January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

[ORH_wxman]

No doubt a strong frontogenesis signature. The issue is just how far northwest the best lift will get. We're right on the fence.

 

Once you get deeper in the fronto circulation there's going to be a really sweet band of high ratio ripping... guessing UUU to BOS?

 

 

Yeah I-95 is looking pretty good for the banding sweet spot right now...somewhere in there. Probably gets in on SE CT too and the coastal areas over to like HVN.

[SouthCoastMA]

I just hope this doesn't tick south and east like the 2-3rd system had.

Even if it did, you would still end up getting crushed

[Damage In Tolland]

No doubt a strong frontogenesis signature. The issue is just how far northwest the best lift will get. We're right on the fence.

 

Once you get deeper in the fronto circulation there's going to be a really sweet band of high ratio ripping... guessing UUU to BOS?

Maybe ORH to HPN?

[Ginx snewx]

I just hope this doesn't tick south and east like the 2-3rd system had.

Tickle me elmo , wagons west

[jamesnichols1989]

Even if it did, you would still end up getting crushed

 

True.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah I-95 is looking pretty good for the banding sweet spot right now...somewhere in there. Probably gets in on SE CT too and the coastal areas over to like HVN.

12/21/09 distribution?

[N. OF PIKE]

Even if it did, you would still end up getting crushed

Yeah James u are good

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I just hope this doesn't tick south and east like the 2-3rd system had.

U dont worry....even a tick se u still start the engine.

[HoarfrostHubb]

No doubt a strong frontogenesis signature. The issue is just how far northwest the best lift will get. We're right on the fence.

 

Once you get deeper in the fronto circulation there's going to be a really sweet band of high ratio ripping... guessing UUU to BOS?

I was thinking Westerly/whatever in CT touches Westerly, up through Scituate or so...

[mahk_webstah]

Alex,  I'll take  "deformation bands well nw of the low" for 300!

[Modfan]

When Michael (forky) gets naked..everyone's clothes come off

[HoarfrostHubb]

Alex,  I'll take  "deformation bands well nw of the low" for 300!

You and I def need well N & W... but we should see something at least...

[ORH_wxman]

12/21/09 distribution?

 

 

That system was garbage for most of us int he interior...hopefully no repeat.

[MJHUB]

PVD looking excellent bout time ri doesnt get suckered

[mahk_webstah]

You and I def need well N & W... but we should see something at least...

unfortunately those bands usually form well up into NY or VT

[ORH_wxman]

unfortunately those bands usually form well up into NY or VT

 

 

Not in this one they aren't.

[moneypitmike]

Alex,  I'll take  "deformation bands well nw of the low" for 300! 75 miles.

[SnowMan]

You and I def need well N & W... but we should see something at least...

GFS show .25 to .5 QPF back your way and my way.  With good ratios we will be fine...

[amarshall]

Duxbury Destroyer.   Might be stretching the legs on the new generator.

[mahk_webstah]

Not in this one they aren't.

You know what I mean, right?  In these coastal storms sometimes 1-95 is getting pounded but then there is this deform band that sits way nw and rots.  Will there be some kind of deform band well inland in this storm or is the setup wrong/too progressive?

[Damage In Tolland]

Sref probs have 30- 50% of 12+ over a large area from Philly right up thru the heart of SNE

[mahk_webstah]

GFS show .25 to .5 QPF back your way and my way.  With good ratios we will be fine...

in this situation, 4 inches is a win for you and 2+ for me.  But this might not be done trending.  explosive deepening can mean more westerly track.  I think it might tick more west this pm but then go a bit se tomorrow morn.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Boom. Blizzard.

 

 

I think you're in for another double digit event.

[ORH_wxman]

Sref probs have 30- 50% of 12+ over a large area from Philly right up thru the heart of SNE

 

 

Problem with them is they have an over-amped bias. Those ARW members especially...unrealistic usually.

[dendrite]

You know what I mean, right?  In these coastal storms sometimes 1-95 is getting pounded but then there is this deform band that sits way nw and rots.  Will there be some kind of deform band well inland in this storm or is the setup wrong/too progressive?

The dynamics are just too far SE for us right now.

[SnowMan]

in this situation, 4 inches is a win for you and 2+ for me.  But this might not be done trending.  explosive deepening can mean more westerly track.  I think it might tick more west this pm but then go a bit se tomorrow morn.

Who knows - maybe we get a good deformation band...but trends look good so far. 

 

As far as I am concerned I would be fine with 4 inches although I would take more if it was given.  It is just good to add to the pack...

[Zeus]

Sref probs have 30- 50% of 12+ over a large area from Philly right up thru the heart of SNE

Are we looking at the same maps?

[jamesnichols1989]

I think Scott down through Phil and I could see 10-14" of snow.  Also lightning wouldn't be a surprise just off the coast, maybe even onto the coastline as the storm rapidly deepens overnight tuesday and Wednesday.

[forkyfork]

the banding signal is from ~philly - nyc - bos

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Are we looking at the same maps?

9z did have a 30% prob of 12" in a weenie spot in sw ct but nothing widespread. Cute colors to cuddle with but not a reason to start smearing the KY jelly.