January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[weathafella]

What do you think for mby?

I think BOX map is good. A nice 8-10 right now with perhaps a bit more. The question is now more mesoscale nuances that we won't know until tomorrow. The GFS actuallys argues banding from HFD to ORH because it's so far west with the mid level lows, but temps aloft are cool enough to allow deformation and snow growth at 850mb.

Thanks! Season trundling along lol.

[DavisStraight]

Have to give props to Jerry for sniffing this one out

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Meh, I think the 18z GFS will prove to be the most "NW" run of the models.

 

I think it's probably too far NW with the heavier stuff but we'll see how that plays out later.

[RobbieL241]

Good call by NECN.

[CoastalWx]

There is a MAUL like feature in some of the soundings near 9z-12z.

[weathafella]

Wow robust MAV snow number for BOS! 8+1.

[jamesnichols1989]

How does Cape warm up to only 8-10" according to Joe Joyce?  I think 10-14" may be conservative when it comes to the Cape and Islands, especially for areas around Bourne, MA.  But even Harwich, MA will get in the best snows.  I think Nantucket might be warmer, but not the Outer Cape.

[mattb65]

Sorry, been too busy at work to follow this but what is the timing for light and heavy stuff looking like for the region?

[weathafella]

Wow robust MAV snow number for BOS! 8+1.

ORH 8+1

BDL 8+0

BED 8+1

LWM 6+1

CON 6+1

[mattb65]

Sorry, been too busy at work to follow this but what is the timing for light and heavy stuff looking like for the region?

to answer my own question, looks like evening time at Boston.. Like 8pm when things start?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sorry, been too busy at work to follow this but what is the timing for light and heavy stuff looking like for the region?

I dunno... ive asked but they too busy debating snowfall maps.

[forkyfork]

It's easy to be more optimistic when your own backyard is involved.

i like coastal storms

[weathafella]

to answer my own question, looks like evening time at Boston.. Like 8pm when things start?

Earlier ....maybe 4-5.

[dendrite]

GEFS a bit NW of the op with QPF. SLP is pretty much lockstep.

[ursa99]

Pict Your Met

[CoastalWx]

GEFS a bit NW of the op with QPF. SLP is pretty much lockstep.

 

Yeah looks good even for you. I think amounts from HFD-ORH and perhaps srn NH might be a little higher than some have. I could see some good banding there from 00z-06z or so.

[jamesnichols1989]

Scott, I seriously think that any where from Southern suburbs of BOS down through Plymouth into the Cape and Islands could see upwards of 18" of snow with this storm, maybe even 20"+ amounts given H7 low closing off, H5 vort maximum going negative tilt over region slowing down the progress of the movement of the surface low and the rapid intensification, maybe even bombogenesis of the surface low near the benchmark, I think banding and OES contribution could bring these 20"+ amounts to the South Shore of MA.

[KartAnimal29]

New rule, weathefella opens all new threads

 

[SnowMan]

Yeah looks good even for you. I think amounts from HFD-ORH and perhaps srn NH might be a little higher than some have. I could see some good banding there from 00z-06z or so.

Talk dirty...

[N. OF PIKE]

Scott, I seriously think that any where from Southern suburbs of BOS down through Plymouth into the Cape and Islands could see upwards of 18" of snow with this storm, maybe even 20"+ amounts given H7 low closing off, H5 vort maximum going negative tilt over region slowing down the progress of the movement of the surface low and the rapid intensification, maybe even bombogenesis of the surface low near the benchmark, I think banding and OES contribution could bring these 20"+ amounts to the South Shore of MA.

I swear blizz has a twin livin on cape

[jamesnichols1989]

I swear blizz has a twin livin on cape

 

At least I state why I think such a thing is possible.

[CT Rain]

Euro ensemble mean pretty much dead on with op run for QPF. About 0.4" from 128 back to HVN. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

How does Cape warm up to only 8-10" according to Joe Joyce?  I think 10-14" may be conservative when it comes to the Cape and Islands, especially for areas around Bourne, MA.  But even Harwich, MA will get in the best snows.  I think Nantucket might be warmer, but not the Outer Cape.

You can't totally discount the Euro.  It's underdone but to what degree?  I'm betting the 18z GFS is too far NW and will adjust at 0z...if not look out.  But until the 11pm shift I think those forecasts are fine.

 

It's a year of more disorganized fast moving systems.  The GFS being the way it is....sticks out a little at 18z. 

 

That would put you and I in the .5 to maybe .9" of QPF tops.   That reasonably supports almost every map posted for the tv guys IMO.  (with slight upward adjustments to the Euro and a larger downward of the GFS)

[jamesnichols1989]

You can't totally discount the Euro.  It's underdone but to what degree?  I'm betting the 18z GFS is too far NW and will adjust at 0z...if not look out.  But until the 11pm shift I think those forecasts are fine.

 

It's a year of more disorganized fast moving systems.  The GFS being the way it is....sticks out a little at 18z. 

 

That would put you and I in the .5 to maybe .9" of QPF tops.   That reasonably supports almost every map posted for the tv guys IMO.  (with slight upward adjustments to the Euro and a larger downward of the GFS)

 

If the 10-14" amounts bust being too high, its not because of being too warm on the Outer Cape, I refuse to believe we get above 25F tomorrow and Wednesday.  SO if the EURO is correct, which I don't think it is as the 00z will probably adjust to the northwest some more, which means it right near or on the benchmark.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

You kind of have to wonder if the gfs would have started a shift back southeast with the 18z run, but it even came a little more northwest. It looks like a lot of on air mets from what was posted are at least keeping some sort of weight with the euro. We shall see, but the gfs has been pretty steady

[HoarfrostHubb]

Was skiing

Nice trends/updates

We don't toss

[Damage In Tolland]

I never thought me or anyone for that matter would say this, and it actually makes me feel queasy, but the GFS this winter has been a fairly good model overall. I think we have to use it now , and certainly trust it much more than the Euro/ Euro ens which quite frankly have sucked . Maybe the GFS handles a progressive pattern better, but whatever the reason is.. It's been pretty good

[powderfreak]

The final outcome will be interesting with this one... all season the GFS has been furthest NW with these systems and then usually ticks back SE at some point (trust me, I know being on the NW side of a few events and what looked great at times on the GFS only to have the rug pulled out to some degree).  Now maybe this is the one time the fast progressive flow allows the more amped model to be correct, but I bet reality is somewhere between the ECM/GFS. 

 

To be honest they aren't *that* different in the grand scheme of things, but it matters a lot for a good bulk of the posters here.  Usually that nail biting is up here in the NW side of New England, not down there, but this will be interesting to see play out.  Normally no one cares if the eastern Adirondacks or northern Champlain Valley gets 3-4" or 8", so we don't pay too much attention to it on the forum, but with some high stakes in subtle shifts for some SNE posters, it should be interesting to watch play out.  It really doesn't matter for the folks in southern CT, RI, and E/SE MA... they get clocked pretty good in any solution at this time. 

[Roger Smith]

Good luck, this is how I figure it may play out:

 

12-18 inch potential from just north of BOS to east of PVD to s.e. RI and in e/c portions of LI.

 

7-12 inch potential from PWM through se NH into e/c MA, most of RI and e CT, w LI into NYC

 

4-7 inch potential most of w/c MA and w CT except where locally higher in Berkshires

 

Would not be surprised to find isolated 20 inch amounts in sea effect banding south of BOS.

[N. OF PIKE]

At some point you would think the models are done amping this thing and im not sure if there really is any more room than 18z gfs, this isnt a southern stream vort w no blocking high and a se ridge.

I would bet 0z gfs holds the course or ticks a hair se from 18z and dr no ticks a tad nw.

I think 12z gfs may be closest track or a split between 12z/18z gfs . Then the issue becomes when do mid level lows close/strengthen is it sooner and tucked just off ACY , just s of Long Island , or to late/never

Waiting on some consistency to where the ml track closing off occurs. Is there a model known to handle mid level features best?