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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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I remember back on the 3rd when you said something similar and everyone weenie bunned you

The 1/3 storm was longer duration, i think this will see heavier bands during height but i dont think it is around enough to be talking about 18-24" inch totals. Maybe lolli's near 15" for someone between jersey to sne.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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The 1/3 storm was longer duration, i think this will see heavier bands during height but i dont think it is around enough to be talking about 18-24" inch totals. Maybe lolli's near 15" for someone between jersey to sne.

My computer is packed away for school as I return today. Hearing about sg and deform banding leads me to believe there is POTENTIAL for some heavy amounts like those mentioned. We'll see.
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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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Localized...right along MA shoreline in that storm.

I think that's def possible in this one too...but like 90% of the region won't get those types of totals unless this comes NW more.

I remember the NAM banding page having pretty much zilch previous to that one. Very oes dependent with that crappy sg outside of the enhancement at the shore. Seems like a different story this time for the interior with a closed deepening low the wealth should be more spread out. I think ray might be sitting in a great spot.
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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
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Interesting about the ARW SREF members.

with the 9z runs it knocks 25% off the mean total snow at kcon if I exclude the ARW's

At least in the Plume viewer: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php

it allows you to exclude model groups

For KBDR, the mean went down from 13.26 to 13.00 when the ARW models are removed, not bad at all.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I remember the NAM banding page having pretty much zilch previous to that one. Very oes dependent with that crappy sg outside of the enhancement at the shore. Seems like a different story this time for the interior with a closed deepening low the wealth should be more spread out. I think ray might be sitting in a great spot.

 

 

If this takes one more little tick NW and deepens a tad, then we'd prob see some widespread 8-12"+ amounts...that banding sig is really good. But its no guarantee yet it gets NW of about BOS-PVD with the really good stuff. We'll see how things progress the next 6-12 hours.

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Zeus

Zeus

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If this takes one more little tick NW and deepens a tad, then we'd prob see some widespread 8-12"+ amounts...that banding sig is really good. But its no guarantee yet it gets NW of about BOS-PVD with the really good stuff. We'll see how things progress the next 6-12 hours.

I'm not saying the 18z NAM is the most important run of all of our lives...

 

But, isn't it?

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Zeus

Zeus

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The other thing too... when you get good "snow growth" not only to dendrites accumulate very well they're also produced very efficiently in the clouds. So it's a 2-fer. 

 

I really enjoyed the aggregates we saw on Saturday. Anyone wanna go in with me on a double order of those?

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
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ruNNaWayIcEberG, on 20 Jan 2014 - 2:01 PM, said:snapback.png

Snow removal guy texts me and said, "my weather guy told me this is a minor, sorry but I dont remove 1-3" of snow, where are you getting your information from?"

OT but it does give us more feedback that the general public and even some "weather guys" are lagging.

I was talking about the snow while I was waiting for an x-ray today at the hospital with the people in the waiting room and got the same reaction. Then the weather channel comes on and says 20% chance of snow for Southbridge tomorrow accumulations less than 1 inch :axe:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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NAM is definitely east a bit but not bad.

 

Meh... the NAM sucks anyway. 

 

 

Yeah its still a hit...esp eastern areas...but NAM is probably the last model to use to latch onto a distinct trend. Though at some point the NW trend will stop. Hopefully this doesn't end up signaing it. I'd like one more bounce at 00z tonight.

 

 

18z RGEM will be interesting.

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