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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

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Box should never have gone 1-3 in the large urban centers after yesterday and last nights guidance. I'm sorry but their mission is getting compromised potentially with the lack of attention to a potentially dangerous period effecting millions of people, At the very least, put out statements NOW!

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bobbutts

bobbutts

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I am not a fan of forecasters starting with low accumulations and increasing them as the event comes closer.

There seems to be some bias where it's much better to bust low vs. high.  Guys like JB get lots of criticism when they bust high, and people seem to defend or ignore the low busts.  I'm not sure it has so much to do with the GP as it does from other mets, a highly critical group with plenty of hypocrites mixed in.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Box should never have gone 1-3 in the large urban centers after yesterday and last nights guidance. I'm sorry but their mission is getting compromised potentially with the lack of attention to a potentially dangerous period effecting millions of people, At the very least, put out statements NOW!

Maybe they affixed numbers to the forecast too early is a better argument imo.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Having some trouble posting images...

Quincy (who posts on here sometimes) has a great table he puts together showing model output in a tabular way...

 

But I can't get it to do a regular attachment...

 

Meh..maps are the easiest and best way to convey ideas/forecasts..none of this probabilty nonsense that folks can't understand or follow

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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Box should never have gone 1-3 in the large urban centers after yesterday and last nights guidance. I'm sorry but their mission is getting compromised potentially with the lack of attention to a potentially dangerous period effecting millions of people, At the very least, put out statements NOW!

Yup, no prob w waiting for 12z full suite , but dont commit to low so early .

Seems critical thought for some on this is difficult. Not ray but maybe the weenie wanking map guy

I would like to see poll of where public gets their weather info / storm accum info from. Radio guys/ tv mets/wx phone apps

Bottom line is this looks somewhat dangerous to be out in for cape and pym county after dark tommorrow. But word will be out by 4pm/5pm so people will adjust .

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
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Having some trouble posting images...

Quincy (who posts on here sometimes) has a great table he puts together showing model output in a tabular way...

 

But I can't get it to do a regular attachment...

 

I'd guess either the image is too big or it's a format the board doesn't recognize.  Try to convert it to jpg and repost or upload elsewhere and url link it.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Agreed. I ended up with about 8.5" here from the 1/2-3 storm. Hoping to beat that number.

 

Impact will be significantly greater in SE MA for the majority vs last time in terms of raw snow.  Better SG, better OE, more consolidated system.  We will need to see how this evolves and the Euro still has to be weighed heavily at 12z today because most of the time our guidance is overdone.

 

That said I think a lot of real totals are easily beat in SE New England this time.  Whether Scott does and those few areas that got heavy more isolated bands..who knows but I'm confident this one is a hydrant burier vs the 15" one last time ;)

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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It's really a tough job, I don't envy it. It wasn't unreasonable to think this may have corrected and gone back southeast, which I suppose could still happen.

As was mentioned above, maybe numbers shouldn't have been out to the forecast at the time. Either way it's almost lose lose, so can't really fault either way.

I do think, that with how close we are and how the Wednesday morning commute especially could be downright dangerous, and this storm happening in the middle of the work week, that maybe the flags and numbers should be hoisted later this afternoon.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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Messenger you realize alot of populated area had 10 inches or more in 1/3 storm right? Including cc.

So the cf is further se this storm and you won't be in isolated screwgie hole but population centers were hit hard on 1/3 and temps /wind chills were brutal

I do envy ur spot a bit right now i wish this could be slowed more

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

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WSW will be up later today, people will survive.. no big deal.

NWS could still be right.  NW-most models could cave later today.  However, if they're correct, there could be commuting chaos by mid afternoon tomorrow.  First day back after a long holiday weekend usually means more cars on the road compared to a usual Tuesday.

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bboughton

bboughton

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Box should never have gone 1-3 in the large urban centers after yesterday and last nights guidance. I'm sorry but their mission is getting compromised potentially with the lack of attention to a potentially dangerous period effecting millions of people, At the very least, put out statements NOW!

 

They did put out a notice that they were upping the totals N and W on social media.

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weathafella

weathafella

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NWS could still be right.  NW-most models could cave later today.  However, if they're correct, there could be commuting chaos by mid afternoon tomorrow.  First day back after a long holiday weekend usually means more cars on the road compared to a usual Tuesday.

Not the point. You don't get these trends on every model and then 24 hours out poof.

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