January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[ackwaves]

If the 10-14" amounts bust being too high, its not because of being too warm on the Outer Cape, I refuse to believe we get above 25F tomorrow and Wednesday.  SO if the EURO is correct, which I don't think it is as the 00z will probably adjust to the northwest some more, which means it right near or on the benchmark.

It may warm slightly aloft reducing the ratios down to say, 8 or 9 to1. Keyword.. "may".

[Patrick-02540]

I never thought me or anyone for that matter would say this, and it actually makes me feel queasy, but the GFS this winter has been a fairly good model overall. I think we have to use it now , and certainly trust it much more than the Euro/ Euro ens which quite frankly have sucked . Maybe the GFS handles a progressive pattern better, but whatever the reason is.. It's been pretty good

I agree Kev.  We seem to keep returning verification to the GFS this winter.  And even if it doesn't give us feet and feet for weeks and weeks, there were some nice inches and inches, over days and days.

[Damage In Tolland]

I agree Kev. We seem to keep returning verification to the GFS this winter. And even if it doesn't give us feet and feet for weeks and weeks, there were some nice inches and inches, over days and days.

In past years each Euro run was the most important run of our lives. Now, it's just a model to look at but not base or change any forecasts over

[mreaves]

GFS is a crush job., my first thoughts are 12-16 from south of Bos down to near HYA , 8-12 outer Cape, 8- 14 Bos to New Bedford west to New Haven , 12-16 SCoast to NYC , 6-10 IJD to NW CT to ORH , 4-8 Berks RT 2 Mass border SNH , coastal Maine, 3-6 outside that box tapering to cirrus NNE

Could have just left us out of it instead of rubbing it in

[Patrick-02540]

In past years each Euro run was the most important run of our lives. Now, it's just a model to look at but not base or change any forecasts over

Yes, last year it was the Verbum Dei.  This year, the GFS triumphs.  NAM (always) and EURO (this year) are a bit "video sed non credo."

[MarkO]

In past years each Euro run was the most important run of our lives. Now, it's just a model to look at but not base or change any forecasts over

Could any of it have to do with the GFS's improved computing (increased teraflops or whatever they were calling it?).

[Allsnow]

Could any of it have to do with the GFS's improved computing (increased teraflops or whatever they were calling it?).

 

I think when they updated the EURO they mess with something, leading the op to have its problems 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yes, last year it was the Verbum Dei. This year, the GFS triumphs. NAM (always) and EURO (this year) are a bit "video sed non credo."

The gfs has overdone a majority of systems this year.

[N. OF PIKE]

Even if deform goes nw , scooter may still score big and wind up playing naked twister w cf (just west of it)

18z btv wrf has 30f over James's fanny (and mid-outer cape) for several hrs tomm nite , higher than the 12z run

[jamesnichols1989]

NMM and ARW could determine whether or not QPF could max out at any given location.  Right now I would base my forecast off of the ARW and NMM QPF outputs over any other model right now given that they are the Hi resolution models and best  equipped to handle QPF outputs on a widespread scale. 

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro is still dominating the GFS on verification scores, even in our little section of the U.S., tt leads by a solid margin on QPF scores in the past 30 days.

 

 

But we've certianly seen it struggle on a few events.

 

[powderfreak]

NMM and ARW could determine whether or not QPF could max out at any given location.  Right now I would base my forecast off of the ARW and NMM QPF outputs over any other model right now given that they are the Hi resolution models and best  equipped to handle QPF outputs on a widespread scale. 

 

This doesn't make sense to me.  Widespread scale would be more like GFS or global models.  Meso-scale or small scale localized stuff is where the meso models come in. 

 

But to be honest, I wouldn't base anything off the NMM and ARW. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Even if deform goes nw , scooter may still score big and wind up playing naked twister w cf (just west of it)

18z btv wrf has 30 over James's fanny for several hrs tomm nite , higher than the 12z run

30 what?

[N. OF PIKE]

30 what?

30f

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The Euro is still dominating the GFS on verification scores, even in our little section of the U.S., tt leads by a solid margin on QPF scores in the past 30 days.

But we've certianly seen it struggle on a few events.

Yup x 2. Most of the issues are outside of 48. I don't think the euro was wildly off at 12z. I could see it bumping up another 10-15% tonight. I am more gangbusters due to a good OE signal.

[powderfreak]

The Euro is still dominating the GFS on verification scores, even in our little section of the U.S., tt leads by a solid margin on QPF scores in the past 30 days.

 

 

But we've certianly seen it struggle on a few events.

 

 

It just doesn't over-react like the other models have done.  It moves slowly, the others go big and then come back a bit.  I think that helps it, not being prone to wild swings.  But sometimes it probably hinders it too.  Is this one of those times?

 

Its funny, this is the opposite of the situation for the Feb 2013 event, with the EURO going big and the GFS out to the SE.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well, the Euro was sniffing out something on this date last week (22-23), but lost it a couple of times

Not sure if it is even the same system.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think those stats can be doctored and misleading

[jamesnichols1989]

Was just watching a Henry Margusity morning video and absolutely had to stop the video because it was awful, no idea on the trends for a larger winter storm, even when the morning model suites showed a bigger potential.  Wow accuweather has gotten awful, with the exception of Bernie Rayno, I think he is a good met.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I still think shifts could be pretty high stakes for a lot of folks. Hopefully we at least hold serve

[Cold Miser]

30f

30f or 30f

[Ginx snewx]

Could have just left us out of it instead of rubbing it in

not meant to but rather convey a typical Arctic noreaster sharp cutoff, my bad. Your turn is coming.

[dendrite]

I think those stats can be doctored and misleading

lol...yeah, they were edited in Excel.

 

Interesting that the SREFs take the lead on the big QPF events.

[kmcfarland99]

Good luck, this is how I figure it may play out:

7-12 inch potential from PWM through se NH into e/c MA, most of RI and e CT, w LI into NYC

7-12 for PWM? Is there a really a chance we see this much?

[Ginx snewx]

EURO qpf better in warm sector QPF maybe? It certainly has been late to the party and left with Rays man beast last time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

EURO qpf better in warm sector QPF maybe? It certainly has been late to the party and left with Rays man beast last time.

Good drifting incoming for you again

Scoots should have some nice pics

[Clinch Leatherwood]

EURO qpf better in warm sector QPF maybe? It certainly has been late to the party and left with Rays man beast last time.

Remember the gfs is just as awful at being overdone and unlike the euro which finally gets it right the last few runs the gfs holds on until the bitter end

[CoastalWx]

Euro was too low this weekend too with the inv trough. I've lost some trust in it during the 72 hr window, but I still weigh it heavily as well based on performance. It rarely screws up badly inside 48 hrs.

[mreaves]

not meant to but rather convey a typical Arctic noreaster sharp cutoff, my bad. Your turn is coming.

I know, jk. Actually, the last couple of days have featured some snow around here, I've had about 4.5", not PF Mansfield type stuff but nice none the less. Enjoy what you have coming. A couple of you guys have been spot on about stuff that pops up quickly. Looks like winter is back.

[moneypitmike]

No one should complain if this verifies 

 

I will.

 

Congrats most SNE,ers.

 

1-2", lollies to 3" out here.  Wake me up when it's over.

 

I'll enjoy the arrival of the cooler air instead.

 

23.3/14