over Cape Cod...but the NAM/RGEM solution doesn't allow this.

 

So this would likely keep the warning snows from the BOS=PVD corridor and southeast.

 

Yes.  Looks like a more convoluted development and you explained why well.  GFS sticks out now as the lone model with such pronounced development at 18z. 

 

8-12 on the coast seems like a good bet right now, with potentially more.