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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I just studied those GFS operational fields ... I tell you what, if that low jumps on the interior side of the jet max and taps into the left entrance/exit region of the negative tilt than it will track 100 miles closer and we got a bona fide limit lead time blizzard all the way back to interior zones, too.  

 

As is, it may likely approach near blizzard over SE zones where moderate to heavy S is ongoing and strong sub-geo wind response to impressive deepening rates nearing the BM takes place with temps crashing through the teens.  That will lift and pulverize aggregates and lowering visibility substantially.  

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toller65

toller65

Posted
Posted

I just studied those GFS operational fields ... I tell you what, if that low jumps on the interior side of the jet max and taps into the left entrance/exit region of the negative tilt than it will track 100 miles closer and we got a bona fide limit lead time blizzard all the way back to interior zones, too.  

 

As is, it may likely approach near blizzard over SE zones where moderate to heavy S is ongoing and strong sub-geo wind response to impressive deepening rates nearing the BM takes place with temps crashing through the teens.  That will lift and pulverize aggregates and lowering visibility substantially.  

keep talkin' dirty Tip

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

What Jerry was saying earlier and Dendrite mentioned this morning about the fronts moving in slower.  What is the reason for this, is it a trend that will continue, and how is it affecting this storm tomorrow?

 

Could this help trigger a left leaping interior jet max thingy?

 

From BOX:  1 PM UPDATE...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO

TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR LATEST TRENDS. STILL THINK SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS WITH
THE INITIAL ONE STILL STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL NH/VT AND THE
SECOND MORE POTENT FRONT STILL IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The slower fropa today is making this happen for us.

 

Mm, I think it has more to do with small jet components aloft that were insufficiently being initialized prior to entering the denser sounding grid; now being incorporated, there is more momentum in the mid levels to conserve when the wind max is forced to turn the corner along the western periphery of the Atlantic height wall.  

 

Again, the GFS is impressive looking aloft with that negative tilt out around hour 48 ... yet it's sfc reflection is still choosing the right entrance/exit regions ... ie, still not potent enough to "capture the low" in the form of jumping across the wind max and plugging into the left dynamics -- should that happen (and it is not impossible given that we are still actually embedded in a trend toward amplitude that has not yet ceased...) than it torsionally spins up we got a bit different type of a ball game in store.  

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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I AM LEAVING FOR LA TOMORROW FOR A WEEK!!!! In the Morning!!!!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH THIS WINTER FREAKING Bleeping SUCKS!!

don't you have a sore throat or something?  or like your flight will be preemptively cancelled?  Or some distant relative died (God forbid)?  Come on, get creative and realize what is really important in life!

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Mm, I think it has more to do with small jet components aloft that were insufficiently being initialized prior to entering the denser sounding grid; now being incorporated, there is more momentum in the mid levels now to conserve when the wind max is forced to turn the corner along the western periphery of the Atlantic height wall.  

 

Again, the GFS is impressive looking aloft with that negative tilt out around hour 48 ... yet it's sfc reflection is still choosing the right entrance/exit regions ... ie, still not potent enough to "capture the low" in the form of jumping across the wind max and plugging to the left dynamics -- should that happen (and it is not impossible given that we are still actually embedded in a trend toward amplitude that has not yet ceased...) than it torsionally spins up we got a bit different type of a ball game in store.  

is that what happened on boxing day?

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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Pickles is just loading up with stress

Im as cool as the other side of the pillow

I was just statin that dc is torching right now and more joking about front (but it was for dc anyway)

The key now is the banding and where that sets up.....there is gonna be hvy subsidence to the nw of those high VV's wether it will be over Bos, or Ray or KASH i dunno but there will be sharp cut off just nw of banding.

Also some in mid atlantic are talking about a cpl hr stall perhaps east of S NJ .

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MarkO

MarkO

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Mm, I think it has more to do with small jet components aloft that were insufficiently being initialized prior to entering the denser sounding grid; now being incorporated, there is more momentum in the mid levels to conserve when the wind max is forced to turn the corner along the western periphery of the Atlantic height wall.  

 

Again, the GFS is impressive looking aloft with that negative tilt out around hour 48 ... yet it's sfc reflection is still choosing the right entrance/exit regions ... ie, still not potent enough to "capture the low" in the form of jumping across the wind max and plugging into the left dynamics -- should that happen (and it is not impossible given that we are still actually embedded in a trend toward amplitude that has not yet ceased...) than it torsionally spins up we got a bit different type of a ball game in store.  

 

I think I get what you are saying. Any support from the GFS ensambles?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

For the first time all winter this can be enjoyed to the fullest. No torches, no mild ups, no cutters. three days later lurking in the bushes ready to reach out and grab our ankles,,,,.nothing but deep deep winter and snowpack building and growing for weeks and weeks.

 

Snows and snows..weeks and weeks...months and months

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

is that what happened on boxing day?

 

Haah, hm, can't remember specifically ... I'll bop by the NCEP library site (the one with the DeJavu charts), but Will or Scott might recall off the top of their heads.  I don't think so, but I'm less the sure at the moment.  

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amarshall

amarshall

Posted
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For the first time all winter this can be enjoyed to the fullest. No torches, no mild ups, no cutters. three days later lurking in the bushes ready to reach out and grab our ankles,,,,.nothing but deep deep winter and snowpack building and growing for weeks and weeks.

 

Snows and snows..weeks and weeks...months and months

 

They asked me what I was laughing about in a quiet office

 

Oh just weenies.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Haah, hm, can't remember specifically ... I'll bop by the NCEP library site (the one with the DeJavu charts), but Will or Scott might recall off the top of their heads.  I don't think so, but I'm less the sure at the moment.  

because that one really tucked in close off Jersey and screwed us up my way (well 11", but that was a screwjee in that storm)

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think I get what you are saying. Any support from the GFS ensambles?

 

But also... Jerry's not "wrong" per se, it certainly helps to keep the boundary tucked closer to the coast.   I just mean that the front slowing down isn't entirely the reason why the models are amping this... reason then given...

 

Ensembles?  Not really ... they pretty much have come into line on the same idea as the operational (save for minor details), keep this a potent negative tilted open wave.  

 

I would go with a moderate impact that might be augmented by wind chills getting nasty... more SE, but keep in mind that there is lower probability of this ticking NW just a tad, which would obviously provide for bigger implications.  Until that trend for amping and closer passage stops, more NW cannot be ruled out.

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butterfish55

butterfish55

Posted
Posted

Just heard Burbank do a live forecast on WBZ. It's crazy how nonchalant he was in talking about the storm, even after acknowledging the latest models. Talked much more about the cold coming in after the snow.

Put that up against the tone of the board right now and it's no wonder the public doesn't have any idea it's going to snow tomorrow night.

Sorry for the OT. Love reading all the analysis, can't wait to see what happens.

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