January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[jamesnichols1989]

I wouldn't worry about a southeast trend unless the 00z model runs start to show it, then I would get worrisome, but not because of the 18z runs should I base a forecast off of in my opinion.

[CoastalWx]

Not much of a difference.

[N. OF PIKE]

Im not a fan of the lift being alligned sw/ne until se ct then more ene over to pym instead of bos/n shore

[Patrick-02540]

We may have to start thinking 1-2 foot amounts for some

For days and days, too!

[Bostonseminole]

Not much of a difference.

[weatherMA]

Let's ignore the NAM and take a look at the sref probs..lol

 

[ORH_wxman]

Interestingly on the plume viewer you can deselect members, NMM is more bullish than ARW

 

 

Guess NMM didn't want to be left out this time. Still, the plumes are pretty useless to me these days. Just not reliable enough.

[Zeus]

Not much of a difference.

 

Actually I don't even hate it.

[wxman9]

For days and days, too!

You're very pretty and I like your cleavage, could I take you to dinner at Applebee's?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

doesnt look as nice at 7h... fwiw.

[jamesnichols1989]

18z NAM op looks like the 12z NMM model.

[weatherMA]

The SREF member that gives 43" at ORH gives 29" in 6 hours from 12z Wednesday to 18z Wednesday.   

 

If nothing else they are good for a laugh.

[jamesnichols1989]

What are the SREF plumes for CHH or HYA?

[joey2002]

Let's ignore the NAM and take a look at the sref probs..lol

 

 

hahaha KTOL jackpot for 12+... run in Kev's basement? 

[Patrick-02540]

You're very pretty and I like your cleavage, could I take you to dinner at Applebee's?

If you think I'm very pretty and you like my cleavage, why waste the hour at Applebees?

[N. OF PIKE]

doesnt look as nice at 7h... fwiw.

True , Not closed s of Long Island or over us fwiw

[wxman9]

If you think I'm very pretty and you like my cleavage, why waste the hour at Applebees?

Now that's funny, even better than the SREFs.

[forkyfork]

noise from an unreliable model that's run four times a day

[N. OF PIKE]

Lmao

[CoastalWx]

You guys are micro-analyzing a bit. It's not a big difference and falls under the "NAM NOISE" IMHO. Wait until the other guidance comes in. I'll wait on the RGEM.

[jamesnichols1989]

I wouldn't pay much attention to the 18z runs, they are off runs fwiw.

[Damage In Tolland]

hahaha KTOL jackpot for 12+... run in Kev's basement?

Fronto banding

[N. OF PIKE]

noise from an unreliable model that's run four times a day

Forky you still thinking ~PHL-NYC-BOS for banding

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looking at 12z nam was similar never gets mid levels going. Gfs much better in mid levels at 12z so lets see if it holds serve now.

[forkyfork]

You guys are micro-analyzing a bit. It's not a big difference and falls under the "NAM NOISE" IMHO. Wait until the other guidance comes in. I'll wait on the RGEM.

the nam has been terrible this winter

[SnowMan]

I wouldn't pay much attention to the 18z runs, they are off runs fwiw.

This has been discussed many times...it doesn't matter...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You guys are micro-analyzing a bit. It's not a big difference and falls under the "NAM NOISE" IMHO. Wait until the other guidance comes in. I'll wait on the RGEM.

When mets do it, they just stating what model shows. Weenies do it, we are micro analyzing lol.

Just stating model obs and learning from you pros...just enjoying the ride, nothing more.

[Sn0waddict]

Upton bumps amounts to 8-10 for coastal CT, 10-14 near groton

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

[Bostonseminole]

This has been discussed many times...it doesn't matter...

 

comes up 1000 times.. lol

[Clinch Leatherwood]

the nam has been terrible this winter

Have not looked at the 18z nam. Have not looked at the 12z nam. I never look at the srefs. I don't feel like I'm at a disadvantage