January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[TalcottWx]

Kev to will to ray deform sounds in line with what i thought @ 12z

[Zeus]

Too late... Head on pillow, sucking my thumb.

I'll get the towel.

 

For real, tho, dat 18z is serving up hope.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

AKA noise.

I think you're in a great spot, man.

Finally.

Looks nw of me for the best banding right now unless I weigh the euro the most.

[dendrite]

Slightly NW but based on the 3 hr maps looks to have spread out the moisture but decreased the maxes.

H7 low was definitely a little north.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

GFS has handled northern stream dominated systems pretty well this winter... As long as it held serve 18 Z that's a good sign.

[RobbieL241]

GFS is a SECS for all essentially.  

[N. OF PIKE]

Slightly NW but based on the 3 hr maps looks to have spread out the moisture but decreased the maxes.

7H lift looked good for ct over ORH /495

Seem'd to pinch off just s of LI then goes to MTK/Block island to messengers house

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Obviously still time for a wiggle either way. 25-50 miles either way, could have an impact on a lot of posters in this forum. Should be a fun one

[RobbieL241]

No one should complain if this verifies 

[Chrisrotary12]

Skies almost completely clear ahead of squall-pretty cool.

Extremely cool. Like a wall of gray.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think 18z gfs continues to show great banding for S amd SE CT

Duration of best lift doesnt seem to get much further ENE then like ORH Littelton nw corner of 495

Which may be reading too much in but i have seen lift tail off on last few runs of gfs/nam once ene/ne of Orh (i.e /n shore)

Kinda like when mid level low first closes off and "pivots" best lift is centered still w/sw/s of bos metro a tad

[Cold Miser]

I think 18z gfs continues to show great banding for S amd SE CT

Approx. starting time?

Apologize if it's been asked.

[CoastalWx]

I think 18z gfs continues to show great banding for S amd SE CT

 

Yeah it does.

[Ginx snewx]

GFS is a crush job., my first thoughts are 12-16 from south of Bos down to near HYA , 8-12 outer Cape, 8- 14 Bos to New Bedford west to New Haven , 12-16 SCoast to NYC , 6-10 IJD to NW CT to ORH , 4-8 Berks RT 2 Mass border SNH , coastal Maine, 3-6 outside that box tapering to cirrus NNE

[weathafella]

I think 18z gfs continues to show great banding for S amd SE CT

 

Yeah it does.

What do you think for mby?

[Patfan1987]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/# think the wrong map was posted earlier. Here is the right one.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What's up with the timing...I thought it was an overnight thru Wed am deal with heaviest snow but nws says tom aftn to eve with the heaviest stuff.

Because I'm not effing driving home from work during rush hour tomorrow in 3hr traffic where i have to pull over again and watch the snow pile up from a rest area.

[ineedsnow]

18z gfs is a crush job

[subdude]

Wow I like this NW trend was feeling left out this morning. Now we all get to play.

[CoastalWx]

What do you think for mby?

I think BOX map is good. A nice 8-10 right now with perhaps a bit more. The question is now more mesoscale nuances that we won't know until tomorrow. The GFS actuallys argues banding from HFD to ORH because it's so far west with the mid level lows, but temps aloft are cool enough to allow deformation and snow growth at 850mb.

[forkyfork]

i really like that the s/w is compact with no garbage vort maxes in front of it

[N. OF PIKE]

I think BOX map is good. A nice 8-10 right now with perhaps a bit more. The question is now more mesoscale nuances that we won't know until tomorrow. The GFS actuallys argues banding from HFD to ORH because it's so far west with the mid level lows, but temps aloft are cool enough to allow deformation and snow growth at 850mb.

May hate to say it but that 18z gfs pivots close to kev's fanny w deform band (verbatim)

(I think, lol)

[Clinch Leatherwood]

i really like that the s/w is compact with no garbage vort maxes in front of it

You're talking so positive today Kevin is horribly confused and wondering if he's on the right forum.

Both of us being positive on the same storm...Elvis is found living in Minneapolis Tuesday?

[Damage In Tolland]

May hate so say it but that 18z gfs pivots close to kev's fanny w deform band (verbatim)

May hate say so?

[CoastalWx]

May hate so say it but that 18z gfs pivots close to kev's fanny w deform band (verbatim)

(I think, lol)

 

Well you also want to look lower because 700mb is very cold. 850-700 is key.

[N. OF PIKE]

Well you also want to look lower because 700mb is very cold. 850-700 is key.

Thanks

[dendrite]

You're talking so positive today Kevin is horribly confused and wondering if he's on the right forum.

Both of us being positive on the same storm...Elvis is found living in Minneapolis Tuesday?

It's easy to be more optimistic when your own backyard is involved.

[dendrite]

This squall is nuts. Whiteout

Obs thread please.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

May hate to say it but that 18z gfs pivots close to kev's fanny w deform band (verbatim)

(I think, lol)

 

GFS...remember it usually has a few runs too far NW.

 

It's easy to be more optimistic when your own backyard is involved.

 

Well technically I was in the line of fire last time too.  Second blizzard oriented watch or warning in two storms but I think this one has a better chance of delivering true blue 1+.  Although....the later GFS runs are creeping dangerously close to pushing that further NW.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks about how we'd draw it up

 

 

Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceNECN28m

I believe temps will be warmer on the Cape w/ a heavier snow..10-15/1 Ratio...should keep snow in 8-10" range pic.twitter.com/m9vLyRi9rq