Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,585
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Right, but they can not take that chance.

Can't risk the los of credibility that bouncing from a 1-3" forecast, to a 6-10", back to a 2-4" forecast would entail.

You put out some sort of WSW up at least this am. I would assume they have WSWatches flying as of 7am when people would be awake. I dont watch them so i have no idea but not doing that would make zero sense to me. If they threw out and "commit to the continuity" of a 1-3 so early that would seem bizarre w this being up in air.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
leesun

leesun

Posted
Posted

Right, but they can not take that chance.

 

Can't risk the los of credibility that bouncing from a 1-3" forecast, to a 6-10", back to a 2-4" forecast would entail.

Their credibility is just as bad if they are forecasting 1-2" today and we get 6-10" tomorrow

Link to comment
Share on other sites
codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

I agree a solid 15:1 or 20:1 ratios, that means to one inch of liquid 15-20" of snow is possible. Cape Cod, MA has seen only several 20"+ snowstorms in the past 20 years, a 24"(Feb 1999) snowstorm and a 35"(Jan 2005) snowstorm.

has ONLY seen several 20 inch snowstorms in the past 20 years!!?!!.....that isnt good?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

They (NWS) have a little egg on their face from Friday Saturday, so I could see them being a bit more aggressive in their wording

Recalls last year tv mets went too big w a storm and looked bad (when some businesses closed) and little fell and then were ALL GUN SHY on the march firehose to the point of it being blatantly obvious and one of worst i have ever seen.

I recall that they were lower on forecasts than what had already fallen in firehose event. I dont know the politics within news stations and anything said too "mets" via producers after any "forecast screwups where 6-12+ is forecast, and businesses close and only 1-3 falls" but i assume their is tremendous blowback from businesses that lose money and close over nada and this caused mets to be way more gun shy on March firehose event. It was as obvious as it gets. I know this is sorta OT and i apologize for that , anyone remember what tv mets went biggest earliest on march firehose event. I recall here that Phil was first to Publicly "buy a ticket".

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

Their credibility is just as bad if they are forecasting 1-2" today and we get 6-10" tomorrow

 

We're talking a matter of a few hours here (as far as the guidance shift vs. an update to their forecast). With regards to snowstorms, that's a reasonable amount of time. Especially considering that the full suite of 12z guidance isn't even out yet; with the NAM as aggressive as it is right now and the GFS seemingly heading in the same direction, it's sensible to want to see the Euro to round out the full picture before issuing anything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Their credibility is just as bad if they are forecasting 1-2" today and we get 6-10" tomorrow

Maybe with people like you, who hold a constant vigil on the entire pantheon of guidance, from the 12 EURO, to the rogue 03z ARW member of the SREF that submerges the Tobin in a 50' drift.

 

The gradual shifts convey a sense of stability and continuity to the general public, who are more apt to react critically to larger shifts.....there is a psychological element at play here.....after all, these products are being distributed to human beings....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Guess it's time to take notice in CNE

sref-01-20-2014-9z-sno.jpg

SREF's going with a nice compact range of outcomes, 0-34"

We are CNE in these types of events and NNE in the gradient pattern.

Eager to read GYX's take this afternoon.  I might have to spend the night in CON tomorrow night instead of Webster.  What is your sense of how much apf we get around con?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

We're talking a matter of a few hours here (as far as the guidance shift vs. an update to their forecast). With regards to snowstorms, that's a reasonable amount of time. Especially considering that the full suite of 12z guidance isn't even out yet; with the NAM as aggressive as it is right now and the GFS seemingly heading in the same direction, it's sensible to want to see the Euro to round out the full picture before issuing anything.

Bingo. Guys the BOX stuff is ridiculous. Focus on the storm. The forecast won't just immediately update itself after the NAM comes out. Wait till you see the entire 4pm package and then comment. There's always this lag time between models and forecasts, but the weenies want a big snow map and warnings and the whole nine yards NOW!

They could be in the office thinking the same exact thing as you guys, but you'll find out at 4pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

We're talking a matter of a few hours here (as far as the guidance shift vs. an update to their forecast). With regards to snowstorms, that's a reasonable amount of time. Especially considering that the full suite of 12z guidance isn't even out yet; with the NAM as aggressive as it is right now and the GFS seemingly heading in the same direction, it's sensible to want to see the Euro to round out the full picture before issuing anything.

A lot of folks on here yearn for the instant gratification of seeing an immediate feedback between observing heavy QPF output, and seeing large numbers on the 6 0'clock news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Speak for yourself. I'd certainly like to see unanimity in the 12z runs.

Well we already know all the problems it's had this year..so it will def come NW..but it's still going to only show a light to maybe moderate event while everything else shows moderate to major..so it's just another piece..You don't base or change forecasts on it like you used to

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Bingo. Guys the BOX stuff is ridiculous. Focus on the storm. The forecast won't just immediately update itself after the NAM comes out. Wait till you see the entire 4pm package and then comment. There's always this lag time between models and forecasts, but the weenies want a big snow map and warnings and the whole nine yards NOW!

They could be in the office thinking the same exact thing as you guys, but you'll find out at 4pm.

Most people don't need to be told this, Scott.   Weenie's gon ween

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

Bingo!  Box looks bad in 2 consecutive storms

 

What's more foolish: delaying a forecast update a few hours to be more comprehensive with your forecast, or issuing judgment prior to a final forecast in advance of the actual event occurring to give means of assessment?

 

For the record, that question is a rhetorical one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
leesun

leesun

Posted
Posted

Maybe with people like you, who hold a constant vigil on the entire pantheon of guidance, from the 12 EURO, to the rogue 03z ARW member of the SREF that submerges the Tobin in a 50' drift.

 

The gradual shifts convey a sense of stability and continuity to the general public, who are more apt to react critically to larger shifts.....there is a psychological element at play here.....after all, these products are being distributed to human beings....

You didn't think that their AM product was too conservative after last night's guidance, except for the Euro?  They are going to have to up it now regardless on what the 12z Euro shows.  Even showing 4-6" now is better than continuing the 1-2".  The impact has to be conveyed to the general public is all I am saying

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Well we already know all the problems it's had this year..so it will def come NW..but it's still going to only show a light to maybe moderate event while everything else shows moderate to major..so it's just another piece..You don't base or change forecasts on it like you used to

it's within 24 hrs now anyway...Euro was always the most useful 3+ days out....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...